UN Climate Change Talks: Prospects for Durban
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1 1 UN Climate Change Talks: Prospects for Durban 8 November 2011 CCIM/CCPIE Stakeholder meeting Brussel Peter Wittoeck FPS Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment Climate Change Section
2 2 Outcome of COP.16/CMP.6: The Cancún Agreements
3 3 A. Cancún Agreements - highlights UNFCCC process back on track, after CPH failure Copenhagen Accord effectively enshrined in UN agreement 2 C objective established + Review , based on IPCC AR5 Covers all elements of Bali Road Map Creation of new institutions Established many processes for way forward 3
4 4 B. Cancún Agreements outstanding issues decision on LULUCF, AAU surplus and enhancing CDM signal to ICAO/IMO on aviation and maritime transport signal to Montreal Protocol on HFCs decision on establishment of new market mechanism (KP or LCA) legally binding outcome and KP CP2, but options remain open intellectual Property Rights, equity, trade
5 5 C. Cancún Agreements ambition level 2 C objective review of LT goal in , based on IPCC AR5, incl. 1,5 C goal need for scaled-up overall mitigation efforts, developed countries showing leadership deep cuts in global emissions required according to science work towards identifying a global goal for 2050 peaking of global and national gas emissions ASAP, time frame will be longer in developing countries paradigm shift towards building a low-carbon society
6 6 D. Cancún Agreements - mitigation Developed countries (Kyoto and Convention) - Anchoring of pledges in INF document - Need to strengthen objectives - Workshops and technical paper to clarify assumptions and conditions - Enhanced MRV, incl. IAR Developing countries - Anchoring of pledges in INF document - Aimed at achieving a deviation from BAU in Workshops to increase understanding actions, assumptions and support needed - Registry to match NAMAs with support - Enhanced MRV, incl. ICA Process to consider market-based mechanisms (and non MBM) Kyoto: converting pledges to QELROs; base year 1990; continued use of market mechanism, LULUCF & the Global Warming Potential metric
7 7 E. Cancún Agreements - finance Goals - USD 30 billion (FSF): new & additional, balanced adaptation/mitigation, priority to LDCs, SIDS and Africa - USD 100 billion per year by 2020: wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources Establishment of Green Climate Fund - equal representation AI/non-AI in Board - world Bank as interim Trustee - further design left to Transitional Committee - significant share of new multilateral adaptation funding through Green Climate Fund Establishment of Standing Committee - coherence and coordination - rationalization of financial mechanism - mobilization of resources - MRV of support - roles and functions to be further defined. 7
8 8 F. Cancún Agreements other issues Establishment of Adaptation Framework & Adaptation Committee + work programme to consider loss & damage REDD+ Mechanism established + work programme for modalities and guidelines for REDD+ actions and process for exploring financing options Creation of Technology mechanism, including Technology Executive Committee and Climate Technology Center and Network Capacity building process for 2011 focusing on monitoring and review of effectiveness of CB & modalities for institutional arrangements
9 9 From Cancún to Durban
10 10 A. Cancún to Durban: UNFCCC process AWGs: Bangkok (3-8 April) AWGs & SBs: Bonn (6 17 June) AWGs: Panama (1-7 October) COP 17/CMP 7, AWGs, SBs: Durban (28 November - 9 December)
11 11 B. Cancún to Durban: key challenges Making progress on outstanding political gaps: 1) Ambition/emissions gap + MRV 2) Legal form gap 3) Finance gap Operationalising / implementing Cancún Agreements
12 12 Cancún Durban Mitigation ambition 2 C Review Review? pledges Process to ramp up ambition? Legal form Finance Kyoto Protocol CP 1 Kyoto Protocol CP 2? Negotiate LBI? Comprehensive LBI? FSF 30 G$ Path for scaling up climate finance? 100 G$/yr
13 13 C. Cancún to Durban: state of play KP: Fairly clear-cut draft decisions on most issues political decisions needed Environmental integrity : finalising decision on LULUCF rules Solving AAU issue Improving flexible mechanisms Progress on establishment of new mechanism LCA: New LCA agenda after long & intense discussions in Bangkok Panamá: draft decision texts for all issues exceptions: response measures / REDD+ financing options
14 14 D. Operationalizing / implementing Cancún Finance institutions Operationalising Standing Committee: Functions: supervisory vs. advisory role Composition: balanced vs. equal Link with other institutions: UNFCCC and non-unfccc
15 15 D. Operationalizing / implementing Cancún Finance institutions (ctd) Operationalising Green Climate Fund (TC proposal): legal and institutional arrangements (relation to the COP) rules of procedure of the Board and other governance issues financial instruments, funding windows and access modalities enhance complementarity with other bilateral, regional and multilateral mechanisms role of secretariat and the procedure for selecting it periodic independent evaluation of the Fund s performance; financial accountability and performance of activities provision of appropriate expert and technical advice stakeholder input and participation
16 16 D. Operationalizing / implementing Cancún Technology Mechanism Governance Relationship COP/TEC/CTC Governing board of the CTC Selection of CTC host: Selection criteria/procedure for call for proposals Funding of operation costs and services Institutional link to Financial Mechanism soft link: guidance to the FM through the COP? hard link: funding of technology projects through thematic window of the GCF + TEC providing selection criteria
17 17 D. Operationalizing / implementing Cancún Adaptation Committee Adaptation Committee: composition & size modalities and procedures linkages with other institutions, esp. institutional link to finance Interim decision on Work programme on loss and damage? Decision on guidelines for developing National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
18 18 D. Operationalizing / implementing Cancún Market mechanisms New market-based mechanism Establishment or just progress towards establishment? Common rules or opt-in (environmental and market integrity)? Modalities and procedures for CCS in the CDM Improvement of the CDM Continuation of JI post 2012 Appeal procedure for the CDM Materiality in the CDM
19 19 D. Operationalizing / implementing Cancún REDD+ SBSTA: Modalities for setting national forest (emission) reference levels and national forest monitoring systems Modalities for MRV of REDD+ activities Guidance on system for monitoring safeguards LCA : financing options for REDD+ under phase 3: Which activities? Sources? Specific window for REDD+ under GCF? (not foreseen by TC) Decision in Durban expected by many Parties
20 20 Thank you!
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