Climate Change, Wetlands and Livelihoods

Transcription

1 Climate Change, Wetlands and Livelihoods Dr. Marie-Caroline Badjeck WorldFish Center 1 st March 2011, Regional Workshop MCR/ICEM, Vientiane, Cambodia Climate Change Research at the WFC Four research themes: 1. Diagnosing vulnerability 2. Understanding current coping mechanism and adaptive responses 3. Contributing to mitigation 4. Building the capacity to respond and adapt at different scales CGIAR research programs (CRPs) CRP 1.3 => Harnessing the development potential of aquatic agricultural systems (AAS) for the poor and vulnerable CRP 7 => Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security FAO

2 Climate Change Impacts and Livelihoods: Concepts and Examples CC impacts on wetlands: multiple pathways Impacts on: GLOBAL Effects on: WARMING Species composition Production Production & yield CO2 Ecology Distribution shifts of Sea level rise / species and ecosystem Salinity intrusion boundaries Rainfall River flows Lake levels Thermal structure Extreme events Temperature Aquatic agricultural syst. operations Communities Livelihoods Wider society & Economy Adapted from Badjeck, et al 2010 Marine Policy Safety & efficiency Infrastructure Changes to seasonal timing Loss/damage to assets Risk to health & life Displacement & conflict Adaptation & mitigation costs Markets, water allocation

3 Livelihoods Livelihoods: set of activities and capital assets required for means of living (Chambers & Conway, 1992) SLA framework used in HH vulnerability assessment to climate change (i.e. Nelson 2010) Human Capital Social Capital HH and Indviduals Natural Capital Physical Capital Financial Capital Livelihoods indicators Han et al 2009 use SLA framework to measure vulnerability to CC and variability in Mozambique using a indicator-based approach Assets aggregated into the 3 elements of vulnerability (IPCC)

4 Wetlands and ecosystem services Climate regulation (GHGs sink) Flood control, storm protection etc. Nutrient cycling Soil formation etc. Food Fiber and fuel etc Recreational Aesthetic etc. Adapted Dugan et al 2010 and IUCN 2009 Wetlands, ecosystem services and livelihoods Climate Change IUCN/ODG Integrated Wetland Assessment Framework (2009)

5 Provisioning services: salinity intrusion and yields Provisioning service of food disrupted in the Mekong River Delta under a 50 cm scenario Inland catfish aquaculture and rice culture sensitive to changes in salinity in the MRD but opportunity for shrimp aquaculture? => SLA: Impact on natural capital, reduced or increased yields Increment of maximum salinity intrusion (ppt) during the dry season for 50-cm sea level rise scenario (in Kam et al 2010, adapted from SIWRP, 2009) Provisioning services: water level/flow and yields Close relationships between floodplain area, river flow and lake surface area and total fish production (Welcomme, 2001) In Malawi s, combination of a series of droughts and conversion of fringing wetlands for rice cultivation are putting severe pressures on water resources and fisheries (Allison et al 2007). The direct effect of CC on ecosystems and livelihoods enhanced Lake Chilwa. In Dugan et al 2010 adapted from Allison et al 2007 and Njaya 2002

6 Provisioning services: water level/flow and yields By 2030, climate change may raise the wet season flood level of the Tonle Sap lake by 2.3 meters (Eastham et al. 2008), extending feeding grounds and encouraging fish production Dams to be developed in the Mekong Basin will store water during the monsoon and thus will decrease wet season flood levels => The net result of these two processes is unknown In Baran et al 2009 Regulating services: storm protection Storm and severe weather events can destroy or severely-damage productive and non-productive physical assets such as landing and aquaculture sites, gears, roads etc. Storms can impact financial assets (use of credits and savings to smooth consumption) and human and social capital => loss of lives, displacement Can be exacerbated in areas with wetland loss Aquaculture area production affected due to typhoons, tropical storms and tropical depressions, in Vietnam (Kam et al, 2010)

7 Cultural services: tourism/aesthetic Where is the river? Tourists are complaining.. This morning. Mekong Beau Rivage Hotel Manager Adaptation mechanisms: Concepts and Examples

8 Adaptation mechanisms Adaptive strategies can either be a process, action or outcome in a system in order to better adjust, cope and manage changing conditions (Smit and Wandel, 2006) and ultimately enhance resilience. Adaptation involves both: building adaptive capacity => creating the information, supportive social structures and supportive governance (that are needed as a foundation for delivering adaptation actions implementing adaptation decisions, i.e. transforming that capacity into action to reduce vulnerability or take advantage of opportunities (Daw et al 2009, UKCIP) Adaptation mechanisms: Typology Can be categorized by: Intent: timing relative to climate change (proactive, reactive) Temporal (short-term, long-term) Spatial (local, regional) => most successful adaptation efforts are likely to be local as farmers respond to the localized manifestations of emerging climate risks (Heltberg et al., 2009) UKCIP/IPCC typology Autonomous adaptation Planned adaptation No/low regret Win-win (cost-effectiveness and multiple benefits) Flexible adaptive management

9 Farm/HH level autonomous/reactive Farmers raising dykes and bunds in aquaculture systems Costs for raising dykes under the CC estimated for incremental increases in bund height of catfish ponds to required heights from consideration of the expected increments in flooding depth revealed from GIS analysis in the MRD (Kam et al 2010) Farm/HH level autonomous/reactive Diversified and flexible livelihood systems Occupational mobility in response to climate variability is also a common practice in fishing communities. In Lake Chad fishing families diversify into farming while droughts affecting agriculture in Africa may encourage more fishing activity (Sarch and Allison 2000, Conway et al 2000) Migration: role of remittance in smoothing financial risk, diversification through geographical mobility in Vietnam (rural/urban) (UNEP 2009) Specialization trap? (Coulthard 2008, Badjeck et al 2010)

10 No/Low regret Building the livelihood platform to reduce vulnerability: Addressing fundamental problems of wetland management and the underlying factors that cause vulnerability Access to financial risk transfer mechanisms and social protection => Private or public insurance schemes could be put into place to avoid livelihood disruption arising from limited access to credit and loans to re-build the asset base in the aftermath of climatic disturbances (Badjeck et al 2010) Synergies with mitigation win-win /planned Coastal wetland restoration/conservation => costal protection and improved water quality Carbon offsets as payments for mangrove ecosystem services in Solomon Islands (WorldFish - AUSAID) Investigating aquaculture potential: organic shrimp farming?

11 Thank You! Climate change impacts Very low Low Moderate High No data Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on the fisheries sector. Out of 132 countries Vietnam (27) and Cambodia (30) are amongst the most vulnerable. Allison et al. (2009) Fish and Fisheries

12 Provisioning services: water level/flow and yields Lake Chad. In Dugan et al 2010 adapted from UNEP 2008 im to identify a range of adaptation options that can be implemented individually or collectively. These may be: No-regrets options that will deliver benefits that exceed their costs, whatever the extent of climate change; Low-regrets options that would yield large benefits for relatively low costs and seek to maximise the return on investment when certainty of the associated risks is low; Win-win options that enhance your adaptive capacity whilst also contributing to the achievement of other social, environmental or economic outcomes. Flexible or adaptive management options which will enable you to put in place incremental adaptation options.