From Technology Evolution to the Green Revolution. The Transformation Towards A More Reliable and Resilient Grid

Transcription

1 From Technology Evolution to the Green Revolution. The Transformation Towards A More Reliable and Resilient Grid i-pcgrid 2018 Bill Chiu Southern California Edison March 29, 2018 San Francisco, CA 0

2 Overview of SCE System Peak 23,508 MW (Aug. 30, 2017) T&D Grid 900 Substations Renewable Energy Resources 1,200 MW of DR deployed NEM applications: /month ,000/month 15 million people 50,000 sq. miles 5 million meters 4,600 distribution circuits 725,000 transformers 1.4 million power poles 103,000 miles of power lines 2016: 70,000 PEVs 2020: 300,000 PEVs Energy storage mandate: 580 MW procured by 2020, installed by 2024 Currently at 400 MW of energy storage capacity 1

3 The Most Significant Engineering Achievements of the 20th Century 1. Electrification 2. Automobile 3. Airplane 4. Water Supply and Distribution 5. Electronics 6. Radio and Television 7. Agricultural Mechanization 8. Computers 9. Telephone 10. Air Cond. & Refrigeration 11. Highways 12. Spacecraft 13. Internet 14. Imaging 15. Household Appliances 16. Health Technologies 17. Petrochemical Technologies 18. Laser and Fiber Optics 19. Nuclear Technologies 20. High-performance Materials 2

4 Chronology of Electric Power Industry Advancements First half of 20 th century saws some significant breakthrough 1900 s steam generator 1910 s vacuum light bulb, 115kV transmission 1920 s wind powered generators; first US geothermal power production well ( 27) 1930 s Hoover Dam ( 35) 1950 s 345kV transmission, first nuclear power station ( 53) The 60 s, 70 s through the 80 s 765kV, HVDC systems, FACTs, GIS exploratory stage of the renewable energy such as the solar thermal technology The 90 s - Emergence of the PC technology protection, controls, & monitoring technology Changes in changed the competitive landscape curtailment in capital expenditures recovery of stranded-cost 3

5 The Brewing of the Perfect Storm & Policy Implications 4

6 The Brewing of the Perfect Storm Historical Oil Prices Jan to Jul., Dollars per Barrel "We will harness the sun and Source: the Energy winds Inforamtion Administration, and U.S. DOE the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. - US President Obama, Inaugural speech, Year

7 Regulatory and Legislative Policy Energy Independence and Security Act (2007) Title XIII Establishes a national policy for grid modernization Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008: Includes an energy tax provision ARRA of 2009 funding for smart grid, EVs, electrical infrastructure AB 32 Global Warming Solutions Act (2006) Executive Order S 3 05 by 2010, reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels by 2020, reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels; by 2030, reduce GHG emission to 40% below 1990 level; by 2050, reduce GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels; SB 1078/SB 107/SB 350: RPS of 20% by 2010; 33% by 2020; 50% by 2030 Zero Net Energy Residential by 2020 Commercial by

8 California Energy Policy Goals & Mandates 7

9 California s Pace of GHG Emission Reductions Must Accelerate CA Statewide GHG Emissions (Million Metric Tones CO2 equivalent) In order to decrease greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 (below 1990 levels), dramatic steps must be taken. 8

10 California GHG Emissions 9

11 WA: 15% 2020* OR: 50% 2040* CA: 50% 2030 Renewable Portfolio Standards Policies 29 States + Washington DC + 3 territories have a Renewable Portfolio Standard (8 states and 1 territories have renewable portfolio goals) NV: 25% 2025* UT: 20% x 2025* AZ: 15% 2025* MT: 15% 2015 CO: 30% 2020 (IOUs) * NM: 20% 2020 (IOUs) ND: 10% 2015 SD: 10% 2015 KS: 20% 2020 OK: 15% 2015 MN:26.5% 2025 (IOUs) 31.5% 2020 (Xcel) WI: 10% 2015 IA: 105 MW MO:15% 2021 IL: 25% 2026 MI: 10% x 2015* IN: OH: 12.5% 10% x x NY:50% 2030 VA: 15% x 2025 DC NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs) SC: 2% 2021 ME: 40% x 2017 NH: 24.8%x 2025 VT: 75% x 2032 MA: 15% x 2020(new resources) 6.03% x 2016 (existing resources) RI: 38.5% x 2035 CT: 27% x 2020 NJ: 20.38% RE x % solar by 2027 PA: 18% x 2021 DE: 25% x 2026* MD: 20% x 2022 DC: 20% x 2020 TX: 5,880 MW x 2015* HI: 100% x 2045 Renewable portfolio standard Renewable portfolio goal Source: / August 2016 NMI: 20% x 2016 U.S. Territories Guam: 25% x 2035 PR: 20% x 2035 USVI: 30% x 2025 * Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables Includes non-renewable alternative resources 10

