American Hardwoods Around the Globe. Michael Snow

Transcription

1 American Hardwoods Around the Globe Michael Snow American Hardwood Export Council May 2014

2 AHEC s Global Reach Washington, DC London S Spain Germany Italy India Korea Osaka Mexico City Singapore Hong Kong Brazil

3 Top Three Challenges for American Hardwoods: 1) Find New Markets for Grade Lumber 2) Find New Applications 1) Capitalize on Green Credentials

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5 Hardwood Consumption % Grade Lumber Pallet Lumber, Cants, Board Road/Mat Timbers, and Ties 59.7% 2013 Hardwood Market Report Industrial Products: 4.65B Bd. Ft. Grade Lumber: 6.9B Bd. Ft. Total: 11.55B Bd. Ft.

6 2013 Hardwood Consumption 60.5% Grade Lumber 39.5% Pallet Lumber, Cants, Board Road/Mat Timbers, and Ties 2013 Hardwood Market Report Industrial Products: 4.827B Bd. Ft. Grade Lumber: 3.146B Bd. Ft. Total: 7.973B Bd. Ft.

7 Middle Class Outside the U.S. Expected to Double By 2020 Approaching 1 Billion Households Worldwide commodity consumption will be impacted Foreign households w/real PPP incomes greater than $20,000 a year (in millions of households) Middle class in developing countries projected to increase 138% by 2020 vs. just 15% in developed countries in Developing countries 200 Developed countries (ex US) Source: Global Insight s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA 7

8 Middle Class in Developing Countries Could Reach 616 Million Households By 2020, Up 138% From 2009 Levels 25% of households in these countries are middle class. By 2020, this could increase to 49% and the impact on food consumption will be large Developing countries with fastest growing middle class China India Brazil Indonesia Russia Egypt Thailand Mexico Turkey Vietnam Philippines Iran Poland Nigeria Households with real PPP incomes greater than $20,000 (in millions) levels Proj gains by 2020 Source: Global Insight s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA 8

9 Source: Global Trade Atlas

10 Source: Global Trade Atlas & FAO Forstat

11 Source: Global Trade Atlas

12 1,500 China s Impact on US Exports Million Board Feet 1,250 1, With China Without China Source: Hardwood Review

13 US Exports of Hardwood Lumber to China China's Growing Middle and Upper Classes Consuming US Hardwoods 500 Million Board Feet US Furniture Manufacturing Shift to China and US Housing Boom % US Housing Bust and Worldwide Economic Turmoil % A n n u a l i z e d Jan - July 2013 Source: USDA FAS Graph: HMR Executive

14 China Furniture Production and Exports $140 $120 Billion US$ $100 $80 $60 Production Exports $40 $20 $ Source: Hardwood Review /China National Furniture Association

15 The AHEC19 th Southeast Asia & Greater China Convention (June 25-26, Tianjin PRC) AHEC 18th convention gathered 750 delegates from 13 countries. Over 30 AHEC members attended the networking luncheon to meet with regional buyers and received market updates from 7 association executives. Over 40 media attended the convention press conference that yield over 100 clippings.

16 Source: USDA GATS

17 Main Timber suppliers to VN in 12 Other 19% Laos 24% Brazil 2% Myanmar 3% Cambodia 4% New Zealand 6% United States of America 12% Source: MoIT Analyzed by HAWA Thailand 6% Cameroon 6% Malaysia 7% China 11% 17

18 Furniture Design Competitions

19 Source: USDA GATS

20 Source: USDA GATS

21 New Markets: Middle East (Dubai 1990)

22 New Markets: Dubai (2007)

23 Dubai 2010

24 Source: USDA GATS

25 Eurostat construction production index for the E Member States = 100) Monthly for the period January 2008 to August 2013 Long term decline in EU construction Total value of construction across the EU in August 2013 was 10% lower than in 2010 and 25% down on Source: Eurostat

26 Early signs of economic recovery GDP in 2 nd Qtr of 2013 compared to 1 st Qtr EU as whole: +0.4% Gains in Germany (+0.7%), the UK (+0.7%) & France (+0.5%) GDP fell but at a slower pace in Italy (-0.2%) and Spain (-0.1%) Source: Eurostat

27 Improvement in economic sentiment Index rising strongly and above average in Germany and the UK Rising, but still below average in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain Eurostat index based on monthly survey of expectations in five surveyed sectors (industry, services, retail trade, construction and consumers). Index > 100 above average sentiment, index < 100 below average sentiment

28 Finding New Market Segments in Mature Markets: 1) Exterior Uses for American Hardwoods 2) Structural Uses Research and Testing for New Applications and Technologies

29 External joinery

30 Infinity Bench Designed by Martino Gamper Heat treated American red oak, ash, soft maple, yellow birch & tulipwood

31 Heat treatment Class 1 durability Improves stability Changes appearance Better U values tulipwood red oak soft maple yellow birch ash

32 Museum of European and Mediterranean Civilisations in Marseille

33 Heat treated tulipwood cladding a commercial reality

34 Window of opportunity American tulipwo

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36 Structural Design

37 Structural Design in American Hardwoods 5 US Species Accepted into EU Building Codes following AHEC- Funded Strength Testing

38 The Timber Wave 2011

39 First ever production of hardwood cross-laminated timber (CLT)

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42 Endless Stair adding a new dimension to timber in construction

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44 Bending Strength red oak white oak 40 tulipwood ash 20 softwood Density

45 Density Strength Stiffness Softwood Tulipwood

46 The aesthetic benefit of tulipwood

47 Murray Grove, London Waugh Thistleton Architects 9 storey timber building Cross laminated lumber Completed carpenters assembled structure on-site at a rate of 1 storey a week Building weighs 300 tonnes ¼ weight of equivalent concrete building Saves 306 tonnes of carbon to a comparable steel and concrete tower, with 183 tonnes locked into the timber.

