Innovative Approaches and Tools for Improved Management of Floods and Droughts

Transcription

1 UNEP-DHI Water Webinar series Approaching the SDGs through Innovation in Water Management WI Webinar #4 Innovative Approaches and Tools for Improved Management of Floods and Droughts Facilitator: Gareth James Lloyd Senior Advisor UNEP-DHI Partnership Technical support: Maija Bertule and coordination Programme Advisor UNEP-DHI Partnership November 2nd,

2 Agenda 1. Building Drought Resilience to Reduce Poverty, by Frederik Pischke (GWP Senior Programme Officer WMO/GWP IDMP) 2. Drought risk management - tools for improved planning, by Oluf Zeilund Jessen (Senior Hydrologist, DHI) 3. Flood and Drought importance of data for insurance, by Ole Larsen (RD Area Manager, Sensors and Data, DHI) 4. Additional questions from the audience 5. Info on upcoming webinars Approaching the SDGs through Innovation in Water Management WI#4: Innovative Approaches and Tools for Improved Management of Floods and Droughts November 2nd, 2016

3 Frederik Pischke GWP Senior Programme Officer WMO/GWP IDMP 3

4 Overview 1) Droughts and Floods in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2) Integrated Drought Management 3) Applications: I. Drought Indicators and Indices II. 4) Conclusions Drought Management Policies

5 Droughts and Floods in the SDGs

6 Managing Water Extremes WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM) WMO/GWP Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) APFM established in 2001 IDMP established in 2013 APFM and IDMP provide a technical resource for water management extremes through: Expert Advice (Joint Technical Support Unit of GWP and WMO in Geneva) Guidelines and Tools Project Preparation support Capacity Development 25 partners in each programme

7 High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies (HMNDP) [Excerpt of HMNDP final declaration, emphasis added] Develop proactive drougth impact mitigation, preventive and planning measures, risk management, fostering of science, appropriate technology and innovation, public outreach and resource management as key elements of effective national drought policy Promote greater collaboration to enhance the quality of local/national/regional/global observation networks and delivery systems Improve public awareness of drought risk and preparedness for drought Consider, where possible [...]risk reduction, risk sharing and risk transfer tools in drought management plans Link drought management plans to local/national development policies

8 The cycle of disaster management Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska- Lincoln

9 3 Pillars of IDM MONITORING/ EARLY WARNING Drought status FEEDBACK DROUGHT CHARACTERIZATION STUDIES INTEGRATED DROUGHT MANAGEMENT VULNERABILITY & IMPACT ASSESSMENT Who/What is at RISK & Why? Prioritization/ Ranking MITIGATION & PREPAREDNESS Actions and measures to mitigate drought impacts and prepare to respond to drought emergencies more effectively

10 Partners AEMET Spanish Meteorological Agency Australian Bureau of Meteorology CONAGUA Mexico s National Water Commission FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UN CBD UN Convention on Biological Diversity George Mason University Global Environment and Natural Resources Institute ICARDA International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas ICID International Commission for Irrigation and Drainage IMTA Mexican Institute of Water Technology IWMI JRC SEI NDMC International Water Management Institute Joint Research Centre Stockholm Environment Institute U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center NIDIS U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System UNDP Cap-Net UNDP United Nations Development Progamme UNESCO United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization UNEP United Nations EnvironmentProgramme UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction University of Nebraska Daugherty Water for Food Institute University of Southern Queensland UNU Flores World Bank

11 BUNDLE EXPERTISE SPIRIT OF COLLABORATION PROVIDE ENTRY POINTS Integrated Drought Management Helpdesk o

12 Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices Handbook is a resource to cover most commonly used drought indicators/indices A starting point to describe and characterize the most common indicators and indices and their applications Does not recommend a best set of indicators and indices, given research requirements for appropriate application in location in question.

13 Selecting drought indicators and indices Timely detection of drought to trigger appropriate communication and coordination to mitigate or respond Sensitivity to climate, space and time to determine drought onset and termination Responsive to reflect drought impacts occurring on the ground Which indicators/indices and triggers to use for going into and coming out of drought Data for indices/indicator available and record consistent Ease of implementation? (Human, institutional and financial capacity available)

14 Policy Guidelines Adapting of 10-step process by Don Wilhite (National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln) Response to need articulated at High-level Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP) Template that can be adapted to national realities and needs Building on existing risk management capacities

15 Objectives of National Drought Management Policies To encourage vulnerable economic sectors & population groups to adopt selfreliant measures that promote risk management To promote sustainable use of agricultural & natural resource base To facilitate early recovery from drought through actions consistent with national drought policy objectives It can be a stand-alone policy or part of national policy for disaster risk reduction that is centered on the principles of risk management (UNISDR, 2009) and some pointers: It is one approach to assist nations with NDP process It can/should be modified/adapted according to local conditions Requires political will and coordinated approach; diverse stakeholders must be engaged in the process. It has been fundamental in guiding drought mitigation and preparedness plans in the USA, Brazil, Mexico, Morocco, among others.

