Drought Preparedness and Drought Mitigation for Sustainable Agriculture Production

Transcription

1 Drought Preparedness and Drought Mitigation for Sustainable Agriculture Production High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP) Geneva, Switzerland, February, 2013 CGIAR Mahmoud El Solh Director General International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)

2 Outline 1. The changing world, climate change and the fragile ecosystem of dry areas; 2. Drought, Desertification and Poverty; 3. Drought Preparedness Strategies 4. Applications of science & technology for drought preparedness to enhance food security and improve livelihoods; 6. Conclusions

3 The Changing World, Climate Change and the Fragile Agro-ecosystems of Dry Areas

4 The Changing World

5 The Dry Areas Dry areas cover 41% of the earth s surface, and are home to over 2.0 billion people and the majority of the world s poor. About 16% of the population lives in chronic poverty, particularly in marginal rainfed areas.

6 The Dry Areas: Fragile Eco-systems! Physical water scarcity! Rapid natural resource degradation and desertification! Groundwater depletion! Drought! Climate change will make it drier m Decrease of the Souss aquifer level in Morocco

7 Implications of Climate Change in Dry Areas - Changes in precipitation - Drought is now a common phenomena; - Extreme temperatures; - Changes in climatic zones; - Shorter growing season; - Emerging diseases and insect pests; - Raising sea water level and sea water intrusion

8 Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099 Rela%ve' change' of' mean' annual' precipita%on' 1980/1999' to' 2080/2099,' scenario' A1b,' average' of' 21' GCMs' (compiled'by'gis'unit'icarda,'based'on'par%al'maps'in'christensen'et'al.,'2007)

9 Absolute change of mean annual temperature 1980/1999 to 2080/2099 Absolute change of mean annual temperature 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs (compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)

10 Climate(change(affects(not(only(food(produc6on(...((... it affects all four dimensions of food security' Availability " Loss(in(food(produc6on( " Direct(natural(resource(degrada6on(&( " More(abio6c(and(bio6c(Stresses( Access " Infrastructure(damage,(asset(losses(( " Loss(of(income(and(employment(opportuni6es(( Stability " Increased(livelihood(risks,(pressure(on(food(prices( " Higher(dependency(on(food(imports(and(food(aid( " Increased((variability(in(abio6c(and((bio6c((stresses( Utilization " Human(health(risks,(nutri6on( Source: FAO Policy Learning Programme Module 2: Specific Policy Issues Climate Change Session 2.1

11 Other(Challenges(to(Food(Security( (in(dry(areas:(bio6c(stresses( Fungi'Diseases' Salinity Insect Pests Weeds/Parasi%c'Weeds''

12 Further Challenges to Coping with Drought and Enhancing Food Security in Dry Areas " Inadequate agricultural policies for sustainable agricultural development " Insufficient investment in agricultural research and development

13 Drought, Desertification and Poverty

14 Drought Drought = deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time Drought is a climatic event; we cannot prevent drought, but actions can be taken to:! better prepare to cope with drought,! Develop more resilient ecosystems and better ability to recover from drought, and! mitigate the impacts of droughts

15 Desertification Desertification : land degradation in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations particularly more frequent drought and human activities (UNCCD) Desertification is a process, which can be managed, modified and prevented Processes include:! degradation and loss of vegetation! soil erosion by water and wind! salinization and alkalization of soil! soil compaction and crust formation! contamination of soil and groundwater! loss of soil fertility

16 Dry Areas: highly vulnerable to drought, desertification and land degradation

17 Desertification and land degradation: not simply a force of nature! Complex of natural and human-induced causes! Exacerbated by drought! Exacerbated by poverty! Land users are both the drivers and the victims of desertification! Loss of livelihoods: increasing pressure on fragile resources

18 What causes desertification & land degradation? CGIAR Variations in climate and natural disasters! Climate change! Drought! Soil erosion (wind & water)! Epidemics Human activities! Overgrazing! Deforestation! Non-sustainable intensification of agricultural production! Salinization! Urbanization! Pollution! Conflict

19 CGIAR The Vicious Cycle

20 The integrated approach for breaking the vicious cycle & enhancing sustainable agricultural development in dry areas Natural resource management and inputs Crop & livestock genetic improvement Integration at farm and field levels Socio-economic & policy, and institutional support

21 ICARDA s Research Programs Biodiversity and Integrated Gene Management Integrated Water and Land Management Diversification and Sustainable Intensification of Production Systems Social, Economic and Policy Research

