Environmental impact assessment of CAP greening measures using CAPRI model
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1 Environmental impact assessment of CAP greening measures using CAPRI model JM Terres, C. Bulgheroni, A. Leip, ML Paracchini 19 th MARS conference Vilnius Plenary session: Environmental aspects of the CAP 1
2 Content CAPRI as an impact assessment tool Greening measures: effect on crops / livestock Greening measures environmental impacts, indicators Conclusions 2
3 Integrated economic and agri-environment modelling CAPRI for agri-environmental assessment: why? Provides input data to bio-physical models or to indicators (e.g crop shares, animal stocking densities, yields, input use (N,P,K; energy; feed...) These data (e.g. production, consumption, trade flows, prices, crop shares, yield, N-fertilizer input per crop ) are based on EU official data sources (FSS, FADN ) are consistent across scales: farm type / region / MS / EU / trade blocks are used in economic modules and passed to environmental models / indicators The CAPRI baseline is in line with DG-AGRI projections, provides benchmark for counterfactual scenarios Therefore consistent modelling chain for economic (farm income, trade flows ) and environmental assessment is ensured 3
4 CAPRI for agri-environmental assessment CAPRI CAPRI NUTS2 data Crops / Livestock Inputs Commodities Prices Income Agri-env indicators N balance GHG emission Biodiversity
5 CAP greening measures Modelisation of CAP greening measures (as proposed by EC in Oct 2011) Permanent grasslands: maintenance of grassland area to prevent its conversion to arable land. Ecological focus area (5% fallow and/or set-aside land of total eligible area, landscape features) Crop diversity: minimum 3 crops on arable land minimum and maximum thresholds for each crop set at 5% and 70% of the arable land, respectively. 6
6 Environmental impact of CAP greening Method: difference between greening scenario and no policy change Greening 2020 Baseline 2020 = net impact Greening 2020 Net impact Baseline 2020 Greening - Baseline
7 CAP Greening measures: effect on crops area, yield 1 General trends UAA stable Cereals decrease ( ha or -1.6%) Shift to Set aside & Fallow (+816,000 ha or +7,7%) (ecological focus area effect) Fodder increase (grassland +1.2M ha, 2.1%) (maintenance of pasture effect) Increase yield for cereal (+2.2%) (net effect) => Increased productivity
8 CAP Greening measures: effect on crops area Baseline (ha) Greening (% change) < ha < ha < ha < ha < ha Cereal area -28% % -12% -- -5% % % > 3%
9 CAP Greening measures: effect on crops area Baseline (ha) Greening (abs change) < ha < ha < ha < ha < ha Set-aside and Fallow 1000 ha -10 < > 10
10 CAP Greening measures: effect on EU livestock Absolute change (1000 head) All cattle activities Beef meat activities Other animals Sheep & Goat General trends decrease in livestock number(-0,45%) Larger for sheep and goat (absolute); Beef Meat (-1.1%) Increase yield for livestock (+1,6%) (net effect) => Increased productivity
11 Overall effects on land-use, cattle, productivity, income Net effect of greening measures: Decrease of cereal area Increase area of grassland (maintenance of pasture) Higher Set-aside and fallow (used for the Ecological Focus Area) Decrease number of beef meat animals, sheep and goat Cereal yield: +2.2% Cattle activities yield: +1.6% Importation of cereal ( t), mainly from Europe (non-eu) and North America Increased productivity Leakage effect of environmental impact Agricultural income: +0.87% Cost of CAP for tax payer: -0.06%
12 CAP greening measures environmental impact Nitrogen budget Input Mineral fertiliser Manure Biological fixation Crop residue Atmospheric deposition N budget - EU27 (1000t) Output Exported Crop Baseline Greening N Surplus total N mineral fertilizers N Manure
13 CAP greening measures environmental impact Nitrogen budget Baseline 2020 Greening (% change) (kg ha -1 ) < % % % % > 1,5% Very limited impact (-0.2 kg ha -1 for EU27)
14 CAP greening measures environmental impact Nitrogen budget Modest improvements for greening scenario in intensive cropping areas (lower cereal area) and in livestock farming regions (reduced number of animals) Smaller area for crops with high N fertilisation rate (wheat, maize) Larger area for ecological focus area (with no or lower fertiliser application) Smaller number of animal (=> less N manure produced), beef meat activities ( heads, -1.1%), pig ( heads, -0.25%), sheep and goat ( heads, -0.5%) and larger grassland area (+1.2m ha, +2.1%) where manure is spread. Baseline 2020 Greening 2020 Mineral N (kg ha -1 ) Manure N (kg ha -1 ) Mineral N (kg ha -1 ) Manure N (kg ha -1 ) EU 27 63,25 53,23 62,59 53,01 Greening (% change) % % % % < 123%
15 CAP greening measures environmental impact Global Warming Potential (CH 4, N 2 O) Greening scenario with slightly lower GWP (-0.5% for EU27) Higher decrease in BE, DE, NL, IE Methodology: IPCC for agricultural sector Baseline Greening (kg CO 2 eq ha -1 ) (kg CO 2 eq ha -1 ) Abs diff Percent diff Belgium ,0 Denmark ,3 Germany ,9 Austria ,4 Netherlands ,7 France ,8 Portugal ,2 Spain ,1 Greece ,5 Italy ,3 Ireland ,8 Finland ,1 Sweden ,1 United Kingdom ,5 Czech Republic ,6 Estonia ,6 Hungary ,9 Lithuania ,2 Latvia ,3 Poland ,2 Slovenia ,3 Slovak Republic ,8 Cyprus ,1 Malta ,2 Bulgaria ,2 Romania ,1 European Union ,5
16 CAP greening measures environmental impact Soil erosion Baseline (average t ha -1 year -1 ) Greening (abs change t ha -1 yr -1 ) 0 0,5 0, > > 5
17 Soil CAP erosion greening - Spain measures environmental impact Soil erosion - Spain Baseline (t ha -1 year -1 ) Greening (abs change) (t ha -1 year -1 ) Cereal Fodder on arable Pasture 0 0,5 0, >10 Permanent crops Pasture > 5
18 CAP Greening measures: Results (with CAPRI) Decrease (small) in cereal area Decrease (small) nb beef animals, sheep & goat Cereal yield: +2.2% Cattle activities yield: +1.6% => increased productivity Import cereal ( t), from Europe (non-eu) and North America Leakage (limited) effect outside EU on environment Overall, no (big) environmental changes between Greening and no policy change : N balance: limited positive impact (-0.2 kg ha -1 for EU27) Global Warming Potential: slightly lower GWP (-0.5% for EU27) Soil Erosion: no impact Agricultural income: +0.87% Cost of CAP for tax payer: -0.06% 23
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