U.S. Dairy Export Markets

Transcription

1 Today s Topics US. Markets and Prices 2015 U.S. Dairy Safety Net Policy U.S. Dairy Export Markets Cameron Thraen, OSU-AEDE Extension State Specialist Dairy Markets & Policy AEDE/OSU: 1

2 Ohio dairy numbers Average number of cows per dairy farm: 61 cows 2001 & 96 cows 2014 Average production per dairy farm: 1.0m # s 2001 & 1.9m # s 2014 Allocated Revenue per cow estimate*: ~$1, Wayne Holmes Knox Ashland Lic Farms (a/m) 233 (162) 292 (133) 45 (26) 58 (75) Milk Cows 32,500 17,000 3,500 6,000 County Rank Source: Ohio Dept. Agric. Statistics {2007: $1, / 2009: $70.00} Allocated revenue is the return to capital and management. Estimate Thraen 2

3 Ohio dairy numbers Ohio Milk Cows ~ 267,000 Total Milk Production 2014 ~ 5.4 billion pounds Gross Cash Revenue for Sale of Milk ~ $1.3 billion Source: Ohio Dept. Agric. Statistics 3

4 Milk Cows & Production: U.S. Notable Trends: U.S. total milk cow numbers edge up to million head. U.S. total milk production continues long run expansion reaching over 204 billion pounds in U.S. milk production per cow continues steady upward trend to 22,178 # in 2014,. Data source: 4

5 Milk Cows & Production: U.S. Notable Trends: Herds 1,000+ cows increase from 26% to 46.6% of all herds. Herds 1,000+ cows increase share from 29.4% to 50.6% of U.S. production Herds under 500 cows 41.5% and have a production share of 37%. Data source: 5

6 Regional Comparisons. Accounting for milk not reported within the FMMO system, the U.S. is running a net surplus of 328 million pounds per month. Use per month 6

7 Regional Comparisons. 7

8 Commercial Use CHEESE +13% from 2000 Italian cheeses 15# pc Cheddar 9# pc MILK BEVERAGES -10% from 2000 Fluid Milk & Cream 175# pc Source : FMMO 32 Central Marketing Service Bulletin 10/14. OTHER DAIRY Ice Cream 18# pc Yogurt 15# pc 8

9 Demand Trends Consumer interest in dairy products lies with Cheese, primarily Cheddar and Italian types and with Yogurt. Beverage milk products continue a long downward slide despite promotion efforts. Perhaps a new strategy is in order? Source : FMMO 32 Central Marketing Service Bulletin 10/14. 9

10 Oil Economics: $1.5t transfer Each 10 cent decline in gas price adds $11b to U.S. economy Gas U.S. average gas prices have fallen from $3.63 to $2.74 $500 to U.S. Households +0.4 faster U.S. GDP growth +350k new jobs Consumer Down 40% Shale U.S. shale oil production has 3.5mb a day since 2008 Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria under stress. Iran needs $138 oil to fund it s social programs OPEC is not a factor at the moment. World capacity is 95mbd and consumption is at 92mbd. 10

11 U.S. Dairy Trade Whey NDM/SMP Cheese WMP Lactose U.S. Dairy Export Council 11

12 U.S. Dairy Trade MT and $ Exports growth slows in 2014 on strong U.S butterfat and lactose prices. U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook

13 U.S. Dairy Export Trade Exports climb from less than 4% in 1996 to over 15% of U.S. milk production in Imports shrink to less than 3%. Source: U.S. Dairy Export Council USDEC 13

14 U.S. Dairy Trade 2014 U.S. Exports fall to lowest level in 19 months increased supplies in Europe and Oceana Russia imposes ban on imports from Europe China slows imports in 2014 to adjust inventories. WMP+SMP peaked in January 2014 at 150k mt and are now at 40k mt. U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook

15 Importance of U.S. Dairy Trade Dairy Exports All Products % of U.S. Production Used in Export Days of U.S. Production Exported Export Equivalent number of cows (000) U.S. All Milk Price ($ cwt) ,480 ~24.00 U.S. milk production increased 34 billion pounds from U.S. exports increased by 25.7 billion pounds absorbing 75% of the growth in U.S. milk production. Data source: 15

16 Global Dairy Trade Global Price Index 10 years history "The kiwi is under pressure from two fronts," ANZ Bank New Zealand senior FX strategist Sam Tuck said. "The US dollar bounced (and) the other thing is the GlobalDairyTrade auction. It was another weak auction which pretty much locks in the fact that the season is going to be a very hard one for NZ dairy farmers. FW+ BusinessDesk, 12/2/

17 Global Dairy Trade Trade Product Price Performance 17

18 Danger on the Export Horizon Strong U.S. dollar and high U.S. dairy product prices could bring storms to the U.S. Export market in 2015! 18

19 Danger on the Export Horizon 19

20 Danger on the Export Horizon 20

21 U.S. Dairy Trade 2014 U.S. Exports Value continues to increase $6.1 billion dollars in Up 11% over Most products show year to date increases in volume exported. U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook

22 U.S. a Trusted Supplier Positive Trends that will continue: 22

23 C3 and C Projection Lower butterfat and protein prices on the way in 2015 CME forecast for C3 and C4 Milk in 2015 falls from 2014 highs. 23

24 U.S. All Milk Price 2015 U.S. All Milk Price expected to soften in 2015 Forecast for U.S. All Milk Price in 2015 falls from 2014 highs. 24

25 U.S. All Milk Price 2015 Lower Feed Input costs in 2015 coupled with a reduction in U.S. All Milk Price will keep IOFC margin strong for

26 Risk Management for U.S. Dairy Research & Extension education efforts supported by the following: The following USDA funding grant is acknowledged: USDA-AMS Cooperative Agreement: Risk Management in the U.S. Dairy Industry USDA-NIFA Award No

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28 IOFC 2015 Projection 2015 planning IOFC margin Margin forecast remains strong in 2015 and above the long term U.S. average of $

29 Closing Thoughts for 2015 Lagged U.S. milk production response to record equity buildup in 2014 Renewed concerns of general economic weakness outside the U.S. End of dairy quota in Europe Long term impact from Russia s dairy import ban How will these events translate into a lower U.S. All Milk price? Will U.S. grain and soybean meal prices remain low in 2015? 29

30 Dairy Markets Sliding Down FMMO Europe Oceania Futures < 7.50 < 7.00 < 6.00 Butter NFM Cheese Whey Class Class All Milk Feed Index MPP# #The data in this table are estimates only and do not represent any actual data. The calculations are the product of Cameron Thraen and are intended for discussion only. 30

31 Today s Topics US. Markets and Prices 2015 U.S. Dairy Safety Net Policy U.S. Dairy Export Markets Cameron Thraen, OSU-AEDE Extension State Specialist Dairy Markets & Policy AEDE/OSU: 31