22 Preparedness Strategies to Drought

23 Preparedness Strategies to Drought! Geographical shifts of agricultural systems;! Climate-proofing rainfall-based systems: - more tolerant crops and crop varieties to drought and heat; - more resilient production systems;! Making irrigated systems more efficient;! Expanding the role of intermediate rainfed-irrigated systems

24 Preparedness Strategies to Drought: 1. Geographical shifts of agricultural systems! With the expected increase of aridity in the certain zones (e.g. Mediterranean Region), shifts are likely in the geographical location of the agricultural systems: those that currently occur within a particular aridity class will tend to occupy the agroecological niche of those systems currently in a relatively more humid zone, and will themselves be substituted by systems currently in a more arid climate.

25 Preparedness Strategies to Drought: 2. Climate-proofing rainfall-based systems! The rainfall-based systems are the ones most likely to come under pressure by climate change! In order to retain their productivity, they will need to draw inspiration from the established principles for successful dryland crop management: Retain the soil moisture profile by reducing evaporation; Use drought tolerance crops and varieties that fit the rainfall pattern (drought evasion). Conservation Agriculture

26 Preparedness Strategies to Drought: 3. Making irrigated systems more efficient! Irrigated systems in many parts of the world including the Mediterranean Zone are already under considerable pressure to become more efficient considering the low WUE.! Irrigation will need to produce more with less water.! Technical possibilities for making irrigation systems more efficient: Reducing distribution losses through the modernization of existing schemes; Conversion of gravity or surface irrigation schemes to pressured irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler systems; Improve the efficiency of surface irrigation systems Shifting emphasis from more water-demanding systems based on relatively low-water demanding crops e.g. sugar beet vs. sugar cane Changing crop calendars to avoid extreme heat; Increasing use of marginal water both treated sewage effluent and brackish as an important source of irrigation water.

27 Preparedness Strategies to Drought: 4. Expanding the role of intermediate rainfed-irrigated systems Expanding the conjunctive or alternating use of rainfall and irrigation water: Water harvesting, both micro- and macrocatchments; Supplemental irrigation; Deficit irrigation.

28 Applications of Science and Technology for Drought Preparedness through Dryland Crops & Fruit Trees, Germplasm Conservation and Utilization for Developing Drought Tolerant Crops CGIAR

29 Choice of Dryland Crops ICARDA Global Mandate for dryland field Crops Barley Lentil Kabuli Chickpea Grass pea

30 Choice of Dryland Fruit Trees Promotion of indigenous dryland fruit trees are good example for drought preparedness like olives, figs, dates palm, pomegranate, pistachio, almonds, and even vegetables with drip irrigation or hydroponics in protected agriculture.

31 Conservation & Utilization of Drought Tolerant Germplasm: ICARDA s GeneBank Holdings (up 1 st March, 2013) Taxon Number'of'accessions Wheat 37,816 Barley 28,999 Wild'Cereals 8242 Faba'bean 12,585 Len%l' 10,889 Chickpea 14,544 Wild'Lens'and'Cicer 929 Forage'legumes 31,719 Forage'and'range' species 7611 Total 153,334

32 ICARDA's holdings Geographic coverage of the conserved plant genetic resources at ICARDA s GeneBank

33 Conventional Plant Breeding

34 Biotechnology Tools! Genomics! Marker Assisted Selection! Double Haploids! Embryo Rescue! Tissue Culture! DNA Fingerprinting! Genetic Engineering

35 New genetic diversity for desirable traits in wheat identified through wide crosses with wild relatives T. boeoticum T. urartu T. dicoccoides probably different from Yr15 Ae. speltoides yellow rust resistance leaf rust resistance earliness high productive tillering spike productivity plant productivity plant height drought tolerance Sunn pest resistance Russian wheat aphid resistance Septoria tritici resistance

36 Crop Improvement: varieties released using ICARDA germplasm 1977 to 2012 Crop Developing Countries Last 2 years Industrialized Countries All Countries Barley Durum Wheat Bread Wheat Chickpea Faba Bean Lentil Forages Peas Sub-Total Total Estimated Net Benefit = about US $850 m / year

37 Desirable Traits of Varieties Released! High yield potential! Tolerance to abiotic stresses: - Drought - Heat - Cold - Salinity! Resistance/tolerance to biotic stresses - Diseases - Insect pests - Parasitic weeds