16 Adapting to regional context Step-by-step guidance towards a Drought Management Plan

17 Activities Regional activities National activities WMO and GWP 17

18 Conclusions Drought as a stress test on how water resources are managed Bridge and integrate holistically rather than isolate risk Identify transformative development practices that can attract political and economic support An integrated approach to drought management, with strong technical basis but in which different disciplines and sectors join to find solutions Wealth of knowledge exist - close gaps in knowledge and in communicating/applying existing knowledge

19 For further information

20 Tools for improved drought risk management Volta Chao Phraya Lake Victoria Oluf Jessen DHI

21 Agenda Project overview Background Drought risk framework Tool examples

22 Objective DSS supporting technical activities within flood and drought planning Issues Objective Maps Models Data Policies Decision making Stakeholders

23 Global approach to local application Global approach Tools/guidelines Local application Technical tools supporting decision making at basin and local level Training Guidelines All tools are available for any transboundary river basin

24 Drought risk reduction framework (technical) Drought management Near real time data Drought dissemination and warning DSS Identify drought impacted areas Drought risk assessment Drought forecast

25 Drought identification Web based Flood & Drought portal enables near real time data, drought indices and identification of drought impacted areas - link Near real time satellite data Drought indices Seasonal forecast data Climate change information

26 Drought identification xxx

27 Drought forecast Meteorological drought is forecasted based on climate forecast and derived indices Drought indices Seasonal climate forecast web based Flood & Drought portal

28 Drought assessment and early warning Current drought status Threshold values for indices and duration Early warning Drought warnings for the coming season Climate change Assessment of long term impact Dissemination Reporting

29 Drought risk mitigation and planning Decision workflow utilizing: User defined interventions Near real time data Numerical models (crop and water resource) Indices Scenario evaluation based on MCA, CBA, trade-off analysis etc. Interventions Simulation model Indices Scenario evaluation Optimal scenario

30 Drought dissemination and awareness Automated identification of drought impacted areas Operational drought or status reports Technical training for relevant stakeholders Technical input to policy and management plans

31 QUESTIONS?

32 Flood and Drought importance of data for insurance Dr. Ole Larsen DHI

33 Institutional, political, normative, financial context Risk Management Components Risk identification Hazard mapping, Construction and building codes, Social perception, Priority settings Risk reduction Territorial and sectorial planning, building codes; Risk mitigation works, infrastructure retrofitting; Education, creation of a culture of prevention, etc. Financial protection Reserve mechanism, budget planning; Risk transfer, insurance; Budget appropriation, execution in emergency Preparedness Alert and early warning systems; Response planning, training, equipment, logistics, simulations, etc. Response system management Post-disaster reconstruction Institutional planning, strengthening Recovery, planning reconstruction policies, etc. Rehabilitation plans etc.

34 Percentage SME-loan performance volatility of a rural bank in the example Philippines 30% Example a of Rural Bank in Luzon P (PAR 31) 25% 20% 15% 10% 11,1% 16,9% 20,5% 24,8% 24,5% 19,6% Typhoon 23,2% 23,0% 21,5% 19,9% 24,0% 26,8% 27,4% 27,4% Typhoon Ketsana 5% 3,0% 0% June '07 Dec'07 Dec'08 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec'09 SME Total Months

35 Residential risks are mainly insured against the peril of fire. Considering the large dimension and outreach of Nat Cat events compulsory insurance schemes combined with insurance pools might be required to maximize the risk premium discounting diversification effect making these risks insurable for the future Mostly uninsured- Affordable Nat Cat insurance can DHI only be provided by the protection of aggregators ( e.g. CLIMBS) Public sector (Infrastructure, Municipality Buildings, Public Services) Industrial, Large Commercial risk Traditional Insurance Financing housing/ Insured Fire Non financed/ Low Income Housing Bottom of the Pyramid Beside of Property protection- countries consider to leverage their calamity fund as supporting external donating funds are reducing substantially less Particularly in Asia the market shows a trend regarding increase in Nat Cat Capacity due to the frequency of last years event. Reduction of capacity is expected which will increase the premium rates

36 Insurance product design Simplicity Accessibility Efficiency DHI

37 DHI

38 Map showing values for 20 year return periods for rain and wind Rainfall 39 Wind

39 Example of evaluation: The Ketsana event 40

40 Example: Typhoon Haiyan 10Years 15 Years 20 Years Typhoon Haiyan Thomas Mahl; Munich Re Singapore 11/2/2016

41 Smart phone application for flood monitoring DHI

42 Thank you for your attention! Dr. Ole Larsen DHI

43 Audience questions Approaching the SDGs through Innovation in Water Management WI#4: Innovative Approaches and Tools for Improved Management of Floods and Droughts November 2nd, DHI 2016

44 Upcoming webinars #1: Significance of the SDGs for water management in the next decades #2: Innovative approaches for capacity building to achieve the SDGs #3: Supporting SDG6 monitoring and reporting with Earth Observations #4: Innovative Approaches and Tools for Improved Management of Floods and Droughts #5: Opportunities within Green Infrastructure for climate change resilience Dates and recordings on Approaching the SDGs through Innovation in Water Management WI#4: Innovative Approaches and Tools for Improved Management of Floods and Droughts November 2nd, DHI 2016

45 Thank you for attending! Questions/comments to Maija Bertule Webinar recording and slides on YouTube (UNEP-DHI) and Short feedback survey in follow-up please take 5 minutes to fill in we value your opinion! Future webinars in the series Feedback and suggestions for future topics welcome! Approaching the SDGs through Innovation in Water Management WI#4: Innovative Approaches and Tools for Improved Management of Floods and Droughts November 2nd, DHI 2016