Crop calorie supply under climate change and vulnerability to drought events at +2 C of global warming threshold in Europe
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1 Crop calorie supply under climate change and vulnerability to drought events at +2 C of global warming threshold in Europe Juraj Balkovič, Rastislav Skalský, Christian Folberth, Nikolay Khabarov, Erwin Schmid, Mikuláš Madaras, Michael Obersteiner, and Marijn van der Velde IIASA, BOKU, CRI, JRC
2 Outline Methods Tools validation Vulnerability to drought events Impact of a +2 C global warming Bracketing uncertainties
3 Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model
4 EPIC-IIASA GGCM to simulate agricultural systems at large scale EU-version gridded at 1-km resolution (Balkovič et al. 2013)
5 EPIC-IIASA GGCM Agricultural crop calorie yield y t,p,s,c = 1 f c,p Y t,p,s = k c=1 g c y t,p,s,c y(r t,p,s,c + f c,p y(i t,p,s,c y t,p,s,c simulated crop yield (in t ha -1 ) c crop (maize, wheat, rye, barley, rapeseed, sunflower, sugar beet, potato, soya, rice) p grid cell, s climate change scenario t year y(r), y(i) simulated crop yield under rainfed (r) and irrigated conditions (i) f c,p fraction of irrigated area of the c-th crop in the p-th grid, Y t,p,s aggregated calorie yield (in Gcal ha 1 ) k number of crops g c calorie content in the unit yield BAU: BAU-fertilization and irrigation (Balkovič et al. 2013; Wriedt et al. 2009) POT-RF: yield potential for rainfed systems POT-IR: yield potential for irrigated systems and environments not limited by water
6 Outline Methods Tools validation Vulnerability to drought events Impact of a +2 C global warming Bracketing uncertainties
7 MODEL VALIDATION Long-term historical crop calorie yields CGMS weather data from 1990 to 2000 Aggregated at EU NUTS2 regions (EPIC vs EUROSTAT)
8 MODEL VALIDATION Anomalies in crop calorie yields due to drought events Heat wave and drought 2003 Russo et al. (2015, ERL 10) EU R 2 = 0.62 P<0.003
9 EPIC-IIASA VALIDATION Anomalies in crop calorie yields due to drought events Heat wave and drought 2007 Russo et al. (2015, ERL 10) EU R 2 = 0.62 P<0.003
10 Outline Methods Tools validation Vulnerability to drought events Impact of a +2 C global warming Bracketing uncertainties
11 VULNERABILITY Concept of vulnerablity to drought events Yield vulnerability (V) is quantified as a fraction of crop yield that may be lost due to harmful effects of climate The meteorological drought was identified using SPEI (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2010) calculted monthly Drought: mean SPEI over the growing season < -1 (Van Oijen et al. 2014) Vulnerability to meteorological drought (Vd): Vd p = k c=1 1 n n t=1,s=1 g c y t,p,s,c k c=1 1 m m t=1,s=1 g c y t,p,s,c m years with SPEI < -1 n years with SPEI -1
12 VULNERABILITY Proof Of Concept mean SPEI of crop growing season regionalized index of drought Burgenland Lower Austria Carinthia drought Styria Salzburg FARM (ACRP 8 th Call Project)
13 VULNERABILITY SPEI to determine yield vulnerability 25% 44% FARM (ACRP 8 th Call Project)
14 Outline Methods Tools validation Vulnerability to drought events Impact of a +2 C global warming Bracketing uncertainties
15 +2 C WARMING Background The Quantifying Projected Impacts Under 2 C Warming (IMPACT2C) Project ( Bias-corrected data from EURO-CORDEX database form IMPACT2C CSC-REMO/MPI-ESM-LR (RCP 4.5) SMHI-RCA4/EC-EARTH (RCP 4.5) KNMI-RACMO22E/EC-EARTH (RCP 4.5) SMHI-RCA4/HadGEM2-ES (RCP 4.5) IPSL-WRF331F/IPSL-CM5A-MR (RCP 4.5) +2 C period when the 30-year running mean temperature calculated from the base period exceeds the +2 C threshold globally (Vautard et al., 2014)
16 +2 C WARMING Mean impact Robustness EURO-CORDEX-mean calories change Robustness across CC projections Conventional impact approach: BAU-scenario, all availbale cropland Full physiological impact of elevated atm. CO 2 Eastern EU Northern EU Southern EU Western EU
17 +2 C WARMING Drought vulnerability high vulnerability (> 40 Gcal/ha) in the Pannonian zone, namely Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary followed by Greece and Spain (> 30 Gcal/ha) Figure. Crop calorie yield distribution under +2 C (red: years with dry GS, blue: years with normal GS)
18 Outline Methods Tools validation Vulnerability to drought events Impact of a +2 C global warming Bracketing uncertainties
19 +2 C WARMING Projection uncertainty (T and CO 2 ) Uncertainty analysis of elevated CO 2 and temperature impacts (wheat example) KNMI projection Ample nutrients; rainfed and irrigated +200 ppm Kimball 2016 Asseng et al. 2014
20 +2 C WARMING Bracketing projection-specific uncertainties Soil degradation (D) Soil degradation with conservation practic. (Dc) Crop intensification (POT) Elevated CO 2 impact (+/- CO 2 ) Temperature impact +2 C period
21 Thank you for your attention!
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