48 Unprecedented media coverage

49 Top Three Challenges for American Hardwoods: 1) Find New Markets for Graded Lumber 2) Find New Applications 1) Capitalize on Green Credentials

50 We must do more to win the green argument *Wood is renewable *Wood is sustainably grown *Forests absorb carbon *Wood is a low impact product *Wood stores carbon

51 US hardwood is under-utilised 51

52 there is growing concern that the US hardwood resource is now being severely underutilized

53 AP Wire/BBC News, February 23, 2014: A new global monitoring system has been launched that promises "near real time" information on deforestation around the world. Forest campaigners say this is the equivalent of 50 football fields of trees being cut down, every minute of every day over the past 12 years.

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58 Derived from PE/AHEC ireport

59 Wood: The Substitution Effect

60 Out Of The Woods Environmental Profiling

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62 Endless Stair LCA data collection AHEC lumber study data & modelling

63 Endless Stair LCA data collection AHEC lumber study data & modelling Project specific data derived from project partners & collated by PE

64 Endless Stair LCA data collection & modelling AHEC lumber study data Transport distances and modes using actual data from project partners where possible Project specific data derived from project partners & collated by PE

65 Endless Stair LCA data collection & modelling AHEC lumber study data Transport distances and modes using actual data from project partners where possible Project specific data derived from project partners & collated by PE PE Gabi database provides industry average data where

66 Acidification Potential 172 kg SO 2 equivalent Eutrophication Potential 24 kg Phosphate equivalent Global Warming Potential 13 tonnes CO 2 equivalent Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential 47 kg Ethene equivalent Total Primary Energy Demand from non-renewables 161 GJ Total Primary Energy Demand from renewables & non-renewables 1087 GJ

67 Building Information Modelling One system integrating: 3-D CAD Cost data LCA data All building life cycle stages - building, use & decommissioning Standardised data requirements and decision-making processes Shared knowledge resource for clients, designers and contractors

68 LEED: A Step in the Right Direction Increased Reliance on LCA Responsible Extraction credit highlights uneven treatment of wood/other extractive industries

69 Architects Journal March 2013

70 EUTR Main Elements Divides EU companies into 2 types Operators first place timber & timber products on the EU market Includes forestry operators in the EU and importers Prohibition on placing of illegal timber on market Due diligence system Company system or through Monitoring Organisation Assess and mitigate risk of illegality in country of harvest Traders are EU merchants/retailers buying timber already placed on the market Traceability obligation One up one down - from whom timber bought/to whom timber sold 70

71 EUTR requirements for due diligence system Operators must have "access to information" on species, product type, quantity and place of harvest Place of harvest = country of harvest if risk profile does not vary between regions or forest management units Satisfied for US hardwoods through: Shippers invoice - describes goods, value and identifies exporter. Phytosanitary certificates for most shipments - exporter's name, statement of U.S. origin, species scientific name, shipment quantity. Operators must have access to documents or other information indicating [legal] compliance" Satisfied for US hardwoods by Seneca Creek study - independent peer reviewed risk assessment demonstrating negligible risk of any US hardwood being illegally sourced 04/06/2014 AHEC Convention Budapest

72 Consignment-based American Hardwood Environmental Profile (AHEP) 72

73 Will EUTR lead to decline in tropical timber imports? US hardwood rising share?? Long term decline in tropical imports continues Tropical imports have been particularly volatile in Imports from 04/06/2014 Cameroon declined sharply in April but AHEC Convention rebounded Budapest 2013 in May. 73

74 Source: FII Ltd drawing on Eurostat

75 Will EUTR lead to diversion of trade to EU Member States with weak sanctions? Very High Risk countries have Corruption Perceptions Index of less than 30% & certified/ legally verified forest area of less than 10%. The EU imported 275 million of timber from these 04/06/2014 AHEC Convention Budapest

76 Will EUTR lead to diversion of trade to EU Member States with weak sanctions? No clear evidence yet of switching of high risk imports to other EU Member States...unless Belgium is seen as a soft touch Very High Risk countries have Corruption Perceptions Index of less than 30% & certified/ legally verified forest area of less than 10%. The EU imported 275 million of timber from these 04/06/2014 AHEC Convention Budapest

77 Will EUTR lead to decline in EU imports Possible in plywood, flooring & furniture sector due to complexity & opacity of supply chain Search for replacements to PNG bintangor & Russian hardwoods Further encouraging shift from Russian oak to US oak in furniture & flooring supplied to EU Chinese manufacturers encouraged to cut out traders & buy direct from China? EU27 monthly imports of product from China 04/06/2014 AHEC Convention Budapest

78 Source: Global Trade Atlas

79 Will EUTR lead to substitution of wood products for non-wood products? Some switching to plastic?? Slow decline in wood furniture imports But imports of metal furniture have also declined so wood s share has been quite stable 04/06/2014 AHEC Convention Budapest

80 Questions?