William S. Keeton, Ph.D. University of Vermont. Carbon, Conservation, and Communities in the Carpathians

Transcription

1 William S. Keeton, Ph.D. University of Vermont Carbon, Conservation, and Communities in the Carpathians

2 Co-Benefits: Climate mitigation Late-successional habitats Watershed Protection Revenue benefiting institutions and communities Photo Credit: William Keeton

3 Develop capacity in western Ukraine for forest carbon projects. Ultimate purpose: incentivize sustainable forest management, biodiversity conservation, and communitybased sustainable economic development. Photo Credit: William Keeton

4 A project ready portfolio of assets : Analytical resources Forest inventory data, Geographic Information Systems data Regionally calibrated growth and yield simulation models Estimated additionality and credit value for: Close-to-nature silviculture Avoided degradation of primary (or virgin ) forests Institutional mechanisms: Involvement of community-based organization Revenue sharing or benefits Partnering of international investors, donors, and funding agencies with non -governmental organizations and institutions, such as the Carpathian Biosphere Reserve and Ukrainian State Forestry Enterprises

5 Proposal for Demonstration Project: Feasibility analysis Project type(s) Project site(s) Stakeholders and Partners Methodologies, data, and analysis Institutions and communities Environmental and social co-benefits Photo Credit: William Keeton

6 From: Kuemmerle, T., P. Olofsson, O. Chaskovskyy, M. Baumann, K. Ostapowicz, C.E. Woodcok, R. Houghton, P. Hostert, W.S. Keeton, and V.C. Radeloff Post-Soviet farmland abandonment, forest recovery, and carbon sequestration in western Ukraine. Global Change Biology 17:

7 Net carbon fluxes due to land-use change in western Ukraine, 1900 to 2007 From: Kuemmerle, T., P. Olofsson, O. Chaskovskyy, M. Baumann, K. Ostapowicz, C.E. Woodcok, R. Houghton, P. Hostert, W.S. Keeton, and V.C. Radeloff Post-Soviet farmland abandonment, forest recovery, and carbon sequestration in western Ukraine. Global Change Biology 17:

8 Options for Ukraine Joint Implementation Agreements Annex 1 countries (e.g. EU) earn credits for C investment in transitional economies (e.g. Ukraine and Romania) Currently afforestation/reforestation (AR) only Successor agreement may add REDD+ Voluntary Markets Credits bought and sold internationally to offset emissions AR, Avoided Deforestation, and Improved Forest Management (IFM) We are looking at the Verified Carbon Stand (VCS) and Climate, Community, and Biodiversity Alliance (CCB)

9 Transaction volume by project location, 2010

10 Transaction volume by project type, 2010

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14 Avoided deforestation projects will require: Extrapolation and interpretation at landscape scales to identify high priority areas Main-knorn, M., G. G. Moisen, S. P. Healey, W. S. Keeton, E. A. Freeman, and P. Hostert Evaluating the remote sensing and inventory-based estimation of biomass in the western Carpathians. Remote Sensing 3:

15 Carbon Project Options: Afforestation (not historically forested) Reforestation (historically forested but not currently) REDD (Reduced Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation Improved Forest Management (IFM) Reduced Impact Logging (RIL) Logged to Protected Forests (LtPF) Low to Highly Productive Forests (LtPH) Extended Rotation Age (ERA) Others to be developed

16 Adopted protocol on Sustainable Forest Management. Includes: - Protection of virgin forests - Restoration of close to nature forests - Enhancing role of forests in climate mitigation, including carbon stocks Photo credit: William Keeton

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18 Old-growth remains under threat From: Knorn, J., T. Kuemmerle, A. Szabo, M. Mindrescu, W. S. Keeton, V. C. Radeloff, I. Abrudan, P. Griffiths, V. Gancz, and P. Hostert. Forest restitution and protected area effectiveness in post-socialist Romania. Biological Conservation. In Press

19 Old-growth remains under threat From: Knorn, J., T. Kuemmerle, A. Szabo, M. Mindrescu, W. S. Keeton, V. C. Radeloff, I. Abrudan, P. Griffiths, V. Gancz, and P. Hostert. Forest restitution and protected area effectiveness in post-socialist Romania. Biological Conservation. In Press.

