Mitigation of Climate Change and the LULUCF sector

Transcription

1 Mitigation of Climate Change and the LULUCF sector Zoltán Somogyi NARIC Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest Sopron, 17 May 2017 partially using results of research supported by AGRARKLÍMA.2 VKSZ_ and EMMRE

2 Huston, we have a problem

3 We have disrupted Earth s recent carbon equilibrium (10 9 tc) Athmosphere Biosphere 550 Fossile fuels Soils Oceans 900 ( ) 80 IPCC 2014, Global Carbon Budget 2014

4 We have disrupted Earth s recent carbon equilibrium (10 9 tc) Athmosphere ± ± Biosphere 550 Fossile fuels ± ± 0.5 Soils Oceans 900 ( ) 80 IPCC 2014, Global Carbon Budget 2014

5 Remember the Tragedy of the Commons! (William Foster Lloyd, 1833) Earth has only ONE athmosphere it does not matter from where (country, sector, place, source etc.) GHGs get to the air, and how net emissions are reduced so we MUST act TOGETHER

6 The Paris Agreement forsees that emissions are balanced by sinks (if any) by 2050 do we really have a chance to achieve this wish and to sustain acceptable climate?

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9 Sustainability has so far been defined in narrative ways efghijkl kl mnop qrs tuvwx yzab cdefghijk imno abcd pqrst uvxyza bcd efg hijkl mn opq rstu vwxyzabcd mn efghij opqrs tuv wxyza bcdef ghijklmno pqrstu vwxy zabcd efghijkl

10 Sustainability of the utilization of environmental capacities has nothing to do with narratives efghijkl kl mnop qrs tuvwx yzab cdefghijk imno abcd pqrst uvxyza bcd efg hijkl mn opq rstu vwxyzabcd mn efghij opqrs tuv wxyza bcdef ghijklmno pqrstu vwxy zabcd efghijkl Somogyi, 2016

11 Just like in science, sustainability can only be assessed if we apply the language of numbers: we cannot understand [our beautiful universe] if we do not first learn the language and grasp the symbols in which it is written. The book [of nature] is written in mathematical language Galileo Galilei

12 & observe the law of the conservation of mass and energy Somogyi, 2016

13 & observe the law of the conservation of mass and energy Somogyi, 2016

14 & observe the law of the conservation of mass and energy Somogyi, 2016

15 & observe the law of the conservation of mass and energy Somogyi, 2016

16 & observe the law of the conservation of mass and energy Somogyi, 2016

17 Our projected future is it really this that we want?? IEA New Policies Scenario, 2013

18 LULUCF: a not enough big drop in the sea

19 LULUCF Greenhouse Gas Inventory of the European Union, 2017

20 AFOLU + related Greenhouse Gas Inventory of the European Union, 2017

21 emissions from Deforestation Global mitigation potentials in AFOLU Up to 20USD/tCO 2 eq Forestry Agriculture IPCC AR5, WG III

22 emissions from Deforestation Global mitigation potentials in AFOLU Up to 20USD/tCO 2 eq Forestry Agriculture Up to 50USD/tCO 2 eq IPCC AR5, WG III

23 emissions from Deforestation Global mitigation potentials in AFOLU Up to 20USD/tCO 2 eq Forestry Agriculture Up to 50USD/tCO 2 eq Up to 100USD/tCO 2 eq IPCC AR5, WG III

24 The LULUCF sector could mitigate <10% of all emissions in the EU extend / let extend forest area: additional annual sink of 70 MtCO 2 by 2030 manage forest area differently, including protecting non-biomass carbon pools: additional annual sink of 170 MtCO 2 by 2050 EU domestic woody biomass/residues/low-quality thinning wood: additional emission reduction of 180 Mt CO 2 EFI, 2017

25 LULUCF: a complex sector

26 Any action in forests will affect all linked elements of the system! Air decomposition tree growth DEAD WOOD LITTER DEAD ROOTS SOIL BIOMASS mortality, disturbances HARVESTED WOOD harvest FUELWOOD production WOOD PRODUCTS

27 Any action in forests will affect all linked elements of the system! Air decomposition tree growth DEAD WOOD LITTER DEAD ROOTS SOIL BIOMASS mortality, disturbances HARVESTED WOOD harvest FUELWOOD production WOOD PRODUCTS

