Elements for building national foresight scenarios
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- Cuthbert Benson
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1 Elements for building national foresight scenarios
2 A couple of literature references Lewis (1954): dual model Krugman (1994), Young(1995), others: - Asian miracle due more to capital accumulation than to TFP growth Timmer (1988, 2009): A world without Agriculture Dorin et al. (2013): A world without Farmer: The Lewis Path Revisited
3 Trajectories of Agriculture Transformation (1) Spread of Green Revolution: role of policies, technologies and institutions Average annual production (mil. tons) Average annual simple growth in food production (%) Average annual per capita food production (kg) (0.12) 4.62 (0.65) 4.22 (1.29) 244 (-2.47) 257 (5.99) 415 (11.48) Table: Trends in Production of Foodgrains ( ) Source: Estimated from FaoStat
4 Trajectories of Agriculture Transformation (2) Food Self-Sufficiency and Commercialization of Agriculture Table: Trends in Production of Foodgrains ( ) Source: Estimated from FaoStat
5 Trajectories of Agriculture Transformation (1) Structural changes and contraction of Arg. Sector Huge productivity differences across sectors Source: FaoStat, GSO
6 Drivers and outcomes of Agr. Transformation (1) Population growth, Aging, Migration, Labour Force Drivers Climatic and Environment Changes Drivers Agriculture Transformation Drivers Changes in production technology, market access, marketing Drivers Land tenure, Land Fragmentation
7 Drivers and outcomes of Agr. Transformation (1) Demographic pressure: aging farm population and migration (2) Source: FaoStat, GSO
8 Drivers and outcomes of Agr. Transformation (2) Demographic pressure: aging farm population and migration (2) Challenges: Feminisation of Agriculture Source: FaoStat, GSO
9 Drivers and outcomes of Agr. Transformation (3) Fragmentation of landholdings Holding size Landlessn ess Below 0.5ha ha >= 1ha Agr. Area (1000 ha) Arable land (1000 ha) Source: Fao Stat (2014) Source: GSO
10 Drivers and outcomes of Agr. Transformation (3) Changing Technological Paradigm Large adoption of GR technologies indiscriminate exploitation of land and water resources + intensive use of fertilisers and pesticides environemental risks GM/biotech crops (rice, casava, maize and soybean)
11 (*) Transformation of Livestock sector (1) 900, , , , , , , , ,000 Production value (bil.vnd) Share in total Agriculture GDP (%) Agriculture Crop Livestock Source: GSO, 2013 Growth rate: 5.3%/year Livestock share in Agriculture GDP: 24.5% (2013) Crop Livestock Services Source: GSO, 2013
12 Transformation of Livestock sector (2) Animal Feed Dependent on imports Energy feed: 30-40% Protein-rich feed: 70-80% Mineral and others: 100% High prices: Higher prices than neighbor countries: 15-20% Dominance of foreign-invested companies 100% domestic-invested feed companies: 180 factories Joint-venture and 100% foreign-invested feed companies: 59 factories
13 Transformation of Livestock sector (3) Supply Thousand tons Pre Source: GSO, 2013 Buffalo Beef Pork Poultry
14 , , , ,382 1,578 1,697 1,822 1,891 2,071 2,072 2,113 2,160 2,205 Transformation of Livestock sector (4) Changing diet Production Domestic Consumption Pork Domestic Consumption Production 2,500 2,000 Poultry 1,500 1, Beef (Nguồn: GSO và MARD, FAOSTAT) Source: USDA, 2014 Dosmestic consumption Production
15 Transformation of Livestock sector (4) Livestock farms by regions Gradual shift from small-scale family farms to (semi-) commercial farms Other regions Southeast Mekong River Delta * 2012 Red River Delta Source: GSO, Pig producers by scale 1-4 heads 5-19 heads heads heads 100 and over Source: Agro Census, 2001, 2006, 2011; GSO, heads heads heads Poultry producers by scale heads heads or more
16 Critical challenges facing Agriculture and Livestock Socio-economic and demographic challenges Growing landlessness Growing number of women and elderly in Agriculture Challenges of Trade reforms and Dwindling state support Biotechnology and Environmental Challenges Climate change and Food Security Challenges
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