12 U.S. Renewable Resources Technical Potential Solar PV/CSP) Wind Geothermal Water Power Biopower Current Demand 155,000 GW (PV) 38,000GW (CSP) 11,000 GW (onshore) 4,200 GW (offshore to 50 nm) 38 GW (convention al) 4,000 GW (EGS) 68 GW 62 GW Total US generatio n capacity ~1,000,00 0 MW Total World Generatio n capacity ~4,000,00 0 MW Renewable Energy Technology Resource Maps and Technical Potential for the United States Updated July Technical potential sources and assumptions are listed in the slide notes.

13 Electricity Energy Supply Comparison (YE 2016) Others Petro Large Hydro Coal Renewables 3 41% 0% 6.00% 0% 28% 15% 0% 10% 4% 24% 2% 9% 1% 0% 11% 28% 18% Nuclear Natural Gas 4 6% 19% 37% 40% SCE California U.S. Note: 1. Others include a mix of resources from the grid that cannot be easily traced to the source 2. Large Hydro includes pump storage Source of Data: SCE & California: US: 12

14 Renewables Integration Challenges & Opportunities Real-time voltage volatility associated with intermittency of renewable energy Dynamic ramping of generation resources Increase transmission capacity to integrate more bulk renewable energy resources Energy Conservation & Energy Efficiency Energy Storage with Smart Inverter ability to provide Voltage/VAR/frequency support 13

15 Challenges of Opportunities for A Safer, More Reliable/Resilient Grid 14

16 Reliability vs. Resiliency The National Infrastructure Advisory Council on Resiliency the ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events. The effectiveness of a resilient infrastructure or enterprise depends upon its ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event. NATF s reference for Reliability vs. Resiliency RELIABILITY - defined as the ability of the system and its components to withstand instability, uncontrolled events, and cascading failures, during normal operation and routine (i.e., reasonably expected) events. RESILIENCY - defined as the ability of the system and its components (i.e., both the equipment and human components) to minimize damage and improve recovery from non-routine disruptions, including high impact, low frequency (HILF) events, in a reasonable amount of time. Inconvenience vs. mass human suffering and loss of lives 15

17 NERC Reliability Leadership Summit High Risk Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities Changing Resource Mix BPS Planning Resource Adequacy Moderate Risk Loss of Situational Awareness Extreme Natural Events Physical Security Vulnerabilities Perspective on Grid Risks Lower Risk Asset Management and Maintenance Human Performance and Skilled Workforce 16

18 Resiliency Considerations Source: ASME Engineering Resilience Quantification and System Design Implications: A Literature Survey 17

19 External Hazards Natural Phenomenon the New Normal extreme weather events torrential rain/wind storms wildfires, earthquakes space weather events Man Made Physical & Cyber security EMP 18

20 Resiliency Considerations from a Grid Perspective Prevention Detection Response Recovery Collaborative partnership between industry stakeholders to work toward creative system hardening/engineering solutions System design requirements that provide the operational flexibility and agility for rapid deployment and ability to change dynamically Equipment Hardening & Sparing Programs Participation in shaping the regulatory & policy conversations 19

21 Grand Challenges for Engineering in the 21st Century Develop Carbon Sequestration Method Make Solar Power Economical Restore and Improve Urban Infrastructure Advance Personal Learning Provide Access to Clean Water Prevent Nuclear Terror Manage the Nitrogen Cycle Advance Health Informatics Provide Energy From Fusion Secure Cyber Space Engineer the Tools of Scientific Discovery Engineer Better Medicine Reverse-engineer the Brain Enhance Virtual Reality Source: 20

22 Grand Challenge for i-pcgrid Line-side hazard Load-side hazard 21

23 Thank You! 22