Florida Statewide Agricultural Irrigation Demand (FSAID): Predicting the amounts and spatial distribution of irrigation water use (2015 to 2035)

Transcription

1 Florida Statewide Agricultural Irrigation Demand (FSAID): Predicting the amounts and spatial distribution of irrigation water use (2015 to 2035) 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference

2 Florida s Water Management Districts 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 2

3 Florida s Water Supply Planning Process Created by the Florida Legislature in 1997 (Chapter , Laws of Florida) Every five years needs and sources are assessed for a 20- year period, and any deficit must be addressed in a regional water supply plan by identifying sufficient new sources to meet future needs and to protect minimum flows and levels The product of these political clashes was a statutory scheme purposefully designed to increase water resources. For the first time, the state s water policy focused on the development of water resources and water supply, rather than merely allocating water among competing users. (Matthews and Nieto, 1998, FSU Law Review) 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 3

4 Central Florida Water Initiative (CFWI) Orlando Tampa Orlando Miami

5 Issues with CFWI Demand Projections Significant variation among the three WMDs in water use estimates for the same crop, at the district and county level Interface of urban development and agricultural irrigation demand. Significant crop trends not accounted for. Example: Blueberry production has increased to meet demand in a period between April 1 and May 20 when Florida is the primary producer of fresh blueberries in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 10-year period , production increased from 2.7 million pounds to 7.8 million pounds and acreage more than doubled. Existing blueberry acreage was not accounted for and negligible growth was projected AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 5

6 FDACS Role in Water Supply Planning Based on issues that arose during the CFWI planning process, the Florida Legislature assigned FDACS the responsibility of estimating future agricultural water supply demands. Section (2), Florida Statutes, directs the department to establish an agricultural water supply planning program. In estimating future demand, appropriate conservation measures must be accounted for and significant uncertainties evaluated. Section (2), Florida Statutes, directs the WMDs to consider FDACS estimates in determining the best available data for agricultural self-supplied water needs to be included in their regional water supply plans. Any adjustments or deviation must be explained in the plan, and the original estimates must be presented with the adjusted estimates AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 6

7 FSAID Florida Statewide Agriculture Irrigation Demand Contracted with The Balmoral Group to develop methodology and project estimates of future agricultural water supply demand FSAID 1.0 completed June 2014 FSAID 2.0 completed June 2015 Significant changes included using available water use data rather than usage based on the Agricultural Field Scale Irrigation Requirements Simulation (AFSIRS) model, a single scenario, and explicitly modeling silviculture conversion 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 7

8 FSAID 2.0 Goal Develop agricultural water use estimates including their spatial distribution 2015 to 2035 using a consistent approach statewide Approach Use measured irrigation water use to develop a water use model that links economic and biophysical factors; economic factors allow future prices and input costs to impact water use estimates 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 8

9 Factors in Water Demand Model Irrigation Weather Crop Soils Engineering Economic Land Use Pressures Economic Economic Unirrigated Land Crop Prices 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 9

10 Econometric Model Replicate Water use Simulate Future conditions Project Future Demand Y = β 0 + β 1 (RF) + β 2 (ET)+ β 3 (NP) + β 4 (PERIRR) + β 6 (IRR) + β 5 (FF) +β L L + ε Y = water use (million gallons per year, calculated at the field scale), RF is rainfall, ET is evapotranspiration, NP is a Crop-specific revenue variable, PERIRR is the percentage of permitted acreage that is irrigated, IRR is a dummy representing the type of irrigation system, and FF is a dummy indicating if the field had a freeze-protected crop and was in an area of freeze for the year of water use in question, L is a vector of location attributes including Latitude/Longitude coordinates from GIS and Water Management District dummies AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 10

11 Trend toward increased utilization of land 30% Historical Irrig./Ag 25% 20% 15% 10% NWFWMD SRWMD SJRWMD SWFWMD SFWMD 5% 0% 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference

