Adapting to Change, Forming New Habits

Transcription

1 1 Adapting to Change, Forming New Habits Community Summary of the Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the RDA Barossa Region 1

2 The region The Barossa RDA (Regional Development Australia) Region is famous for wine production, its regional food culture and livestock, grains and horticulture farming. It has a wealth of natural assets and a community that is rapidly growing on the fringes of the Metropolitan Adelaide. These characteristics underpin a vision for the region which is enhanced quality of life for all, derived through quality jobs in quality environments: cultural, social, ecological and economic. Why develop a Climate Change Adaptation Plan? The RDA Barossa region naturally experiences a variable climate, which has shaped its community, landscape, and farming practices for generations, resulting in great resilience to climate variability. This is demonstrated by the development of significant and innovative water management infrastructure to respond to the variable rainfall and water supply. However, there is a need to prepare for a different future climate. Climate change is projected to lead to a region with warmer summers, most likely warmer and drier winters, more frequent heatwaves, less frequent frosts, and higher sea levels on the coast. Recognising the challenge that future climate change presents will be important for ensuring the region s wealth of natural assets, tourism reputation, and community needs are adequately met in the long-term. The RDA Barossa, the Barossa Council, Light Regional Council, the District Council of Mallala, Barossa Grape & Wine Association and Natural Resources Adelaide and Mount Lofty Ranges have together developed a Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan. The Plan reflects the Region s commitment to adapting to climate change and continues the work started following signing of the Barossa Regional Sector Agreement on climate change in March 2011 by RDA Barossa. The aim of the Plan is to show how the region can build resilience to the impacts of climate change and make sure the region is adaptive and sustainable and continues to be a place where people want to live, visit, invest, and conduct business. The Plan also addresses the requirements of the Climate Change Adaptation Framework for South Australia to develop a regional adaptation plan. This summary version of the Plan provides an overview of the process used to develop it, the type of changes in the region s climate that can be expected and priority adaptation actions. We first make our habits, then our habits make us. John Dryden 1 This Community Summary document has been prepared by Seed Consulting Services for the RDA Barossa, based on the Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the RDA Barossa Region. The full version of the Plan is available at: 2

3 How was the Plan developed? Development of the Plan started by reviewing the results of the Central Government Region Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (IVA) (Balston, et al., 2011). While the RDA Barossa Region is located within this area, a Barossa-focussed IVA was undertaken given the unique nature of the Region s economy, environment and community compared with the broader Central Government Region. The project was undertaken in two more stages (Figure 1): an integrated vulnerability assessment used to identify key areas of decision making, and identification and prioritisation of adaptation actions within and between sectors. Figure 1. Key steps taken in the development of the Adaptation Plan. Significant work has already been undertaken in the Region to understand how the climate may change in the future and how different sectors can respond (Balston, et al., 2011). Development of the Plan was informed by the experience and local knowledge of stakeholders from across key sectors who attended a project workshop. 3

4 How will climate change affect the region? Climate change is a consequence of the release of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide into the Earth s atmosphere. Greenhouse gases trap the sun s energy in the Earth s atmosphere leading to changes in the global climate. BOX 1. What is the evidence that the Earth s climate is changing? In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world s leading international body for the assessment of climate change, said that: warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia; each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 when detailed temperature records began; continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system; and limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2013). Changes in the Australian climate have already been observed over the past 100 years; the nation s annual average surface air temperature has increased by about 0.2ºC per decade since 1950, while rainfall has shown a variable but gradual decline. Based on the most common estimate projections (median) for a medium emissions scenario 1, general climate change trends for the region include: Temperatures in the region will rise Temperatures will rise by ºC by 2030 and C by 2070; Rainfall likely to decline - the majority of climate models suggest a reduction in annual average rainfall of % by 2030 and 10-20% by 2070; Fire risk will increase - There will be an increase in the frequency and intensity of fire risk in many, but not all, parts of the region (e.g. particularly in the hills, and less so in the coastal areas); Heatwave frequency will increase - While projections on the occurrence of heat waves for the Barossa are not available, based on work completed in other regions of South Australia it can be expected that the frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase in the future (SKM, 2013); Frost and freezing conditions to decline Due to increasing annual average temperatures, and particularly increased average winter temperatures, the incidence of frost is expected to decline in the region; 1 Unless stated otherwise, projections are based on a medium emissions scenario and baseline conditions refer to the period

