BIOENERGY MARKETS AND FRAME CONDITIONS IN NORWAY

Transcription

1 BIOENERGY MARKETS AND FRAME CONDITIONS IN NORWAY Per Kristian Rørstad and Erik Trømborg Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management Norwegian University of Life Sciences AND Norwegian Center for Bioenergy Research

2 OUTLINE Bioenergy resources and energy use Bioenergy & biomass markets Potentials Frame conditions policies Conclusions

3 J P ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN NORWAY Transport Energy intensive industries Households Other consumers Other industries Pulp and paper 5 Agriculture and fishing Total: 819 PJ (end use) Source: Statistics Norway

4 Standing stock, mill m3 BIOENERGY RESOURCES FORESTS Harvest Annual increment Standing stock Source: Statistics Norway Harvest and increment, mill m3

5 MARKETS - ELECTRICITY PRICES Large industrial standard consumer 22s1 23s1 24s1 25s1 26s1 27s1 Medium sized housholds European Union - 15 Finland Germany Norway Sweden 3 European Union Finland Germany Norway Sweden Source: Eurostat

6 /GJ MARKET PRICES PELLETS & BRIQUETTES As delivered and excl. VAT and transport Pellets Briquettes El. price 28 ~ 28 /GJ (all inclusive) Source: NoBio

7 BIOENERGY RESOURCES OTHER Waste About 5% of energy is renewable/bio Land-filling ban from Jul. 29 = + 3 mill. tons/year 32 PJ Currently: 2 mill tons (2%) utilized for energy purposes About 3% is recycled Other resources Energy crops ( ) Agricultural land is only 3% of total land area Manure Aquatic resources

8 ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR 1 % 9 % 8 % 7 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 3 % 2 % Coal, coke Petroleum, gas Electricity District heating Fuel wood, black liquor, waste 1 % % Energy-intensive industry Pulp and paper Other industries Transport Other sectors Total: fossil 45%, electricity 49%, other 6% Source: Statistics Norway

9 MARKET DISTRICT HEATING SOURCES Wood Waste Fossil Electricity Other Source: Statistics Norway PJ

10 MARKET PELLETS & BRIQUETTES 1,6 1,2,8,4, Production Import Export Domestic consumption Source: NoBio PJ

11 FIREWOOD TRADE AND Q1 ELECTRICITY PRICE 2,5 2,5 2, 2 1,5 1,5 Import Export Price electricity - index 1, 1 PJ,5,5, Source: Statistics Norway

12 PULPWOOD Domestic Import Export Source: Statistics Norway m 3

13 PJ MAIN TECHNOLOGIES, PRODUCTION AND POTENTIAL New potential Current production Wood stove Pellets stove Wood based central heating - singel houses Wood based central heating Biobased based district heating Bioenergy in industries Bioenergy in forest industries Source: Trømborg et al.

14 HOW TO REALIZE THE POTENTIAL (1) Supply of raw materials How to increase harvest? Other resources Must be profitable for investors to invest in bioenergy plants High investment costs Reliable supply of raw materials Reliable demand for products Prices

15 HOW TO REALIZE THE POTENTIAL (2) Must be profitable for consumers to change behavior, i.e. energy source (and use) Increased price of alternatives to bioenergy (tax) Reduced price of bioenergy (subsidy) Investment costs (subsidy and/or new technologies) Risk and uncertainty is important for all actors and esp. producers and consumers Information Stable and predictable policies! Markets coordinate supply and demand, but if there are no supplier or consumers The market may need some help

16 GWh EFFECT OF PRICE ON BIOENERGY PRODUCTION Other bioenergy District heating Conversion Waste and internal forest industries Heat price (NOK/MWh ex VAT) Source: Trømborg et al.

17 NORWAY AND RED Estimated share of renewables in Norway is 58% Target for Norway Not set to be negotiated (with the EU) EU s formula imply an increase of 14 percentage points, i.e. a renewable share of 72% By 22 this means New (renewable) production of 115 PJ, or Reduced consumption of 158 PJ Bioenergy will/should/must be part of the solution

18 NORWEGIAN POLICY (1) Target: 5 PJ new bioenergy use by 22 A doubling form present level (but available waste is 6% of this) Less than half of potential RED commitment No sector wise targets Current policy targets the heat market Mainly investment support for district heating, water borne heating systems and pellets stoves As shown above, waste is the main source in district heating Subsidy for wood chip (for energy purposes) production More money for R&D

19 NORWEGIAN POLICY (2) Main elements of strategy plan: Compulsory waterborne heating distribution in public buildings above 5 m 2 Removal of compulsory reduction in transmission tariffs for spot electricity used for central heating Investment support for district heating and heating based on renewable energy and conversion of fossil fuel based heat production in industry Increased investment support for pellet stoves in private households Prohibition against installment and replacement of oilburners in new and existing buildings

20 NORWEGIAN POLICY (3) A move in the right direction Is this enough?

21 NORWEGIAN POLICY (3) h 12 W /k 1 re ø 8 6 Feed-in for power-production based on biomasse 26 Max Min 4 2 Source: Institute for Energy and Environment, Leipzig 26

22 NORWEGIAN POLICY (3) Trend: 1,166 year ,8 R² =, Future Historical Wood+waste Distric heating PJ

23 NORWEGIAN POLICY (3) A move in the right direction Is this enough? Targets mainly end users and producers, but not the suppliers of raw materials (harvest) Waste: better to reduce the amount R&D: don t we know enough? Look to Sweden, Denmark, Finland et al. Spend money on something we know works, not NOK bill. on CCS! The challenge is to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Norway is cursed with much fossil fuel and much (cheap) hydro power!

24 The stone age did not end due to lack of stones Kristin Halvorsen, leader of Socialist Left Party of Norway DETTE ER TITTELEN PÅ PRESENTASJONEN 24