CLIMATE CHANGE AND NEW ENGLAND FORESTS

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND NEW ENGLAND FORESTS Maria Janowiak Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science USDA Forest Service Climate Change Response Framework

2 Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessments Examine a range of future climates Do not make recommendations Sources of information: Models Published research Local managers and experts Download:

3 Climate Change & Regional Forests This presentation will describe: Observed climate trends Projected changes in climate Impacts to tree species & forest ecosystems Sources: Existing climate change assessments & literature Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis (in prep for 2016)

4 How is the climate changed over the past century?

5 Annual Temperature Change ( ) Mean Minimum Maximum Temperature change ( F) 2.4 F 3.0 F 1.9 F deg F per year = 2.4 F over 111 years Substantial inter-annual fluctuation Statistically significant trend P-value < 0.1 Source: Climate Wizard

6 Seasonal Mean Temperature Change Temperature change ( F) Winter (Dec-Feb) Spring (Mar-May) 3.5 F 2.2 F Summer (Jun-Aug) Fall (Sep-Nov) 2.2 F 1.8 F Statistically significant trend P-value < 0.1 Source: Climate Wizard

7 Annual Precipitation Change ( ) Precipitation change (inches) 6.9 Inches 0.06 inches per year = 6.9 inches over 110 years Substantial inter-annual fluctuation Statistically significant trend P-value < 0.1 Source: Climate Wizard

8 Seasonal Precipitation Change ( ) Precipitation change (inches) Winter (Dec-Feb) Spring (Mar-May) 0.6 in 1.6 in Summer (Jun-Aug) Fall (Sep-Nov) 1.7 in 3.0 in Statistically significant trend P-value < 0.1 Source: Climate Wizard

9 Extreme Precipitation Events The amount of precipitation falling in single events increased between 1948 and 2007 One-inch events Two-inch events Four-inch events Source: Spierre and Wake 2010

10 Sea-level Rise Sea level rose about 1 foot since 1900 Increases in coastal flooding Relative sea level rise: Newport, RI tide gauge Increased about 10 over last 100 years Adapted from J. Boothroyd, University of Rhode Island

11 How is the climate expected to change over the next century?

12 Future Changes: Inherent Uncertainty Two scenarios of future emissions IPCC 2007, Graphic: C. Wake, Univ. New Hampshire

13 Climate Scenarios Used Two scenarios show the range of possible change PCM B1: Low emissions scenario + less sensitive GCM GFDL A1FI: High emissions + more sensitive GCM Projections are consistent with other data sets Think of them like bookends: PCM Low emissions (B1) GFDL High emissions (A1FI) Least Projected Change Most Projected Change

14 Anticipated Change: Temperature Warmer temperatures Continued temperature increases of 2-8 F Change in 30-year average ( F) vs Change in Annual Temperature ( ) Low High

15 Anticipated Change: Precipitation Variable projections: slight decrease to more than 15% increase in annual precipitation Winter & spring: generally wetter Summer & fall: Greater variability suggesting decreases or only slight increases Inundation from the Pawtuxet River spreading through Providence Street in West Warwick, RI Image:

16 Extreme Precipitation Events Extreme precipitation has increased dramatically Precip in heaviest 1% of events increased 71% between 1958 to 2012 Trend expected to continue/increase Change in 2-inch Precipitation Events (late 21 st century) Change: 2 Precip Events per Decade B1 A2 Kunkel et al. 2013; Figure: Center for Climatic Change,

17 Anticipated Change: Sea-level Rise Continued increases of multiple feet Enhanced storm surge Projected of areas affected by sea level rise along Rhode Island sea coast Figure: STORMTOOLS,

18 How could forests be affected?

19 Longer Growing Seasons Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks by 2100 Growing Season End of Century Change Change in Growing Season (days) Low (B1) High (A2) Center for Climatic Change,

20 Longer Growing Seasons Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons Evidence of phenological shifts Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014

21 Longer Growing Seasons Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons Evidence of phenological shifts Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality Early bud break/loss of cold hardening Frost damage during spring freezing Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014

22 Shorter Winter, Less Snow Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth 30-70% decreases in snowfall Greatest snowfall decreases in December or January Percent change in snowfall (late 21 st century) Percent Change in Snowfall Low (B1) High (A2) Notaro et al. 2014; Figure: Center for Climatic Change,

23 Shorter Winter = Less Snow Challenge: Decreased snowpack Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015

24 Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain

25 Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain Challenge: Altered stream flow timing and amount Earlier spring peak flows Potential increases in flashiness and episodic high flows Potential declines in summer seasonal stream flow

26 Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from trees (transpiration) Precipitation Water loss from soils (evaporation) Runoff Groundwater recharge

27 Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Warmer temps increase water loss Water loss from trees (transpiration) Precipitation Water loss from soils (evaporation) Runoff Groundwater recharge

28 Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Warmer temps increase water loss Water loss from trees (transpiration) Precipitation Water loss from soils (evaporation) Runoff Groundwater recharge

29 Increased Carbon Dioxide Image:

30 Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity: Increased productivity from CO 2 Increased photosynthesis Increased water use efficiency Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

31 Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity: Increased productivity* Increased photosynthesis Increased water use efficiency *Effect likely limited: Limited sink strength Interactions with nitrogen Ozone damage Other reductions in productivity (e.g., moisture stress, disturbance) Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

32 Changes in Habitat Suitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species

33 Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect Land use Competition Management

34 Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect Land use Competition Management Climate Change Atlas: What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes? 134 Trees 147 Birds Iverson et al. 2008; Atlas website:

35 Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect White Pine: Current Habitat (modeled) PCM B1 (Less Change) GFDL A1FI (More Change)

36 Changes in Habitat Suitability Habitat based on: Temperature Precipitation Elevation Latitude Soils Slope & Aspect Black Oak: Current Habitat (modeled) PCM B1 (Less Change) GFDL A1FI (More Change)

37 Changes in Habitat Suitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future Changes will occur slowly not instant dieback Mature and established trees should fare better Immense lags to occupy habitats Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance

38 Extreme Events Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events Heavy precipitation Ice storms Heat waves/droughts Wind storms Hurricanes Events are not well modeled Dan Turner, Cambridge Fire Dept. VTRANS/VT ANR NY DEC

39 Interactions: Wildfire Challenge: Increased wildfire potential Fire may increase: Warmer/drier summers Increased stress or mortality from less suitable conditions Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines Fire may not change: Spring/early summer moisture Current regeneration of more mesic species Spatial patterns of land use and fragmentation Fire suppression Clark et al. 2014

40 Interactions: Insects and Disease Challenge: Increased forest insects & diseases Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility Direct: Pests migrating northward Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures Accelerated lifecycles HWA lethal temp: -20 to -30 F Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007

41 Interactions: Invasive Plants Challenge: Increased invasive & noxious plants Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success Direct: Expanded ranges under warmer conditions Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO 2 Dukes et al. 2009, Rustad et al. 2011; Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (

42 Second to last slide... Generally Challenges Reduced growth: moisture stress Decline of northern/boreal species Disturbance from extreme events Wildfire potential Forests pests & disease Invasive species Generally Opportunities Increased productivity: longer growing season Increased productivity: more CO 2 Increased habitat for some species What would you add?

43 Last Slide: Location, Location, Location Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions and management make the difference.

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