ROADMAP FROM REL TO MRV IN BERAU: LESSONS FOR REDD+ ESTABLISHMENT ALFAN SUBEKTI THE NATURE CONSERVANCY

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1 ROADMAP FROM REL TO MRV IN BERAU: LESSONS FOR REDD+ ESTABLISHMENT ALFAN SUBEKTI THE NATURE CONSERVANCY WORKSHOP ON METHODS FOR BIOMASS ESTIMATION AND FOREST COVER MAPPING IN THE TROPICS Samarinda, November 8, 2010

2 OUTLINE OVERVIEW OF BERAU & BFCP PARTNERSHIP IN REL ESTABLISHMENT PROGRESS OF REL IN BERAU ROAD MAP TO NATIONAL MRV

3 Overview of Berau District Berau has 2.2 million ha of forest (88%) State Forest: largely governed by the Ministry of Forestry Production Forest (44%) Intended for permanent production forest; allows for selected logging concessions; intensively managed plantations; conservation forest; and other uses. Protection Forest (26%) Designated for areas within the state forest that meet criteria designed to safeguard hydrological functions; areas allow for extraction of non-timber forest product; managed by regional government. Non-State Forest: under regional government s control Land for Other Uses (30%) Land outside state forest designated for agriculture (including oil palm plantation), settlements and other uses. While this is non forest land in an administrative sense, substantial areas of land in this category, as large as 455,497 hectares, are covered by primary or secondary forest.

4 Berau Forest Carbon Program Vision: Berau is a model of low carbon growth development and sustainable natural resources management Mission: Effective management of land (800k hectares/50%) Emission reduction (10 MtonCO 2 ) Sustainable livelihood for community in villages engaged in BFCP Environmental co-benefits Institutional capacity Learning

5 PARTNERSHIP TO DEVELOP CARBON ACCOUNTING APPROACH FOR BFCP

6 General BFCP approach to carbon accounting Goals: Support development of a national REDD+ program Generate Verified Emissions Reductions (VERs) against a district-wide baseline for a future compliance market as part of an anticipated post-2012 climate treaty framework. Approach: Since the accounting methods for verification within a future REDD+ mechanism are not yet know, BFCP will use best available guidance and approaches IPCC Good Practice Guidelines, GOFC-GOLD Sourcebook (GOFC-GOLD, 2009). Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) (the most advanced and well recognized carbon accounting standard available) Advance methods for nesting carbon accounting within provincial and national scales. Pioneer methods for achieving verifiable emissions reductions through IFM

7 Carbon Accounting Steps for BFCP Scoping Project area Strategies Standards Nesting REL Area change Emissions factors Reference region BAU projection Additionality Assess strategy costs, effectiveness, & co-benefits Estimate emissions avoided MR & Verification Monitoring Reporting Verification MR & Validation Monitoring plan Reporting (PDD) Validation & registration Buffers & Discounts Leakage estimate Permanence estimate Transact Credits 6 5 4

8 Progress to date: partnership approach Analysis of approaches Review of information gaps for VCS (TerraCarbon) Analysis of reference regions (TNC) Activity data Deforestation and undifferentiated degradation activity data using Landsat (ICRAF) Synthesis of harvest data from legal logging (TNC) Carbon stocks and emission factors Compilation of datasets (ICRAF/UNMUL) New inventory plots outside of natural forest (ICRAF/UNMUL) New inventory plots in natural forest (TNC/WHRC) ongoing Emission factors from conventional logging (Winrock) Emission factors from RIL (TNC) ongoing REL Options Simple historic projection (ICRAF & TNC) Spatially explicit modeling using IDRISI (TNC & ICRAF) Population modeling (ICRAF) Spatial plan modeling (TNC) ongoing Analysis of with project scenario Marxan with Zones analysis of effectiveness (U.Queensland) ongoing

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13 Carbon Density 1990

14 Carbon Density 2008

15 REFERENCE EMISSION LEVEL OF BERAU

16 Question: What is the most accurate method for predicting the amount of deforestation within districts of East Kalimantan?

17 Alternative methods for predicting deforestation (i.e. REL) at sub-national scale Simple Complex Historical Rate of project area 1 Historical Rate (with adjustments) Trend analysis. Forward Looking Non-spatially explicit model (e.g. population-forest fraction) Planned (e.g. legal license to log/convert) Rate derived from reference region. Spatially explicit modeling 2 3

18 Nested RELs National Scale: Historic mean, with negotiated adjustments? Sub-National Scale (e.g. State/Province): Reference region analysis? Population to establish how much? Separate models for deforestation vs. degradation? Project Scale: Mixed. Reference region or Modeled projection for unplanned events? Book-keeping for planned events / strategies?

19 Breakdown of expected emissions and Sub-sector land use expected impact of strategies Total of changes area (ha) Emission factor (tco2/yr) REL (tco2/yr ) % of total REL Coverage Area in BFCP 2 nd Year Effectivity/ ha Year 3-5 Effectivity/ ha Target of emission reduction (% REL) Total emission reduction/ year (in 5 yr) Corporate Legal Logging 789, ,463,321 19% 650,000 28% 55% 32% 1,098,164 Illegal logging (protected forest) 370, ,100 4% 370,000 25% 50% 35% 262,885 Corporate Oil Palm 9, ,500,000 25% 4,000 35% 70% 22% 980,000 Corporate Forest Plant. 7, ,500,000 20% 0 25% 50% 0% 0 Corporate Coal Mining 1, ,000 3% 0 15% 30% 0% 0 Shifting Cultivation 30, ,500,000 8% 2,000 25% 50% 2% 35,000 Small Scale Mangrove Logging 2, ,184 4% 0 25% 50% 0% 0 Shrimp Farming 500 1, ,000 5% 0 25% 50% 0% 0 non-specific Degradation 6, ,187,491 12% 0 0% 0% 0% 0 Total 1,215,269 17,944, % 1,026,000 13% 2,376,049 * Note: REL based on historic emission

20 BFCP Carbon Accounting and LINKAGE TO MRV NATIONAL

21 BFCP & National MRV Development An MRV system must be: Transparent Accountable Independent National level National MRV institution being developed (requirement of Norway LOI) INCAS (Indonesia National Carbon Accounting System) will be key part of this Sub-national level Will need to play key roles for data collection and management BFCP more methodologies, policies & experiences will be demonstrated to improve National MRV

22 Challenges and next steps Challenges Lack of methods internationally Lack of national approach, including concept of nesting of subnational District-level bundling not covered in project methodologies, but an important experiment Spatial plan for East Kalimantan not decided, which means program cannot predict emissions, cannot finalize approaches, etc. Next steps in Berau Increased integration with national level as MRV institution setup District-level methodology for REDD (avoiding oil palm, reducing degradation of protection forest), improved forest management Initiate reference level negotiation process Improved carbon inventory