5 Sea levels will rise - Sea levels rose across the globe by 21 cm from 1880 to Global mean sea level rise to relative to could be 0.26 m. Within the region, a rise in sea levels by up to 0.48m is projected by Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf St Vincent will rise - By the ocean s temperatures could rise by about 1.4 C (under a medium emissions outlook) relative to The amount of change in water temperature in St Vincent s Gulf is less clear given that this area is shallower than the surrounding ocean and more directly influenced by air temperatures and incident solar radiation. Sea water ph will decline - The best estimate is for global oceanic ph to decrease (i.e. become more acidic) by a 0.2 ph unit (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013). This compares with a 0.1 ph unit decrease that has already been experienced since the beginning of the industrial era about 250 years ago. BOX 2. Key climate changes in the Barossa RDA The Barossa RDA region will most likely be impacted by climate change through a warmer and drier climate, with increased heatwaves and bushfires, decreased frost frequency, rising sea levels along the coast, and warmer marine waters with lower ph. Priorities for adaptation Based on the results of the IVA, it was agreed that the adaptation plan needed to focus on six key areas of decision making, with key priority areas and responsibilities for addressing each area being highly variable (Table 1). The key areas of decision making have been informed by the indicators of higher vulnerability identified in the IVA and by considering values for the Region as expressed in the RDA Roadmap and Councils Strategic Plans. They are structured to address multiple indicators that ranked as having high to very high vulnerability to climate change (Table 2). 5

6 Table 1. Summary of the highest priority adaptation options, and responsibilities, for each key area of decision making. The complete list of options may be found in the Adaptation Plan 1. DEWNR = Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources. Key area of decision making Highest priority adaptation options Responsibilities 1. Viticulture: How can viticulture maintain quality and production levels given changing climatic conditions that are likely to result in warmer and drier conditions and more frequent bushfires? Community scale fire prevention and implementation, to ensure the community is more aware in preparing for fires and recognising how fire could affect the whole region. Whole property management, to manage the various elements of a property for fire risk, water resources, native vegetation, biodiversity, ecosystem services, vineyards and infrastructure. Zone Emergency Management Committee with support from DEWNR Barossa Viticultural Technical Group and Barossa Grape and Wine with the support of Local Government, RDA Barossa and DEWNR Water demand management, to address the interaction between water demand and electricity supply, such as during periods of extreme heat. RDA Barossa with support from Local Government, State Government, Barossa Grape and Wine, industries, utilities and other manufacturers. 2. Water resources management: How can we maintain water security and increase the availability of reuse water for irrigation? Address water security issues, to secure irrigation based enterprises in the future and provide more water to develop and maintain urban open space areas. RDA Barossa, Barossa Grape and Wine and DEWNR How can we maintain water security and increase the availability of water for irrigation given projected climate changes which will impact water from all sources, local groundwater levels, and the quantity and quality of surface water in creeks, rivers and dams? Focus on research into new water use efficiency measures, to help reduce the risks posed by a warmer and drier climate. Promote water reuse schemes, to provide more water for a variety of different users in the region. Partnership of industry members, research providers (e.g. SARDI) and RDA Barossa Local Government, industry users and RDA Barossa 1 RDA Barossa (2014) RDA Barossa Region Climate Change Adaptation Plan. Prepared for RDA Barossa by Seed Consulting Services. 6

7 3. Community services: How can we support flexible and adaptive services to maintain access to community centres and educational facilities during hotter summers and extreme events such as heat waves and bushfires? 4. Biodiversity management: How can we maintain biodiversity and habitats for native flora and fauna in the Region given the rising threats of a warmer and drier climate, increased risk of bushfire and rising sea levels? 5. Emergency services management: How can we maintain resources and governance arrangements required for emergency services management in the Region as supply of volunteers potentially declines and there is increasing demand for support because of extreme events? 6. Manufacturing: How can we maintain gross regional product from manufacturing in the face of increasingly frequent extreme events and projected unreliability of electricity supplies as well as risks to inputs? Mandate appropriate climate sensitive design of infrastructure, especially in private and public buildings. Develop a community services oriented emergency response plan, which outlines how to provide back-up water and electricity supplies. Passive and active adaptation measures such as bushfire planning, supporting landholders to manage native vegetation on private properties, community awareness raising, addressing current and emerging threats and protecting and improving refugia. Transformational adaptation measures are more relevant to the coastal and plains areas and will require preparatory work to begin now for what could be major changes in biodiversity management strategies in the future. Improve community awareness of and preparation for hazards consistent with the SES approach to hazard management. Increase volunteering in the community starting with the development of a Barossa Volunteering Strategy Planning to manage future shifts in local labour markets, because of changes to work flows and labour markets. Developing alternate water supplies and back-up power, to provide greater essential services security for local businesses. Diversifying the range of businesses in the region, to provide greater regional employment and wealth opportunity Local Government Association with the support of the Planning Institute of Australia, architects, building designers, local construction and design industries and educational bodies Local and State Government with the support of Emergency services, local service groups, and NGO care providers. Natural Resources Adelaide and Mount Lofty Ranges with support from Local Government DEWNR (including Natural Resources Adelaide and Mount Lofty Ranges) with the support of research institutions State emergency services State emergency services RDA Barossa in collaboration with industry groups RDA Barossa, industry groups and essential service providers RDA Barossa in collaboration with industry groups 7