12 Irrigated share of total permitted area used in model development: Unirrigated land & Land use pressures 100% 90% Irrigated Share of Total Permitted Area 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 52% 58% 69% 76% 86% 0% NWFWMD SRWMD SFWMD SJRWMD SWFWMD 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 12

13 % of total irrigated polygons with water use data validated for model development: ranges from 4% to 15% of total irrigated area by district % Irrigated polygons used for model development WMD ILG Polygons ILG Polygons with ILG Polygons with Valid ILG Polygons in (FSAID2) Meter Data (FSAID2) Meter Data (FSAID2) Dataset (FSAID2) NWFWMD 1, SFWMD 6,721 1,119 1, SJRWMD 5, SRWMD 1, SWFWMD 11,082 1,336 1,296 1,073 FL Total 26,236 3,186 2,902 2,531 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 12% 15% 4% NWFWMD SFWMD SJRWMD SRWMD SWFWMD 8% 10% 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 13

14 % of total irrigated area with water use data validated for model development: ranges from 3% to 19% of total irrigated area by district % Irrigated Area used for model development WMD ILG Acreage ILG Acreage with ILG Acreage with Valid ILG Acreage in Dataset (FSAID2) Meter Data (FSAID2) Meter Data (FSAID2) (FSAID2) NWFWMD 56,829 26,956 10,791 10,747 SFWMD 1,045, , , ,224 SJRWMD 177,371 6,122 5,781 5,753 SRWMD 123,956 10,416 10,416 10,346 SWFWMD 396,459 69,949 66,900 66,114 FL Total 1,800, , , ,184 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 19% 13% 3% NWFWMD SFWMD SJRWMD SRWMD SWFWMD 8% 17% 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 14

15 Statewide Geodatabase of 2015 Irrigated Lands: crop, irrigation, soils, rainfall, ET Florida total cropland area: 8,508,719 acres, 147,000 fields Florida irrigated area: 1,800,312 acres, 27,000 fields

16 FSAID Outcomes Geodatabase (spatial dataset, ): o Irrigated areas o Water use: irrigation, livestock, cold protection o Conservation potential Agricultural Water Use: Florida 2015 Agricultural Irrigation: 2,132 MGD Cold Protection: Livestock: Aquaculture: 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 97.1 MGD 38.4 MGD 5.5 MGD 16

17 Projected Acreage Change Projected MGD Change Projections: 5% increase in irrigated acreage but 17% increase in water use Change % Change Acres MGD Acres MGD Acres MGD Acres MGD NWFWMD 56, , , % 29% SFWMD 1,045,697 1,237 1,129,211 1,448 83, % 17% SJRWMD 177, , , % 7% SRWMD 123, , , % 41% SWFWMD 396, AWRA 369,888 Annual Water 611 Resources Conference -26, % 14% Statewide 1,800,312 2,132 1,885,453 2,491 85, % 17% 17

18 Relative changes in agricultural water demand by county Counties > 15 MGD 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 18

19 Irrigation: inches/year AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 19

20 Citrus: 2015, inches/year Field Crops: 2015, inches/year Vegetable: 2015, inches/year Hay/Pasture: 2015, inches/year 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 20

21 Irrigation types: statewide FLORIDA FLORIDA, unsweetened

22 Irrigation types: by district NWFWMD SRWMD SFWMD SJRWMD SWFWMD

23 Crops: by district NWFWMD SFWMD, with sugar SFWMD SJRWMD SRWMD SWFWMD

24 FSAID Outcomes User interface: FSAID2.com 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 24

25 Other uses of Data Water Supply Planning Alternative water supplies limited Targeting Best Management Practices Incentives to match need to funding Policy implications: Areas to encourage/discourage new farming activity? Areas affected by changes in state water policy Areas affected by citrus greening, imports Understanding behavior Crop choices vs. revenues vs. location Understanding efficiencies Actual equipment outcomes vs. published efficiency ratios 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 25

26 Questions 2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference 26