Thai Rice Production and Trade : Current and Future Outlook

Transcription

1 Thai Rice Production and Trade : Current and Future Outlook By Dr. Apichart Pongsrihadulchai Presented at OECD-ASEAN Regional Conference on Agricultural Policies to Promote Food Security and Agro-Forestry Productivity Seoul, Republic of Korea 12 October 2015

2 Relative Importance of Thai Rice To the World Ranked 6 th in terms of rice production, representing only 4% of world production and ranked 3 rd in ASEAN after Indonesia and Vietnam, representing about 15% of ASEAN production Ranked 1 st in terms of rice export value and quantity, for more than 30 years ( ,except ) Market share average about 22% (used to be 30-40%) Thai rice is one of the best quality rice in the world (Hommali Rice) 2

3 World Rice Production Unit : Mill.Tons (Milled Rice) Country year 2010/11 year 2011/12 year 2012/13 year 2013/14 Forecast year 2014/15 * % 13/14-14/15 China India Indonesia Bangladesh Vietnam Thailand Myanmar Philippine others Total Ref : *USDA December 2014 forecast year 2013/ /15

4 World Rice Production 2014/2015 Myanmar 3% Philippine 3% Others 18% China 30% Thailand 4% Vietnam 6% Bangladesh 7% Indonesia 8% India 21% Total World Production = Million Tons (Milled Rice)

5 Year World Rice Trade VS Thailand Export World Production Export Percentage of World Production Unit : Mill.Tons (Milled Rice) Export Thailand Market Share 2010/ / / / / Average Ref : USDA December 2014 forecast year 2013/ /15

6 World Rice Export Unit : Mill.Tons (Milled Rice) Country year 2010/11 year 2011/12 year 2012/13 year 2013/14 Forecast year 2014/15* % 13/14-14/15 Thailand India Vietnam Pakistan USA others Total Ref : *USDA December 2014 forecast year 2013/ /15

7 World Rice Export 2014/2015 Others 20% Thailand 26% USA 8% Pakistan 9% Vietnam 16% India 21% Total World Export = Million Tons (Milled Rice)

8 World Rice Import Unit : Mill.Tons (Milled Rice) Country year 2010/11 Year 2011/12 year 2012/13 year 2013/14 Forecast year 2014/15* % 13/14-14/15 China Nigeria Philippine Iran Iraq Indonesia others Total Ref : *USDA December 2014 forecast year 2013/ /15

9 World Rice Import 2014/2015 Chaina 10% Negeria 8% Philippine 4% Iran 4% Others 67% Iraq 4 % Indonesia 3% Total World Import = Million Tons (Milled Rice)

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11 Planted Area, Production, Yield and Export of Thai Rice ( ) Item Avg. Growth Rate Planted Area Wet season Dry season % Dry season Production Wet season Dry season % Dry season Yield (kg./rai.) Wet season Dry season Export (Mill.ton Milled Rice)

12 Rice Planted Area in Thailand (Mill.rai) Dry season Wet season Source : Office of Agricultural Economic 6.25 rai = 1 hr

13 Rice Production in Thailand (Mill.ton Paddy) Dry season Wet season Source : Office of Agricultural Economic

14 Rice Yield of Thailand (kg./rai.) Wet season 300 Dry season Source : Office of Agricultural Economic

15 Mill.Baht 1000 Tons Quantity and Value of Thai Rice Export ( ) 250,000 12, ,000 10, ,000 8,000 6, ,000 4,000 50,000 Value Quanity 2, Source : Office of Agricultural Economic

16 Thailand Rice Export Destinations, No Country percent of 2014 Unit : Tons 2015 (Jan-Aug) 1 Nigeria 1,070,927 1,399,806 1,549,964 1,270, ,818 1,239, ,460 2 Benin 610, , , , ,041 1,112, ,923 3 China 328, , , , , , ,411 4 Ivory Coast 525, , , , , , ,627 5 South Africa 751, , , , , , ,083 6 Cameroon 186, , , , , , ,427 7 U.S.A. 440, , , , , , ,887 8 Malaysia 162, , ,832 69, , , ,253 9 Mozambique 175,446 98, , , , , , PHILIPPINES 156, , ,403 3,376 65, , , Others 4,248,562 4,657,922 6,257,263 3,323,329 3,541,680 4,455, ,370,151 Total (Tons) 8,592,830 9,047,386 10,666,120 6,954,511 6,954,511 10,969, ,889,790 Value (mill. Baht) 172, , , , , ,851 94,894

17 Thailand Rice Export by Destinations ,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , ,000 China Nigeria PHILIPPINES Benin South Africa Ivory Coast U.S.A. Cameroon Mozambique Malaysia 200,

18 Rice Self-sufficiency Ratio of Thailand Year Production Domestic Utilization Unite : Mill.tons (Milled Rice) Self-sufficiency Ratio (%) average

19 Thailand Irrigated Area By Region 2014 Unit: mill/rai Region Agriculture Land Holding Irrigated Area % North North - east Central South Total

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21 Percentage of Useable Water in 4 Major Dams at 1 May of Each Year and Planted area of Major Rice (Wet Season) In Chaophraya Basin 25 % mill. rai % useable water average 30 yrs % useable water rice planted area Year 0 Remark : had rice pledging scheme 4 Major Dam = Sirikit Dam, Bhumibol Dam, Khwaenoi Dam, Pasakcholasit Dam

22 Percentage of Useable Water in 4 Major Dams at 1 November of Each Year and Planted area of Second Rice (Dry Season) In Chaophraya Basin Remark : had rice pledging scheme 4 Major Dam = Sirikit Dam, Bhumibol Dam, Khwaenoi Dam, Pasakcholasit Dam 80 % mill. rai % useable water average 30 yrs % useable water rice planted area

23 Short Term Outlook Unit : Area = Mill.rai, Production = Mill.tons (Paddy) 6.25 rai = 1 hectare Item Change ( ) Quantity % Planted Area Wet season Dry season Production Wet season Dry season Export Remark 1 Forecast 2 Target of Rice Strategy (Restructuring Program) Water shortage No rice pledging scheme Low farmgate prices Reasons

24 Medium Term Outlook Unit : Area = Mill.rai, Production = Mill.tons (Paddy) 6.25 rai = 1 hectare Item Change ( ) Quantity % Planted Area Wet season Dry season Production Wet season Dry season Export Remark 1 Forecast 2 Target of Rice Strategy (Restructuring Program) Reasons Results of restructuring program (Area of wet season decrease) Water supply will be normal, area of second rice back to normal level Yield increase due to the new extension programs of the government Export increase due to the increase in demand of quality rice

25 Long Term Outlook (After 2019) Planted area will decrease due to land use conversion Yield will increase due to government policy Production will be stable and match with demand Will increase due to : Reduction in Domestic Utilization Increase in world demand FAO forecast that Thailand will export mill.tons in 2024 No problem in availability dimension Accessibility dimension is still exist but may be less than 5% undernourished

26 Recognition of Thai Rice 1907 The First National Rice Contest In Thailand At the World s Grain Contest held in Regina, Canada in 1933,Thai rice was first known to the world Pinkaew and other local varieties was the first, second, third and eight other prizes. 26

27 The Royal Message (1993) We have to grow rice because in the next 20 years our population may reach 80 million people. If we continue to reduce rice growing we may have to buy rice from aboard. Thai people will not allow this to happen. We must have rice even though growing rice in Thailand may be not competitive.we must grow it. 27

28 Thank you for your kind attention Sawasdee Krab 28