Flax crop production and climate change : from diagnosis to solutions for the future Philippe GATE and Olivier DEUDON Arvalis, France
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1 Flax crop production and climate change : from diagnosis to solutions for the future Philippe GATE and Olivier DEUDON Arvalis, France
2 Flax crop production and climate change : from diagnosis to adaptative solutions for the future Context Material and Methods Results Impact of Climate Change on Flax Crop Production Conclusion France : a great diversity of climatic conditions Flax production, areas and physiology Data and methodology to analyze effects of Climate Change Simulations for the future Perspectives
3 France : Five distinct climatic zones Maritime climate (1) Continental climate (2) Intermediate (in the center) (3) Mediterranean climate (4) Altitude climate (mountains) (5) High Temperature : North-South gradient and altitude ; very rare near the coastlines Frost : gradient due to altitude and the distance from the sea Water ability : more favorable in the north and north-west (rainfall and soil depth) channel atlantic ocean
4 Climate conditions and production : a close link! (wheat as a reference) Yield (q/ha) Heat stress Water stress Year (harvest)
5 Flax fiber : Production zone locations and areas FR : ha (+10,5% ) 6,00 t dry matter/ha 1,25 t long fibers/ha Total production area (3 countries): ha ha à ha à ha < ha Nord : ha Pas-de-Calais : ha Seine-Maritime : ha Eure : ha Calvados : ha 84% of flax is produced in France IDF : Orne : ha ha Eure-et-Loir : 529 ha Somme : ha Oise : ha Belgique : ha 0,9 t fibres longues/ha Aisne : ha Seine-et-Marne : ha Marne : 455 ha Pays-Bas : ha 0,695 t fibres longues/ha Autres départements : 222 ha
6 Flax fiber : Production zone locations and areas FR : ha (+10,5% ) 6,00 t dry matter/ha 1,25 t long fibers/ha Total production area (3 countries) : ha ha à ha à ha < ha Historical zone : near the Channel Recent zone : inland extension Nord : ha Pas-de-Calais : ha Seine-Maritime : ha Eure : ha Calvados : ha 84% of flax is produced in France IDF : Orne : ha ha Eure-et-Loir : 529 ha Somme : ha Oise : ha Belgique : ha 0,9 t fibres longues/ha Aisne : ha Seine-et-Marne : ha Marne : 455 ha Pays-Bas : ha 0,695 t fibres longues/ha Autres départements : 222 ha
7 Flax : more sensitive to CC than wheat but greater stability Flax Wheat Flax yield : no stagnation and moderate year to year variability Geographical location of the production area Vegetative biomass VS Grain production fertilization = extremely sensitive phase to CC (ex : 2016) = asset for flax High level of crop management by farmers
8 Data and crop modelling used for analyses Climatic data Future Near future ( ) and Distant Future ( ) 2 emission scenarios : pessimistic and intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 8.5 and 4.5, from IPCC, 2014) RCP 8.5 = pessimistic (but likely ) RCP 4.5 = intermediate (and still realistic ) Locations : different sites
9 Crop modeling used for analyses Specific agro-climatic indicators for growth and quality Avoid hot temperatures Number of days > 25 C Number <5 = very favorable conditions Optimal water availiblity Ratio between observed evapotranspiration and maximal ; soil depth representative (180 mm) > 0.9 = no limiting Sufficient duration of the development cycle Number of days from sowing days for flowering ; for maturity
10 Describing climate variability for each zone : using «boxplot» Max value third quartile (75%): the probability to obtain a higher value is lower than 25 % the probability to obtain a higher or a lower value is 50 percent 1rst quartile : the probability to meet a lower value is lower than 25% Min value the shorter the box is the more the climate is constant
11 Our future: What is most likely to happen?
12 : Heat stress from sowing to maturity Ref / Fear future, pessimistic scenario, median Marginal evolution Reference REF. RCP 8.5 Pessimistic scenario Results < > 15 remain very favorable in the historical region ; new zones?
13 Heat stress sowing to maturity : variabilty Results Ref / Fear future, / 2 scenarios Less variability when median is low VS More variability when median is high Lower variability near the coastlines VS more extreme events elsewhere Potential new interesting zones (low median, low variability)
14 : Heat stress from sowing to maturity Distant future, , pessimistic scenario Results Continental part of the current area would be affected RCP 8.5 New possible zones (Britanny ) < > 15
15 Heat stress : crucial importance of «our» emissions! Conditions would remain favorable in case of intermediate scenario Pessimistic scenario Intermediate RCP 8.5 scenario Results < > 15 Due to C02 lifetime in the atmosphere (120 years)
16 Water availability : never limiting Results Optimal Moderate limitation Severe limitation 0.9 Never limiting in the current production area regardless the year, the scenario and low variability Only detrimental in the south with a higher median and variability
17 : Cycle duration, nb of days to reach flowering Ref / Fear future, pessimistic scenario, median remain favorable in the historical region ; new zones Reference REF. RCP 8.5 Pessimistic scenario Results > <85 possibility to maintain the same number with earlier sowing dates
18 Levers to value for a better adaptation to CC Results Explore new interesting areas : further agro-meteorological simulations To extend, relocate Design new agricultural practices Earlier «spring sowing dates» to maintain the same level of risk (ex : 1st March rather than 15 March for Abbeville) Switch from spring to autumn sowing frost risk will gradually disappear Diversify varieties, phenology, combine spring/autumn sowing dates at farm + regional scale For reducing climatic hazards Create innovative varieties better tolerant to heat stress
19 Conclusion, Discussion and Perspectives Conclusion French north-western zone is and will remain unaffected by climate change Until around 2050, then different strategies should be implemented according the emission scenario. In case of intermediate scenario (still realistic) Possibility to maintain the same levels of risks and production only by using earlier sowing dates In case of pessimistic scenario, additional levers should be activated Improve tolerance to heat stress (breeding programs underway) Value new zones (North Brittany, Cotentin peninsula Normandy) Switch from spring to autumn in certain regions Collective effort to reduce emission Certainty: like plants, humans will have to adapt and wear lighter clothes to optimise perspiration. WEAR LINEN!
20 Thank you for your attention
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