Agricultural Labour Market Information: The Latest Numbers

Transcription

1 Agricultural Labour Market Information: The Latest Numbers Michael Burt and Jean-Charles Le Vallée The Conference Board of Canada Debra Hauer Canadian Agricultural Human Resource Council March 15, 2016

2 Presentation Outline Introduction Agriculture Faces a Unique Labour Challenge Causes of the Labour Gap in Agriculture The Labour Gap Has Real Consequences Mary Robinson

3 Project Introduction What: Forecast of agriculture labour supply and demand by province, commodity, and occupation Who: people directly involved Why: Increasing concerns about labour shortages within industry Where: Across Canada, across commodities Sheldon George: Cold Ocean Salmon

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5 Agriculture Faces A Unique Challenge Agriculture: 1 in 12 jobs unfilled x All other sectors: 1 in 36 jobs unfilled x

6 Agriculture s Current Labour Gap is 59,200 Workers Alberta Milk

7 Breakdown of Canada s Agricultural Workforce (agriculture workforce by category) 450, , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Domestic workforce, 331,100 Demand Supply Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

8 Breakdown of Canada s Agricultural Workforce (agriculture workforce by category) 450, , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Total workforce Domestic workforce, 331,100 Demand Foreign workers, 45,600 Supply Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

9 Foreign Workers Account for a Significant Share of the Total Agriculture Workforce workforce broken down by source, per cent 12% Foreign workers Domestic workforce 88%

10 Breakdown of Canada s Agricultural Workforce (agriculture workforce by category) 450, , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Total workforce Domestic workforce, 331,100 Demand Unfilled vacancies, 26,400 Foreign workers, 45,600 Supply Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

11 Breakdown of Canada s Agricultural Workforce (agriculture workforce by category) 450, ,000 Unfilled vacancies, 26, , ,000 Foreign workers, 45, , , , ,000 Total workforce Domestic workforce, 331,100 Domestic supply, 343,900 50,000 0 Demand Supply Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

12 Breakdown of Canada s Agricultural Workforce (agriculture workforce by category) 450, , , ,000 Unfilled vacancies, 26,400 Foreign workers, 45,600 Gap, 59, , , , ,000 Total workforce Domestic workforce, 331,100 Domestic supply, 343,900 50,000 0 Demand Supply Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

13 Labour Gap Has Doubled in Size 2004: Labour gap was 30,100 people, equal to 7.6% of demand 2014: Labour gap was 59,200 people, equal to 14.7% of demand

14 Causes of the Labour Gap in Agriculture Seasonality Rural location Wages

15 Agriculture Is More Seasonal Than Any Other Sector (labour demand in select months, 2014) January: 290,000 August: 403,000

16 No Growth in Rural Population Rural population flat for 25 years Rural population ageing faster than the urban population Bigger problem in aquaculture, apiculture, grain and oilseeds, and beef Less of a problem in British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario

17 Agriculture Wage Gap Has Narrowed (ratio of agriculture weekly wages to average for all industries) Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

18 The Labour Gap Has Real Consequences Lydia Schouten

19 Unfilled Vacancies Have Real Impacts Now and in the Future Unfilled vacancies cost the industry $1.5 billion in sales in 2014, 2.7% of the sector s total 17% of employers report delaying or cancelling expansion plans as a result of unfilled vacancies Characteristics of those with unfilled vacancies Growth oriented Larger than average Younger owners Mary Robinson

20 Ontario and Alberta Have the Largest Losses in Sales Due to Unfilled Vacancies (share of lost sales due to unfilled vacancies by province, per cent) Quebec 7% British Columbia 4% Atlantic Canada 2% Saskatchewan 15% Ontario 28% Manitoba 18% Total lost sales: $1.5 billion Alberta 26%

21 Manitoba Experiences the Largest Relative Impact (share of sales lost due to unfilled vacancies, per cent) Manitoba Ontario Alberta Newfoundland and Labrador Canada Nova Scotia British Columbia Saskatchewan Quebec New Brunswick Prince Edward Island

22 Grain and Oilseed Producers Experience the Largest Sales Losses (share of lost sales due to unfilled vacancies by commodity, per cent) Greenhouse, nursery, and floriculture 5% Dairy 4% Beef 9% All others 18% Total lost sales: $1.5 billion Swine 11% Grain and oilseed 37% Field fruit and vegetables 16%

23 Aquaculture Experiences the Largest Relative Impact (share of sales lost due to unfilled vacancies, per cent) Aquaculture Sheep, goats, and lambs Field fruit or vegetables Floriculture or ornamentals Swine Grain and oilseeds Total Greenhouse/nursery fruits or veg. Beef Tree fruit or vines Dairy Poultry and eggs

24 Summary Labour gap in agriculture, at 59,200 people, is larger than for any other sector and has been growing Combination of seasonality, wages, and the sector s rural location create a perfect storm of challenges Labour shortages currently cost the industry $1.5 billion per year in lost sales Labour shortages are already impacting investment decisions and the sector s growth potential