Weekly Market Report 14 November 2018
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- Nora Reynolds
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1 Weekly Market Report 14 November 2018
2 USD/ZAR Exchange rate: The Rand is currently quoted at R14.43 per US Dollar, 36 cents weaker in the last week. The Rand has been on the back foot following the break of the support last week as a result of a stronger dollar. The Dollar has seen some support as the market anticipates further interest rate increases in the US. Globally the trade war is also having an effect on the Dollar as investors move their money towards save havens. Locally the embattled minister of home affairs Malusi Gigaba resigned yesterday which also supports the stance that the new dawn under President Ramaphosa will not tolerate corruption. Globally risk sentiment is subdued and will most likely improve if the meeting later this month between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart yield positive results. The Rand is currently finding resistance at the 50-day moving average R From a technical point of view, it appears as if the Rand has been oversold and this is supported by the fact that a doji star has formed which is a bearish candle stick formation.
3
4 Soya bean meal: Soya bean meal for Dec 2018 is currently trading at dollars per short ton down 7.1 dollars in the last week. Meal is still trading very range bound at this stage. This is a result of harvest pressure and the continuance of the uncertainty regarding the trade war. Technicals appear to want to push higher, however the trend remains bearish. Jan 2019 is trading at 307.1
5 Argentine soya bean meal premiums: Arg Premiums Sellers Buyers change sellers change buyers Nov -3 NO BUYERS 1 - Dec Jan +3/ May * Down * Up
6 Local Market: Dec 2018 change in last week Mar 2019 change in last week May 2019 change in last week Dec 2018 Mar 2019 May 2019 White maize Yellow Maize Wheat Sunflower Soya * Down * Up
7 Weather: Notes: 84% of the US maize crop has been harvested which is up from the 76% reported last week. 5-year average is at 87%. 88% of the US soybean crop has been harvested which is up from the 83% reported last week. 5-year average is at 93%. MIDWEST Cold and dry weather will favour the remaining harvest in the Western Midwest. The Eastern Midwest will however experience harvest delays. SOUTHERN PLAINS Cold conditions will slow winter wheat development. NORTHERN PLAINS Northern Plains harvest has a favourable pattern due to cold conditions which in turn will firm soils in wetter areas to allow progress. ARGENTINA Heavy rains in central areas will disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting and may force some replanting. Soil moisture supplies for developing crops are adequate to surplus. BRAZIL Developing soybeans will have favourable weather in central areas. Drier weather in southern Brazil favours planting. Soil moisture supplies are favourable for development Source: SAWB/GRADS/NASS/DTN/AWB/CWB/Intellicast/FNMOC/Unisys/DTN/NOAA/YR/KBWS/Wunderground/TWC/WordPress/WXRisk/Drovers/TWC/AGBoM/w eather/accuweather/spc/noaa/soybeansandcorn/windy/agrimoney/agweb/blackseagrain/ec.europa.eu/timeanddate/yr/myweather2/meteox/meteoblu e/intellica st/iweathar
8 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT TO WXMAPS.ORG GFS= Global Forecast System Available at:
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