8 Table 2. Results from the Integrated Vulnerability Assessment analysis showing relative vulnerability of indicators to climate change impacts in the region. Vulnerability scores for indicators have been colour-coded according to the following scoring categories: very low (<4), low (=4 > 8), medium (=8 > 12), high (=12 > 16), or very high (>16). Indicators are listed under one of the three triple bottom line elements (i.e. social, economic, or environment), noting that a number of the indicators could appear in multiple categories (e.g. surface water could be presented under environmental or economic). Primary Indicator & Relative Vulnerability Economic Viticulture Forestry Surface water Irrigated agriculture Manufacturing Horticulture (fresh produce/vegetables) Electricity supply Telecommunications Buildings Rail Horticulture (tree crops) Broadacre crops Construction and engineering Tourism Mining Roads Retail trade Beef, dairy, sheep and wool production Water infrastructure Business and personal services Primary Indicator & Relative Vulnerability Environment Landscape fragmentation Regional native fauna Regional native flora Surface water Regional native vegetation communities Water dependant ecosystems Land condition Social Education Emergency management Health Land assets Existing social capital Community planning and development Social inclusion In addition to the key area of decision making themes listed above, addressing the impact of sea level rise on coastal settlements was identified as a priority for the region. However, this is being addressed through a complementary planning process being led by District Council of Mallala (Western & Kellett, 2014). The identification of these six key areas of decision making does not mean that other assets, services or characteristics of the region are not vulnerable to climate change, but that they were assessed to be less vulnerable than those listed. The cross sectoral nature of adaptation priorities suggest that coordinated preparation and planning for climate extremes and continued innovation in water resources management are central to the region s adaptation strategy. 8

9 The Plan presents priority adaptation actions in relation to these key areas of decision making. A combination of project team, stakeholder and steering committee input was used to identify the highest priority adaptation actions for the region. Of these, the following were found to have regional-scale significance: 1. Whole property management (integrated, property scale fire, water, native vegetation and infrastructure planning); 2. Water efficiency measures; 3. Back-up water and power supplies; 4. Community scale emergency response planning; 5. Climate sensitive design of infrastructure, especially buildings; and 6. Water reuse, with a focus on stormwater management and aquifer storage and recovery. Implementing the Plan Implementing adaptation options identified in this Plan should consider: Linking new actions with existing programs; Showing that some actions provide benefits beyond just climate change adaptation; Developing a clear business case to address concerns that the cost of acting is too high; Presenting adaptation strategies as part of a broader plan to build economic resilience; Reviewing policies to ensure that they support emerging adaptation actions; Educating professionals about new and innovative responses (e.g. building design); and Community awareness raising to address perception issues, such as fit for purpose water quality requirements. Further information Further information on how the region can adapt and the sources of information on which the Plan and this summary are based can be found at How do I get involved? Do you want to get more involved in working in the community to respond to climate change? If so, contact RDA Barossa on

10 References Balston, J. M., Billington, K., Cowan, H., Hayman, P., Kosturjak, A., Milne, T., et al. (2011). Central Local Government Region Integrated Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. South Australia. IPCC. (2013). Summary for policymakers. In IPCC, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G. -K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, et al. (Eds.), Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. SKM. (2013). Climate Change Adaptation to Vulnerability Project. South Australian Murray-Darling Basin NRM Region. Climate Change Scenarios Report (Project VW07280). South Australia: SA MDB NRM, South Australia Western, M., & Kellett, J. (2014). Coastal Settlements Adaptation Study. Stage 1: State of Play. South Australia: University of South Australia, School of Natural and Built Environments Institute for Urban Renewal, South Australia 10