Food Security Risks, Threats and Opportunities in an Energy Hungry World: Impacts of farm-level crop production decision making

Transcription

1 Food Security Risks, Threats and Opportunities in an Energy Hungry World: Impacts of farm-level crop production decision making Paul Wilson Neryssa Glithero Stephen Ramsden

2 Introduction The Big 3 population increase; environmental change; energy Perfect Storm Prof. Sir John Beddington UK Chief Scientist Biofuels initially a saviour, now a threat to Food Supply EU targets for biofuels inclusion as part of energy supply Focus on liquid biofuels

3 Background First Generation Biofuel (FGB) dominates (wheat, sugar beet) in UK Some conflict of FGB with food supply; animal feedstock possible Second Generation Biofuel (SGB) / lignocellusic a research goal BBSRC UK Biological Research Council funder - 27m investment SGB public and policy difference between feedstock Sustainable SGB non carbon releasing land use (pasture) Dedicated Energy crops (LUC); co-products [e.g. straw] (iluc)

4 Food and Biofuel in Context UK 19m ha of land 6 m ha of arable land 3 m ha of cereals; Wheat dominates (~2 m ha; 16m tonnes grain) England and Wales; dedicated energy crops minority Wheat ( 170/t), OSR ( 380/t) high prices cf. pre 2007/08 price spike Food Security ethical (policy, public, farmer) concerns of energy crops Western / Northern world importing fuel from Southern Hemisphere Known technologies / machinery of food crops Potential for dual-purpose crops (grain-food; straw-fuel) Co-Product Second Generation Biofuel (CPSGB) focus

5 Aims of farm level decision making research To analyse: Energy balances in food and bioenergy crop production Environmental impacts of production and quantify the reduction in global warming potential resulting from farm level bioenergy production Trade-offs between food production, bioenergy production, environmental impacts and national crop supply Barriers and incentives to the use of co-products and energy crops at a farm level

6 MEETA Model Managing Energy and Emissions Trade-offs in Agriculture (MEETA) Labour & Machinery Maximise Profit Maximise Net Energy Balance Minimise GHG Emissions Land Seeds Fertilisers Crop Protection Labour & Machinery Crop Yields Fuel Crop Mix Energy GHG Emissions Straw Use vs. Energy vs. GHG Emissions Energy vs. GHG Emissions Impact on Food Land Use Change Potential for Sustainable Bioenergy Farmers Attitudes 400 ha Cereal farm Combinable crops and Miscanthus Associated machinery Rotations Constraints Objectives Selection of Optimum Inputs/Outputs Measured Trade - Offs Paper submitted to Agricultural Systems June 2011

7 Wheat Straw Price Area 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Wheat Straw Price /t WOSR Wfb Wbar WW Cont (ASR,SR) WW 2nd (ASR,SR) WW (NSR) WW (SR) GM and Net E Wheat Straw Price /t GHG Emissions GM (10's ) Net E (GJ) GHG Emissions (kg CO2 eq)

8 Policy Scenario Carbon Tax on GHG emissions from fossil fuel sources Ireland: 15 t CO 2 from liquid fuel and gas Denmark: 13 t CO 2 Australia: 23$Aus t CO 2 implemented with a levy threshold and exempt industries Area 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Carbon Tax /t CO2 WOSR Wfb Wbar WW 2nd WW GM and Net E Carbon Tax /t CO GHG Emissions Net E GM (10's /t) Emissions

9 MEETA Baseline Model For the default inputs and outputs: Optimising for gross margin Grow 1:1:1 winter wheat, winter barley and winter oilseed rape (400ha in total) Gross margin Net energy GJ Optimising the net energy Grow 100% miscanthus (20yr crop) Gross margin Net energy GJ Energy trade-off 5 per GJ of energy (~ 280k for 400ha; 700/ha) Promoting energy crops expensive, large impact on food supply Energy crops and straw use farmer attitudes important

10 Survey On-farm survey of 250 farmers Cereal, general cropping and mixed farm types England Using the expertise of RBR to carry out the survey Will tie in with the data collected in the Farm Business Survey Questionnaire aims: To gather data for model development and information To understand the contractual implications of large-scale biofuel feedstock supply To understand what is driving farmer cropping decisions: Information sources Barriers to new crops Straw use decisions

11 Contract Possibilities 28 respondents out of 36 to date Series1 2 0 Series1 2 0

12 Dedicated Bioenergy Crops SRC 30 No, 5 Yes, 1 Already Growing No: Land quality issues Long-term land commitment Time to financial return Yes: Profitability Market for the crop Ease of crop management Miscanthus 30 No, 6 Yes No: Long-term land commitment Time to financial return Profitability Yes: Ease of crop management Market for the crop Time to financial return Profitability

13 Future Work Survey: Collate and analyse survey data; possible postal survey Modelling: Complete transfer of the MEETA model to GAMS Incorporate GHG emissions from Miscanthus Extend crops (roots) and arable farm types Policy and market scenarios Communication: Farmers, policy makers, researchers

14 Conclusion Food Security and Energy Security inter-linked Perfect Storm looming large Need sustainable solutions Contemporary prices - food and co-product biofuel feedstock supply New income source for farmers and growers; economic resilience Lignocellulosic sector development? Environmental and energy credentials essential Farmer behaviour and attitudes important beyond finances Western world should not export its responsibility 14

15 Thank your for your attention Any questions?