28 Final harvest in the South-East Carpathians. Photo: Adrian Valean (transindex.ro)

29 Biomass, soil, deadwood, litter less and disturbed soil, no biomass, no litter Final harvest in the South-East Carpathians. Photo: Adrian Valean (transindex.ro)

30 Any action in forests will affect all linked elements of the system! Air decomposition HARVESTED WOOD tree growth DEAD WOOD LITTER DEAD ROOTS SOIL harvest BIOMASS mortality, disturbances regeneration FUELWOOD production WOOD PRODUCTS

31 energy substitution material substitution Any action in forests will affect all linked elements of the system! Air decomposition HARVESTED WOOD tree growth DEAD WOOD LITTER DEAD ROOTS SOIL harvest BIOMASS mortality, disturbances regeneration FUELWOOD production WOOD PRODUCTS

32 All emissions and removals are not created equal: we need large removals NOW much more than reduced removals later

33 To ensure the sustainability of acceptable climate, both the RATE of emission reductions and TIMING are essential! the same total net emission reduction until e.g could (in theory) be achieved in different ways the longer excess GHGs are in the athmosphere, the higher global warming is going to be so emitting a lot first then reducing emissions later is not the same as removing first and emitting later

34 Example: energy from woody biomass burning wood, too, produces GHG emissions so it can only be better/worse relative to other methods not burning may lead to delayed emissions + removals

35 If we have a mature stand with some more growth before it collapses, and then immediately regenerates itself, with wood decay and regrowth afterwards should we burn it for energy or not?

36 Cumulative net CO 2 emissions from burning natural gas to produce unit energy in year 1 plus not harvesting the stand

37 Cumulative net CO 2 emissions from burning natural gas to produce unit energy in year 1 plus not harvesting an existing stand

38 Net CO 2 emissions from all wood from the stand (to generate the same amount of energy) plus avoided emissions brom burning natural gas

39 Harvesting existing forests for burning wood produces extra emissions for some time!

40 Setting aside can save lots of carbon for decades - example: carbon in the Swedish forests EFI, 2016 based on Gustavsson et al., 2017

41 Setting aside can save lots of carbon for decades - example: carbon in the Swedish forests EFI, 2016 based on Gustavsson et al., 2017

42 Effects of forest-related mitigation options Example: net emissions from the Swiss forests Werner et al., 2010

43 Effects of forest-related mitigation options Example: net emissions from the Swiss forests Werner et al., 2010

44 Potential long-term impact of forest management strategies from a very recent submission to the Commission of an EU Member State sink emissions BETTER??? FAVOURED by the MS

45 Mitigation at all costs??

46 Harvesting forests for carbon can affect many other products and services biodiversity wildlife water retention water clearing erosion control soil protection genetical resources should we not optimize for all of these, instead of focussing on one service only?

47 Forests are vulnerable

48 What happens if forests cannot endure climate change? is it possible that forests cannot survive? in addition to declining forests not acting as sinks any more, huge emissions may also arise from their huge carbon stocks!! what can we do to mitigate this?

49 Beach: the greater the cumulative drought, the larger the ratio of damaged area Rasztovics et al., 2014

50 Beach: the greater the cumulative drought, the larger the ratio of damaged area Rasztovics et al., 2014 with fitting by Somogyi, 2017

51 If temperature increases as predicted RCP 8.5 RCP chart by Gálos, B. 2017: regional climate projections based on IPCC RCP trajectories

52 the occurrence and severity of droughts will most probably increase, too data from Gálos, B. 2017: regional climate projections based on IPCC RCP trajectories

53 cumulative ratio of area of forest dieback, % The resulting forest dieback could drastically increase, causing massive emissions Somogyi, 2017

54 Conclusions Shouldn t we: stop sending a wrong signal that the forest sector can solve all problems? stop overemphasizing carbon at the cost of other important services? consider forests be more subjects to protection rather than means of mitigation, in order to avoid huge future emissions?

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56 Examples: forest management options thin more or less intensively modify age of final harvest transit to close-to-nature forestry use better propagation material conduct quality work during tending, thinnings and regeneration to better ensure stand stability etc.