38 Synthetic Wheat developed with Wild Relatives: tolerance to excessive drought Yield of synthetic derivatives compared to parents under drought stress. (Tel Hadya, mm) Parent Variety Yield t/ ha % recurrent parent Cham 6*2/SW Cham 6*2/SW Cham Attila

39 Yield of synthetic wheat varieties derived from wild relatives under moisture extremes 8 7 Average Maximum 6 Yield (tons/ha) Low (280mm) Moisture stress High (480mm)

40 Yields (kg/ha) of promising durum wheat genotypes under rainfed (RF) supplemental irrigation (SI) Mean (kg/ha) Max(kg/ha) 11 t/ha /t/ha t/ha Rf (321 m m ) Rf+SI ( m m ) Fvrbl+SI ( m m ) RF (321 mm) RF+SI ( mm) RF+SI ( mm) Key to Acronyms: RF = Rainfed; SI = Supplemental Irrigation

41 The Case of Wheat in Syria 9 8 Area'Needed' Precipita%on' Actual'Area' Linear'(Area'Trend)'.( Actual'Produc%on' Linear'(Produc%on'Trend)' Wheat area (million ha) Precipitation (mm) / Production (million tons)

42 Heat-tolerant Wheat in Sudan

43 Winter vs. spring chickpea in West Asia & North Africa Mature winter Spring sown crop

44 Drought tolerant chickpea variety survived 2007 drought in Turkey Gokce is used on about 80% of the chickpea production areas (over 550,000 ha). With a yield advantage of 300 kg/ha over other varieties, and world prices over USD 1000/t, this represents an additional USD 165 million for Turkish farmers, in 2007 alone. The Kabuli chickpea, Gokce, developed by Turkish national scientists and ICARDA scientists, has withstood severe drought in Turkey and produced when most other crops failed in 2007.

45 Food Legumes in Ethiopia Field visits involving policy makers Increase in production 2000/ /10: (Lentils: 3 times (Faba Bean: 40% (Chickpea: 60% Alemaya(len6l(variety(widely(adopted( in(ethiopia(( Increased(produc6on(provides( employment(in(food(processing(in( rural(areas(

46 Barley for excessive drought tolerance Zahra Local Landrace Zahra versus local landrace (139 mm rainfall)

47 Application of Science and Technology for Drought Preparedness through Sustainable Water Management CGIAR

48 Water Research in Dry Areas: Scales and drivers to conserve and optimize water productivity! At the basin level: Competition among uses (Environ., Agric., Domestic.) Conflicts between countries Equity issues! At the national level: Food security Reduce imports Socio-politics! At the farm level: Maximizing economic return Nutrition in subsistence farming! At the field level: Maximizing WUE, productivity & income

49 Benchmark Sites for Integrated Water Management to Cope with Drought and Water Scarcity in Dry Areas

50 Implementation in three agro-ecologies Rainfed Areas Irrigated Areas Marginal Lands

51 Rainfed Agro-Ecosystems! Supplemental Irrigation! Early sowing! Deficit irrigation! Optimization of supplemental irrigation Grain yield (t/ha) Water productivity (Kg/m3) rainfed Sowing SI Deficit SI Fu

52 Irrigated Agro-Ecosystem! Increasing water productivity/income! Management of saline water and soils! Policies and institutions! Modifying cropping patterns

53 Marginal Land Agro-Ecosystem! Water harvesting technologies! Micro-catchments & mechanized contour laser planting! Effective water harvesting! Grazing management 20! 40-50% increase in rainwater productivity 0 % of rainfall Transpiration Evaporati No intervention Micro WH Macro

54 Watershed Management The tabia and jessour system of Tunisia Three layers of production: for example dates, figs and faba bean

55 Tradeoffs between water and land productivity - Deficit Irrigation Water productivity can be increased substantially Water, not land, is the limiting resource 20 Water productivty (kg/m3 x10) y = x x R 2 = Land productivtiy (t/ha)

56 Potential of Water Use Efficiency: Supplemental Irrigation (SI), Rainfed and Full Irrigation(FI) WUE: Water Use Efficiency

57 Application of Science and Technology for Drought Preparedness through Conservation Agriculture CGIAR

58 Conservation Agriculture Major Practice Worldwide minimum soil disturbance / zero tillage stubble retention many rotations (legumes, oilseeds) Benefits savings in time, fuel, machinery wear better soil structure better soil moisture conservation improved traffic ability timely sowing higher yield potential less soil erosion

