The AI Car: Ramifications, Risks, & Opportunities
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1 The AI Car: Ramifications, Risks, & Opportunities Heather Ashton Research Manager IDC Manufacturing Insights Jeff Hojlo Program Director IDC Manufacturing Insights
2 Agenda Industry Trends, What s Driving the AI Car Ramifications and Risks Opportunities Essential Guidance IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 2
3 Industry Trends Driving The AI Car IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 3
4 Trends Affecting Automotive Today Ecosystem evolution: Established & Emerging players Complexity: product, supply chain, demand Iterative, lifecycle view of hardware, software, services Data & the information monetization opportunity Need to understand consumers Digital transformation (DX) IDC Visit us at IDC.com and 4follow us on
5 Today s Car is Incredibly Complex Advanced Driver Assistance Systems Infotainment Human Machine Interface Autonomous Electrification Telematics V2V and V2X IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 5
6 IDC 6
7 Not just Connected, Artificially Intelligent Cars IDC 7
8 Connected Cars & Auto Technology IDC 8
9 Cognitive/AI Software Platform A set of technologies that use NLP, machine learning, knowledge graphs and other technologies to answer questions, discover insights and provide recommendations. These systems hypothesize and formulate possible answers based on available evidence, can be trained through the ingestion of vast amounts of content, and automatically adapt and learn from their mistakes and failures. User / Data Interaction Knowledge Representation Learning Reasoning Natural Language Processing Q&A Processing Dialogue Based Interactions Natural Language Generation Structured Data Analysis Speech Recognition Automated Content Aggregation Knowledge extraction Knowledge base curation Knowledge Models & Ontologies NoSQL Databases Supervised Machine Learning Unsupervised Machine Learning Reinforcement Learning Semi-structured Learning Knowledge graph traversal Ontology based reasoning IDC 9
10 CXO Quotes on AI GPU deep learning has made the autonomous vehicle vision possible - Jens-Hsun Huang, CEO NVIDIA Consumer tech trends include voice as the next UI... AI infusion into lives & business" - Shawn DuBravac, CRO of the CTA (i.e. CES) AI s a rare case where we need to be proactive in regulation, instead of reactive. Because by the time we are reactive with AI regulation, it s too late. - Elon Musk, Founder/CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, Solar City IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 10
11 Ramifications & Risks IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 11
12 Connected Vehicles Includes Many Systems Infotainment Advanced Driver Assistance Systems Telematics Electrification Sensors Processors Software V2V & V2X Humanmachine Interfaces, Voice Autonomous Systems
13 Multiple Touchpoints, Petabytes of Data Hardware Services Software Connectivity Technology Owner Automotive Industry OEMs Tier 0 Suppliers Dealer / Service Network Raw materials suppliers Component Suppliers Insurance Entertainment Safety Diagnostics Digital Services Digital Transport Infrastructure Road and Highway Services Public Transportation Public works Government and Education Fleets Purchasing and Payments Digital Regulation National/Central Government State/Regional Government Local Government Non-Governmental Bodies IDC 13
14 Real Time Decision Support At the edge: the vehicle making informed decisions The importance of analytics The AI car to improve quality Taking a mission control approach? IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 14
15 The Organization Needs to be Harmonized IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 15
16 CXO Quotes the next step is value innovation, where we're trying to make improvements in design that raise quality and lower costs. - Katsuaki Watanabe, CEO of Toyota Our consumer wants us to have more information about them, and we need to give them something back. The lines between hardware, software, and services are blurring. The only way you can pull this off is when everyone is working together well... so focused on a great experience that they are not taking functional views of things. - Tim Cook, CEO of Apple IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 16
17 Opportunities: IoT, Digital Twins, & Simulation IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 17
18 Cognitive/Artificial Intelligence Systems WW Spend is Growing At Double Digit Rates, Reaching a 5 Year CAGR of 50% The WW Cognitive Artificial Intelligence spend will exceed $57B by Worldwide Cognitive/Artificial Intelligence Systems Spend 5 Year CAGR 50% $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $ Source: Worldwide Cognitive/Artificial Intelligence Spending Guide, 2016H2 IDC 18
19 IDC PREDICTION: By 2019, 25% of model year vehicles will report their own health, request service calls, identify design improvements, and validate warranty claims.
20 MBSE, Simulation, Analytics Critical Tools for DX Collaboration: Collaboration across extended internal and external teams Quality: Enterprise product and process quality is key to assure competitive advantage Complexity: Highly complex products, processes, value chains Change: Constantly changing demand, shrinking product development cycles and time to market demands Data: Massive amounts of data from IoT, internal/external systems and resources IDC 20
21 The Evolution of the Digital Twin Digital Ideation Digital Prototype/Mock-up Digital Twin Concept Design Detailed Design Operation & Service Three options for different points along the product & asset lifecycle IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 21
22 Critical for the AI Car: Simulation-Driven Innovation & MBSE Model-based Design Virtual Collaboration EDA Manufacturing Software Driving Scenarios
23 IDC Survey Spotlight How broadly is big data & business analytics (BDA) deployed within organizations? What are the top three ways that you are applying BDA initiatives within your organization? % of respondents that chose this initiative as one of the top three supported by BDA $136B BDA market in 2016 Source: IDC BDA Survey 2016 IDC# US (March 2017) Source: IDC Customer Insights and Analysis IT and Communications Survey, 2016, N=
24 Essential Guidance IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 24
25 Five Takeaways AI and Machine Learning are essential to autonomous vehicles. Choose how your ecosystem will approach AI. Don t underestimate the complexity of developing an AI system for vehicles. Adopt a harmonized approach to evolving your AI capabilities. Consider how a digital twin can be applied to support the development of AI capabilities in the vehicle platform. Simulation is a critical tool to ensure ongoing efficacy of software and mechatronics within the AI car. Incorporate road scenario simulation as part of your AI car design; ensure that your method will pass regulatory scrutiny. 25
26 Thank You! Heather Ashton Research Manager, Service Innovation Jeffrey Hojlo Program Director, Product Innovation Learn more about us at our websites or our community website:
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