Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and water stress in Uttaranchal state, India

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1 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and water stress in Uttaranchal state, India Ulka Kelkar, TERI International workshop on climate change and sustainable development 7-8 April 2006, New Delhi

2 Water and agriculture Greatest vulnerability in unsustainably managed ecosystems that are currently water stressed (IPCC) General reduction in quantity of available runoff in all river basins, except Narmada and Tapi (Natcom); Ganges and Krishna basins show major declining trends (Indo-UK) Increased summer snowmelt and decline in snow storage in dry season MDG target Halve by 2015 the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Halve proportion of people without safe drinking water by 2015 X Plan goals 4% pa growth of agricultural GDP [3.2% in , 2.6% in , 1.8% in ]

3 Projected impact of climate change on rainfall in Lakhwar sub-basin 180 Frequency analysis of daily rainfall intensities over two time periods Frequency (in days) > Heavier intensity rainfall that generate runoff reduce in number Light intensity rainfall that get lost in satisfying soil moisture needs as well as in meeting ET demands increase in number <1-0.1 Rainfall intensity July ( ) July ( ) August ( ) August ( ) Narula and Bhadwal (2003)

4 Research questions What is the capacity of households in the study region to cope with current climatic variability and water stress? Are their responses only temporary coping measures, or would help them adapt in the long run? What are the possible scenarios of interventions that can help adapt to water stress due to climate change?

5 Study region Upper Yamuna sub-basin Simla SHIMLA UTTARKASHI Solan SOLAN Yashwant Nagar SIRMAUR Chakrata 5 DEHRADUN Damta Yamnotri Lakhwar watershed Dadahu Koti Lakhwar Mussorrie TEHRI GRAHWAL Outlets Linking stream added Outlet Streams Subbasins Digitized streams YAMUNA NAGAR Tajewala Dehradun Kilometers

6 A journey to Lakhwar

7 Agriculture in Uttaranchal hills Fragmented terraces - Equitable, if impoverished, land distribution Only 14% irrigated area in hill districts; 46% in foothills and plains Tradition of water harvesting neglect and disrepair Springs are drying up - too little too much Migration lack of labour

8 Identification of water stressed areas

9 Water balance modelling SWAT surface runoff, soil moisture development and lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge MODFLOW groundwater movement

10 Areas 1 and 2 are most water stressed Chhotau Lakhwar

11 Preliminary observations from participatory case studies Lakhwar Chhotau

12 Caste stratification and land holdings Harijan, Hindu, Brahman, Vaishya, Harijan, Joshi, Rajput, (a) Lakhwar village Average landholding size 2.5 ha (b) Chhotau village Average landholding size 0.8 ha

13 Community perceptions about climate and water stress % of respondents Lakhwar Chhotau Rainfall has declined over the last years 90 % 87.5 % Onset of rainfall has bec ome late 65 % 25 % Onset of rainfall has bec ome erratic 32 % 69 % Earlier one could not see the stars throughout shravana Maize should have been planted by the beginning of June but the rains have been coming late every year As children, as soon as we saw rain, we would bring down the livestock from the hilly slopes, to save them from being drowned. Now the streams are all dry. But for many years there has been no snowfall in December. There is late snow in January-February which melts away and does not feed into the streams years it used to snow for stretches of 2-4 days when livestock were kept in the house and men would stay indoors and play cards. The snow was like manure knee deep snow that covered the ground and retained soil moisture underneath.

14 Stresses and coping measures Migratory stresses + price incentives Cropping pattern changed from 12 seeds to maize and cash crops Economic pressures Low returns High aspirations Ecological pressures Dependence on rainfall Reduced livestock ownership Reduced pulses cultivation Take loans, 10 Leave village, 0 Find other jobs, 17 Plant less waterintensive crops, 10 Sell livestock, 1 Irrigate fields, 2 Sell land, 1 Sell valuables, 0 Average annual hh income reported Lakhwar Harijan USD 428 Lakhwar Rajput USD 1621 Chhotau Harijan USD 380 Chhotau Brahmin USD 408

15 Group discussions and timelines

16 Coping with current water levels Enhancement of water supply Alternatives to agriculture Adaptation interventions identified by agricultural households in Lakhwar Grow pulses for self consumption and enhancement of soil nitrogen Make and sell organic manure like Dhanpau women s society Grow fruit-bearing trees (e.g. reetha which doesn t need much water but has commercial value for soaps and shampoos) on barren land Resume cultivation of mundhwa which can be used in baby food and wine, and jhangura which is used in pillows Teach agriculture, horticulture, and dairy farming in high school Extension workers should visit to provide expert advice e.g. farmers could grow 2-month hybrid maize instead of 3-month maize to cope with the late onset of the monsoon Reforestation of the hills following the example of Mussoorie. Incentives to village panchayats in the form of recognition or rewards for reforestation or preventing forest fires. Rainwater harvesting to serve needs in pre-monsoon months Completion of the Lakhwar dam will not bring irrigation to the village but will raise the water table, enhance soil moisture, and rejuvenate forests Consolidation of land is essential for commercial plantations and fruit orchards that are key to the prosperity of Himachal Pradesh Primary education standards need to be drastically improved; the key issue is regular attendance of teachers who are unwilling to live in remote areas. Vocational training Promotion of tourism Adaptation interventions identified by agricultural households in Chhotau Cultivation of medicinal / aromatic plants, horticulture on barren patches Rainwater harvesting storage tank (This can be supplemented by constructing irrigation channels, check dams, and percolation ponds) Education and employment Vocational training sewing, needlework Matchstick factory Value addition enterprises (like packaging, juicemaking, processing of medicinal plants)

17 Insights and scope for further work Insights Mismatch between top-down policy prescription and ground-level realities and aspirations Key determinants of vulnerability e.g. caste (and not land holdings) limits adaptation options Coping measures may increase vulnerability inadequate to deal with prolonged stress Scope Pilot testing of participatory approach - Programme of participatory research on adaptation responses evolved by affected communities

18 Thank you START, IIASA, Packard Foundation SMTA (Society for Motivational Training and Action) People of Lakhwar and Chhotau