The Pyrogeographyof Wildfires in the Western U.S.

Transcription

1 The Pyrogeographyof Wildfires in the Western U.S. Dr. Michael Medler 1

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5 The pumps buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment, no matter what we do, Titanic will founder. But this ship can't sink! She's made of iron, sir! I assure you, she can... and she will. It is a mathematical certainty. 5

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8 Drivers Climate change The last century of fire policies Rapid development 8

9 Pat Oliphant 8/26/2002 WUI 9

10 9/29/

11 Dendropyrochronology dendropyrochronology: The science that uses tree rings to date and study past and present changes in wildfires. 11

12 How much fire would we expect if we weren't suppressing it? 12

13 CAPTION: Mean Fire Return Interval data for Washington and Georgia. Note that the short fire return interval frequencies in Georgia would lead us to expect far larger areas burned each year if fires were occurring at these intervals Mean Fire Return Interval 10 hectare plots 1 Year 2 Years 5 Years 13

14 Mean Fire Return Interval 10 hectare plots 1 Year 2 Years 5 Years = = = Mean Area Burned Each Year = 17 Hectares Mean Fire Return Interval Mean Fire Return Interval 10 hectare plots 10 Years 50 Years 250 Years = =. =. Mean Area Burned Each Year = 1.24 Hectares 14

15 Mean Fire Return Interval 15

16 2015 Western Burning Deficit Mean Fire Hectares / Year Max Total FRI Hectares / Year Min Total FRI Max Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Hectares / Year Min Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Alaska 493, , ,037 60,322-53,482 Arizona 96, , , , ,941 California 209,788 1,825,838 1,154,324 1,616, ,537 Colorado 32, , , , ,062 Idaho 232, , , , ,077 Montana 108,248 1,537,640 1,177,942 1,429,392 1,069,694 Nevada 164, , ,261 80,753 40,999 New Mexico 115,352 1,763,024 1,081,507 1,647, ,156 Oregon 127, , , , ,074 Utah 75, , , , ,668 Washington 58, , , , ,679 Wyoming 55, , , , ,641 Total 1,769,629 9,883,590 7,077,674 8,113,961 5,308, Western Burning Deficit Mean Fire Hectares / Year Max Total FRI Hectares / Year Min Total FRI Max Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Hectares / Year Min Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Alaska 493, , ,037 60,322-53,482 Arizona 96, , , , ,941 California 209,788 1,825,838 1,154,324 1,616, ,537 Colorado 32, , , , ,062 Idaho 232, , , , ,077 Montana 108,248 1,537,640 1,177,942 1,429,392 1,069,694 Nevada 164, , ,261 80,753 40,999 New Mexico 115,352 1,763,024 1,081,507 1,647, ,156 Oregon 127, , , , ,074 Utah 75, , , , ,668 Washington 58, , , , ,679 Wyoming 55, , , , ,641 Total 1,769,629 9,883,590 7,077,674 8,113,961 5,308,045 16

17 2015 Western Burning Deficit Mean Fire Hectares / Year Max Total FRI Hectares / Year Min Total FRI Max Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Hectares / Year Min Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Alaska 493, , ,037 60,322-53,482 Arizona 96, , , , ,941 California 209,788 1,825,838 1,154,324 1,616, ,537 Colorado 32, , , , ,062 Idaho 232, , , , ,077 Montana 108,248 1,537,640 1,177,942 1,429,392 1,069,694 Nevada 164, , ,261 80,753 40,999 New Mexico 115,352 1,763,024 1,081,507 1,647, ,156 Oregon 127, , , , ,074 Utah 75, , , , ,668 Washington 58, , , , ,679 Wyoming 55, , , , ,641 Total 1,769,629 9,883,590 7,077,674 8,113,961 5,308, Western Burning Deficit Mean Fire Hectares / Year Max Total FRI Hectares / Year Min Total FRI Max Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Hectares / Year Min Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Alaska 493, , ,037 60,322-53,482 Arizona 96, , , , ,941 California 209,788 1,825,838 1,154,324 1,616, ,537 Colorado 32, , , , ,062 Idaho 232, , , , ,077 Montana 108,248 1,537,640 1,177,942 1,429,392 1,069,694 Nevada 164, , ,261 80,753 40,999 New Mexico 115,352 1,763,024 1,081,507 1,647, ,156 Oregon 127, , , , ,074 Utah 75, , , , ,668 Washington 58, , , , ,679 Wyoming 55, , , , ,641 Total 1,769,629 9,883,590 7,077,674 8,113,961 5,308,045 Mean Fire Return Interval 17

18 2015 Western Burning Deficit million hectares/year sustain regimes 1.8 million hectares/year average burned million hectares/ year annual burning deficit 2015 Western Burning Deficit million acres/year sustain regimes 4.4 million acres/year average burned million acres/year annual burning deficit The map represents the estimated wildfire frequency for the period , according to research by Daniel Dey, Richard Guyette, and Michael Stambaugh 18

