Risks and Opportunities for the Agriculture of the Alpine Region in a changing climate

Transcription

1 Risks and Opportunities for the Agriculture of the Alpine Region in a changing climate Pierluigi Calanca Daniele Torriani, Stéphanie Schmid, Patrick Lazzarotto, Karsten Jasper, Sybille Dueri, Jürg Fuhrer Agroscope, Zurich, Switzerland 1

2 The pink elephant? Swiss Agriculture $ub$idie$ 2

3 Kill it? Swiss Agriculture $ub$idie$ 3

4 Agriculture in the Alpine region: a future? opportunities benefits demand food crops production Alps World risks costs supply 4

5 The global context Porter and Semenov (2005) Developing countries are (overall) more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries World population is increasing, in particular in the developing world Under global warming, crop production in regions such as southern Europe, the Indo-Gangetic plane or China is at risk Consideration should be given to the situation where crop production in [central] and northern Europe needs to be increased. 5

6 The global context Ewert et al. (2005) It has been calculated that in order to meet future demands, cereal yields in developed countries will have to increase by 32% in 2020 compared to Olesen and Bindi (2002) Food crop productivity 6

7 Crops: biophysical response to climate increasing CO 2 positive effect on assimilation increasing T positive effects on grassland (overall extension of the growing season) but negative effects on seasonal crops (shortening of time available for grain filling); decreasing summer precipitation negative impact 7

8 Food crop productivity 12 Maize Yield (t ha -1 ) Yield (t ha -1 ) 2 0 Irrigated Rainfed Baseline CC- CC+ Simulations with cropping system model CropSyst (Torriani et al., submit.) 8

9 Yield stability Vidale et al. (in press) 10 Maize Wheat Canola 8 Yield (t ha -1 ) Baseline CC- CM- CC+ CM+ Baseline CC- CM- CC+ CM+ Baseline CC- CM- CC+ CM+ Simulations with cropping system model CropSyst (Torriani et al., submit.) 9

10 Summer droughts: the 2003 event (Neftel et al.) 14 billions US $ losses in Europe (SwissRe, 2004) 400 millions US $ losses in Switzerland 10

11 Droughts: occurrence and severity ~ 18 % ~ 50 % severity level Calanca (2006) 11

12 Regional patters Jasper et al. (2004) 12

13 Other issues: environmental impacts GHG emissions, leaching, environment/climate cropping system T, precip, radiation, Dueri et al (2006) 13

14 Environmental impacts without adaptation with adaptation Dueri et al (2006) 14

15 Adaptation: simple measures 12 Maize 10 Yield [t ha -1 ] CC Sowing date earlier sowing Simulations with cropping system model CropSyst (Torriani et al., submit.) 15

16 Adaptation: breeding Maize Wheat Canola 12 Yield [t ha -1 ] CC+ -10% +20% +40% CC+ -10% +20% +40% CC+ -10% +20% +40% GDD GDD GDD Increasing thermal time (heat) requirements Simulations with cropping system model CropSyst (Torriani et al., submit.) 16

17 Time perspective(s) ΔT IPCC Breeders Decision makers (WTO) Farmers Time 17

18 Uncertainties C. Frei (pers. comm.) 18

19 Uncertainties Risk of drought threshold for irrigation Time 19

20 Thank you 20