59 Local Fabrication of Zero-Tillage Seeders: in Iraq and Syria Amazon imported Syria-El Bab - local Qabbasin - local Iraq-Mosul Co Syria-Kamishly - local Local seeders (Iraq & Syria) - price $ performance excellent

60 LAND USE: Conservation agriculture and crop rotations

61 Conservation Agriculture: the raised-bed system Reduced seed rate by 50% Increased wheat yields 22% in Azerbaijan and 48% in Kazakhstan Net profit averaged 30% higher than conventional system In Egypt, wheat productivity increased by 20% with 25% water saving Raised bed planter from India

62 Syria: Long-term ZT vs CT Trials at ICARDA Example: lentil on wheat stubble (very dry season) For(straw(and(grain(yield( ZT((>(CT( Early(>(late(plan6ng( For(grain(yield:( Farmer(prac6ce:(CT,(late(sowing:(670(kg/ha( Improved(prac6ce:((ZT,(early(sowing:(1285(kg/ha(

63 Expansion of Conservation Agriculture in West Asia (WA) Adoption of Conservation Agriculture in WA: " CA is spreading rapidly in WA. " Adoption has grown from near-zero to more than 27,000 ha in four years Driving Forces for Adoption " Soil-moisture conservation, thus improving WUE & reducing the likelihood of crop failure " Cost savings (fuel, labor, seeds) " Better understanding of the impact pathway " Effectively linking R to D (PP partnership) " Active participation of farmers " Enabling policy environment AusAID/ACIAR supported project on conservation agriculture in Iraq and Syria

64 Application of Science and Technology for Drought Preparedness through Resilient Production Systems in Marginal Lands CGIAR

65 Ecosystem Resilience: Integrated crop/rangeland/livestock systems Successful Technologies On-farm Feed Production Feed from agro-industrial by-products Barley Production Livestock management Planting cactus & fodder shrubs in rangelands Improved Natural Pastures & Rangeland Management

66 Indigenous breeds of small ruminants are highly adaptable to climate changes and drought

67 Small Ruminant Breed Characterization The focus of the books Production systems Characteristics of 48 breeds Threats to small ruminant diversity CWANA series: West Asia North Africa Central Asia and the Caucasus

68 Successful Technologies in Farmers Fields! Feed Blocks Technology! Improved rams! Early weaning! improved barley cultivars! Rotations of barley with forage legumes

69 Rangeland management and rehabilitation

70 Community Approach Policy & Property right studies Agro - Ecological Characterization Technologies Community Modeling Scenarii Scenarios Validation with community representatives Presentation to decision makers Private sector Other communities

71 Policies for Drought Preparedness and Drought Mitigation

72 Three types of drought policies to help farmers cope with drought! Policies for Drought Preparedness! Polices for Drought Mitigation! Policies for Economic Inclusion

73 Policies Drought Preparedness! Map vulnerable regions for drought occurrence! Drought risk and vulnerability assessment! Develop early warning systems! Seasonal climate predictions and linking to modern communication systems! Proactive and timely mitigation measures to increase adaptation and resiliency to drought including safety nets.

74 Policies for Drought Preparedness (cont d)! Develop insurance programs for farmers to compensate for crop failure & income losses! Promote better water management practices: water harvesting ground water management Deficit irrigation Supplemental irrigation! Provide water points for livestock, particularly in remote areas.

75 Polices for Drought Mitigation! Social safety nets: provide direct assistance programs to most affected areas and most vulnerable households! Special programs for compensation for low-income and resource households! Develop programs that help farmers and herders to reconstitute their assets-such as micro-finance and provide subsidizes to feed for pastoralists e.g. barley for feed! Insurance plans for farmers can also help them to reconstitute their assets! Implement School children feeding programs

76 Economic Inclusion! Focus on marginalized groups, landless farmers and women headed households! Support may include literacy, skill development and training, apprenticeships, wage subsidies, workfare! Programs for youth are particularly important

77 Conclusions

78 Conclusions! With climate change, droughts will become more intense, frequent and prolonged.! Droughts will exacerbate desertification and poverty! There are several preparedness strategies and mitigation measures for coping with drought and combating desertification to contribute to food security and improve livelihoods! Policies, strategies and initiatives to combat both drought need to be integrated at national, regional and global levels

79 Conclusion: Importance of the integrated approach in enhancing sustainable agricultural development in changing climate Natural resource management and inputs Crop & livestock genetic improvement Integration at farm and field levels Socio-economic & policy, and institutional support

80 THANK'YOU'