Secondary Equipment view from an IDM Gareth BIGNELL

Transcription

1 Secondary Equipment view from an IDM Gareth BIGNELL Purchasing Director STMicroelectronics

2 Agenda 2 What has changed for the Secondary Equipment & Applications (SEA) since activities started in 2012 How are these changes impacting ST Specific challenges related to 200/150mm equipment When to transition wafer size Predictions for the future

3 Predicting the future is easy.getting it right is the hard part 1981: Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems. Marty Cooper, inventor : "I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com. 2005: "There's just not that many videos I want to watch." Steve Chen, CTO and co-founder of YouTube 2007: There s no chance that the iphone is going to get any significant market share. Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO..and for the semiconductor industry we can add 2012:. The next scale-up from 300mm to 450mm wafer diameter processing is now a certainty and 450mm fabs will be in full production before the end of the decade. Decision Etudes Conseil and Future Horizons Commentators at this time -- development on 300mm will stop. 300mm fabs will be limited to making legacy products. As for smaller wafer sizes, no long term future, more fab closures predicted at 200mm and below And at this time of doom and gloom the Secondary Equipment &Applications group was started to help manage the decline

4 What actually happened? (1) Moore s law alive and kicking but still focused on 300mm New architectures, 3D devices and challenges in advanced patterning difficult enough without adding a new wafer size 450mm introduction delayed.. maybe for a long time 450 is probably dead for 5 to 10 years Dan Hutcheson CEO VLSI Research Even five to 10 years may be optimistic. "I don't see 450mm on the horizon," - Christian Dieseldorff, director of industry research and analysis at the SEMI trade association 4 New 300mm fabs continue to be built. Industry is very healthy. 200mm and even 150mm wafer demand remains strong

5 What actually happened? (2) there's plenty of life left in 200mm, too, as 300mm doesn't make economic sense for many types of devices. "Fabs running 200mm wafers will continue to be profitable for many more years for the fabrication of numerous types of ICs 200mm fabs are also still being used for building MEMS-based "non-ic" products such as accelerometers, pressure sensors and actuators, including acoustic-wave RF filtering devices and micro-mirror chips for digital projectors and displays, as well as power discrete semiconductors. IC Insights More than Moore became just as important as Moore s law No longer only, the well known race of 90, 65, 40, 28, 14, 10, 7, 5, 3.nm Explosion in demand for IOT, Automotive, artifical intelligence, autonomous driving Innovation and demand for MEMS, sensors, connectivity, power and portability 200mm and 150mm Rate of fab closures slowed down then fabs started adding capacity Today many new 200mm cleanrooms being built and existing cleanrooms being expanded The challenge is not what to do with 200mm equipment But rather, «how to get good tools quickly enough at a competitive price» How does the strategy of maintaining 150mm, 200mm and 300mm work for ST? 5

6 Application Strategic Focus 6 The leading provider of products and solutions for Smart Driving and the Internet of Things Smart Things Smart Home & City Smart Industry Smart Driving

7 Smart Things 7 Smart Things Making Every Thing Smarter A Smart Thing Understands the environment Manages data and transforms it into information Connects to the world Protects your data Is energy efficient

8 Smart Driving 8 Smart Driving Making driving Safer, Greener and more Connected Safer Greener More Connected Having cars drive better than we can & always watching for threats Making driving safer for car occupants and other road users by actively avoiding accidents Improving power and fuel efficiency, and helping minimize emissions and car maintenance Moving towards electric vehicles Enabling personalized car entertainment and connectivity Allowing vehicles to communicate with each other and the infrastructure (V2X)

9 Future Mobility Autonomous, Connected with Zero Emission 9 Zero casualties Active & Passive Safety ADAS ISO26262 compliancy Automated Drive Data Management Data Security Mobility for Everyone Electrification of the Car 48V Board Net CO2 Reduction Entertainment Fun Connectivity Intelligent mobility Automotive Mega Trends drives Innovation driven by Semiconductors