19 Mean Fire Area / Max Total FRI Min Total FRI Max Deficit Min Deficit Area State Abbrev Year Area / Year Area / Year Area / Year / Year Alabama AL 15,634 3,060, ,728 3,044, ,094 Alaska AK 493, , ,037 60,322-53,482 Arizona AZ 96, , , , ,941 Arkansas AR 8,799 4,335, ,479 4,326, ,679 California CA 209,788 1,825,838 1,154,324 1,616, ,537 Colorado CO 32, , , , ,062 Connecticut CT ,455 11,828 25,256 11,629 Delaware DE 88 76,683 16,561 76,596 16,473 Florida FL 75,935 5,689,264 1,201,262 5,613,329 1,125,326 Georgia GA 28,694 5,673,562 1,253,461 5,644,868 1,224,767 Hawaii HI 2,545 19,908 15,599 17,363 13,054 Idaho ID 232, , , , ,077 Illinois IL , , , ,051 Indiana IN , , , ,444 Iowa IA , , , ,544 Kansas KS 15,250 2,512, ,985 2,497, ,735 Kentucky KY 17,553 2,387, ,714 2,370, ,161 Louisiana LA 11,110 2,877, ,920 2,866, ,811 Maine ME ,600 20,869 38,165 20,435 Maryland MD 1, , , , ,280 Massachusetts MA 91 70,870 22,212 70,779 22,122 Michigan MI 2, , , , ,807 Minnesota MN 21, , , , ,569 Mississippi MS 19,674 1,759, ,109 1,739, ,435 Missouri MO 7,741 4,326, ,174 4,319, ,433 Montana MT 108,248 1,537,640 1,177,942 1,429,392 1,069,694 Nebraska NE 23,497 2,134, ,290 2,111, ,793 Nevada NV 164, , ,261 80,753 40,999 New Hampshire NH 59 15,431 9,625 15,372 9,567 New Jersey NJ 2, ,852 88, ,652 85,910 New Mexico NM 115,352 1,763,024 1,081,507 1,647, ,156 New York NY 1, ,931 53, ,395 52,322 North Carolina NC 13,002 3,731, ,775 3,718, ,773 North Dakota ND 7, , , , ,364 Ohio OH , , , ,095 Oklahoma OK 51,666 5,898,443 1,380,014 5,846,777 1,328,348 Oregon OR 127, , , , ,074 Pennsylvania PA , , , ,020 Rhode Island RI 5 24,121 5,702 24,116 5,697 South Carolina SC 9,642 3,034, ,243 3,024, ,601 South Dakota SD 29,118 1,255, ,799 1,225, ,682 Tennessee TN 8,512 2,195, ,773 2,186, ,261 Texas TX 169,235 14,778,667 4,266,039 14,609,433 4,096,805 Utah UT 75, , , , ,668 Vermont VT 19 5,972 4,739 5,953 4,720 Virginia VA 5,971 2,207, ,356 2,201, ,385 Washington WA 58, , , , ,679 West Virginia WV 10, , , , ,364 Wisconsin WI 1,531 1,255, ,830 1,254, ,300 Wyoming WY 55, , , , ,641 District of Columbia DC Total 2,335,275 86,563,282 28,092,175 84,228,007 25,756,901 9/29/2016 CAPTION: Mean Fire Return Interval data for Washington and Georgia. Note that the short fire return interval frequencies in Georgia would lead us to expect far larger areas burned each year if fires were occurring at these intervals Mean Fire Return Interval 10 hectare plots 1 Year 2 Years 5 Years = = = Mean Area Burned Each Year = 17 Hectares 2015 US Burning Deficit WA Mean Fire Hectares / Year Max Total FRI Hectares / Year Min Total FRI Hectares / Year Max Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Min Fire Deficit Hectares / Year WV 10, , , , ,364 WI 1,531 1,255, ,830 1,254, ,300 WY 55, , , , ,641 DC Total 2,335,275 86,563,282 28,092,175 84,228,007 25,756,901 19

20 2015 US Burning Deficit million acres/year sustain regimes 5.8 million acres/year average burned million acres/year annual burning deficit Annual Average = 39 million 20

21 So What 21

22 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 200 million acres are in the WUI 22

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24 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) Forest Service is treating about 2 million acres a year We can t cut our way out of this! 24

25 We can t afford to keep fighting all the big fires in the backcountry Fighting fire is hard on people and ecosystems The Twisp River is turned a deep red after an aerial drop of fire retardant landed in the river as a fire flared up near Twisp, Wash. We need to reintroduce millions of acres of wildfire every year 25

26 However, people are building further into the forests 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 200 million acres are in the WUI We only treat about 2 million per year 26

27 Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado Springs, June 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado Springs, June

28 Flagstaff Fire, Boulder Colorado, June 2012 Flagstaff Fire, Boulder Colorado, June 2012 Flagstaff Fire, Boulder Colorado, June

29 Boulder Colorado Colorado Springs 29

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32 Boulder Colorado WUI 32

33 Total Western Lands in WUI and in WUI Buffers Total WUI, hectares 9,324,730, acres 23,041,909 Buffer hectares 4,749,570, acres 11,736, million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 200 million acres are in the WUI 33

34 9/29/ million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 200 Million acres are in the WUI 11.7 Million acres in ¼ mile buffers We need to start focusing on making communities more resilient That is where mechanical thinning makes the most sense 34

35 That is where we can build up our markets and capacity 20 th century fire fighting careers We need new career opportunities for front country fuels management 35

36 We need new careers in backcountry fire monitoring Wildfire by Monte Dolack 36