20 Avoided deforestation projects will require: Better estimates of biomass across broader range of forest types, sites, and ages Changing the perception that oldgrowth forests are carbon sources Pictured: Gorgany Zapovidnik, Ukraine Photo credit: William Keeton

21 Aboveground biomass (Mg/ha) Mature Old-growth Northern Hardwoods, Northeastern USA Douglasfir/western hemlock, Pacific Northwest USA Southern beech, Tiera Del Fuego, Chile Broad-leaved Korean pine, Changbai, China European beech Spruce-Fir Data from: Keeton, W. S., M. Chernyavskyy, G. Gratzer, M. Main-Knorn, M. Shpylchak, and Y. Bihun Structural characteristics and aboveground biomass of old-growth spruce-fir stands in the eastern Carpathian mountains, Ukraine. Plant Biosystems 144: 1-12 Keeton, W.S., S. Burrascano, C. Pucko, C. Blasi, Y. Bihun, J. Chen, M. Chernyavskyy, B. Commarmot, J.F. Franklin, G. Gratzer, J.S. Nunery, Y. Shparyk, T.A. Spies, and M.E. Swanson A global analysis of temperate old-growth forests: commonality in carbon storage and co-varying ecosystem functions. International Forestry Review 12(5):3.

22 Aboveground biomass (Mg/ha) Mature Old-growth Northern Hardwoods, Northeastern USA Douglasfir/western hemlock, Pacific Northwest USA Southern beech, Tiera Del Fuego, Chile Broad-leaved Korean pine, Changbai, China European beech Spruce-Fir Carpathians, Ukraine Data from: Keeton, W. S., M. Chernyavskyy, G. Gratzer, M. Main-Knorn, M. Shpylchak, and Y. Bihun Structural characteristics and aboveground biomass of old-growth spruce-fir stands in the eastern Carpathian mountains, Ukraine. Plant Biosystems 144: 1-12 Keeton, W.S., S. Burrascano, C. Pucko, C. Blasi, Y. Bihun, J. Chen, M. Chernyavskyy, B. Commarmot, J.F. Franklin, G. Gratzer, J.S. Nunery, Y. Shparyk, T.A. Spies, and M.E. Swanson A global analysis of temperate old-growth forests: commonality in carbon storage and co-varying ecosystem functions. International Forestry Review 12(5):3.

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24 Demonstrated economic profitability of conversion cutting in Norway spruce plantations Developed a close-to-nature silvicultural system Established 126 demonstration sites for close-to-nature silviculture on multiple State Forestry Enterprises and CBR buffer areas in Transcarpathia. Close-to-nature silviculture trials conducted in 36 forest types Figure from: FORZA End of Phase Report.

25 Restoration forestry in the Carpathians: spruce to mixed species conversion Photo Credits: William Keeton

26 Slide courtesy of Jared Nunery, Rainforest Alliance-Smartwood

27 Total Biomass (Mg/ha) Conversion Only Data: Courtesy of Yuri Derbal, FORZA Modeling performed by Dmytro Karabchuk, Carbon Dynamics Lab Modeled Year

28 Total Biomass (Mg/ha) No Conversion, No Mgt. Conversion Only Modeled Year

29 Total Biomass (Mg/ha) No Conversion, No Mgt. No Conversion, Conventional Mgt. Conversion Only Modeled Year

30 Total Biomass (Mg/ha) No Conversion, No Mgt. No Conversion, Conventional Mgt. Conversion Only Conversion, Selection Harvesting 29 Mg/ha Mg/ha 94 Mg/ha Modeled Year

31 Recalibrating a growth and yield model for the Carpathians

32 Day One: Plenary session Lunch and keynote Field trip to demonstration site Day Two Introduction to group work Working group sessions Synthesis Photo Credits: William Keeton

33 Data, Modeling, and Geographic Information Systems Potential Project Sites Funding Mechanisms Integration with Wood Bioenergy Institutions and Communities

34 * Participatory process is key! Problem statement Current capacity Capacity needs Next steps Synthesis of recommendations Basis for proposal outline

35 Acknowledgements: Trust for Mutual Understanding European Forest Institute U.S. Fulbright Program Ukraine UVM Institute for Environmental Diplomacy and Security Дякую Thank you