10 Mega trend sample 10

11 IGBT STMicroelectronics Contribution 11 to Future Mobility: Autonomous, Connected, with Zero Emission CAR2X Navigation Radar 24/77GHz Vision Processor Battery Monitoring Dedicated Automotive ICs MEMS & Specialized Imaging Sensors ToF HDR Motion Pressure HDR SiC SiC & GaN MDmesh IGBT Discrete & Power Transistors Digital ASICs MobilEye Diodes SiC Galvanic Isolator Protection Devices Temperature- Magnetic- Current Sense PMIC ViPer Analog, Industrial & Power Conversion ICs General Purpose & Secure MCUs EEPROM CAN FD Flex Ray Ethernet Bluetooth Wi-Fi NFC PLC

12 Focus on 200mm secondary equipment Well reported reduction in core tools availability Smaller number of consolidated IDMs and foundries - Transfer and re-use of tools within the same company Large number of fab closures post 2009 now slowed down to a trickle Lower number of tools coming on to the market Consensus of opinion among industry is that 200mm fabs will be active beyond 2030 Recent OEM quotes, including LAM, confirm this Overall business for all technologies is growing - IC Insights raises 2017 IC market forecast to +22% All of these factors mean that fabs are hanging on to their 200mm tools for longer Significant change is the re-emergence of new build 200mm tools Our mantra over last 10 years has been Re-use, Re-cycle, Re-purpose existing tools With low availability of core tools, this model is no longer fully sustainable Most of the OEMs are now actively manufacturing in different ways Rebuilding and refurbishing core tools the traditional approach Starting new 200mm equipment builds (highest cost) Hybrid tools with an intelligent mix of used and new - mainframes, chambers, components But if 200mm is the low cost option significant price increases will self limit the market 12

13 Focus on 200mm secondary equipment Clearly the cost of 200mm equipment is increasing Therefore needs to be a longer term perspective, tools need to be.. Flexible to cover different process types and technologies Good degree of future proofing, buy the tool for 0.18µ but then use for 0.12µ then 90nm Parts availability and potential obsolescence issues addressed From ST perspective Update and refurbish installed base Purchase equipment from second market, OEMS or even a complete fab Transfer internally from higher end fabs to trailing edge fabs Largest tool business is still clearly 300mm At same time need suppliers to put sufficient focus and resources on managing 200mm challenges Partnerships with key OEMs more important than ever Joint taskforces, common combined efforts to address problems As OEM parts become no longer available, OEMs should actively help us to find alternatives Provide drawings to allow repair as an example or actively work with the secondary market 13

14 When to transition from 200mm to 300mm 200mm - first choice for larger geometries 200mm tools generally cost less than 300mm 300mm tools better process/defectivity performance is overkill Cost per good chip improves with each node shrink for both 200mm and 300mm More chips per wafer = lower cost per chip True, up until a certain point. Around 90nm/65nm things start to change 300mm tools yield benefit Advanced 200mm tools become necessary Bridge tools add the capability of 300mm, but also costs of 300mm For the most advanced nodes the cost of 300mm also starts increasing patterning and yield challenges $ Equipment cost / good chip: 200mm 300mm Technology nodes -> 14

15 How do we manage this within ST? MEMS, smart power such as BCD, logic and embedded NVM manufacture on 200mm until this inflection point add 200mm capacity as needed SiC manufacture mainly on 150mm (substrate limited) R&D evaluating 200mm FDSOI, Advanced logic, envm and Image sensors - manufacture in 300mm and add capacity in Crolles Prepare for the transfer of very advanced BCD to 300mm building new 300mm fab in Agrate

16 Predicting the future mm manufacturing has a long and healthy future in front of us: Prediction (1) : When European governments ban on fossil fuelled cars becomes active in 2040 more than 50% of the devices in a compliant car in 2040, will be sourced from 200mm or below fabs. Prediction (2): The name of this working group «Secondary Equipment and Applications» gets replaced with a more noble title to reflect the changing reality since 2012 and strong contribution in overall semiconductor market and key enabler of more than Moore