Battling global climate change - the EU s perspective (Part I)
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1 Battling global climate change - the EU s perspective (Part I) Artur Runge-Metzger European Union
2 1. The scientific case for action
3 Europeans are also feeling the heat Europe has warmed more than the global average, with a 0.95 C increase since Temperatures in winter have increased more than in summer. The warming has been greatest in the most northern latitudes and the Iberian Peninsula. From 1990 to 2100, the global average temperature is projected to increase by C and C for Europe.
4 Climate Change is happening and accelerating Temperature in Europe Source: Stott et al. 2004
5 Significant economic losses today Flooding in Europe caused around 15 billion of economic damages in 2002 Between 10 to 17 billion economic cost of heat wave in Europe 2003 plus around premature deaths Heatwave in India 2002 took more than 1000 lifes, rainfall deficit of 19% caused drop in GDP by 3% Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (all in 2005) more than 150 billion Australia drought in 2002 cut farm output by 30% and shaved 1.6% off GDP
6 The EU s level of aspiration 2 C Source: IPCC 2001
7 Reasons for concern for everybody Sea Ice -9%/dec. Hurricanes 2004 & 05: $350 bn Himalaya glaciers retreat Amazon drought 2005 Severe drought in month drought in 2006 Source: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
8 The probability to reach the 2 C target
9 Cost of Inaction will be overwhelming (global) Source: Stern Review 2006
10 2. What global emission reductions are required?
11 The EUs share of global emissions Figure 1: Projected development of greenhouse gas emissions in different regions of the world 80 Gigatonnes CO2 equivalents Rest of World Other annex 1 EU Source: Greenhouse gas reduction pathways in the UNFCCC process up to 2025, CNRS/LEPII-EPE, RIVM/MNP, ICCS-NTUA, CES-KUL (2003).
12 Global & Annex I GHG emissions Source: Malte Meinshausen 2006
13 Any Delay increases future reductions Delaying action for a decade, or even just years, is not a serious option Sir David King (Science, 9 January 2004) Source: Malte Meinshausen 2006
14 The Scale of the Challenge Global emissions should peak within the next two decades. Delays increase reduction rates dramatically afterwards Global emissions have to decline between 15 and 50% compared to 1990 by 2050: At the high end (around 50% reduction) this gives us a good chance of reaching the 2 C objective At the low end (15% to 25% reduction) this gives a low to moderate chance of reaching the 2 C objective Land use and forestry CO 2 emissions need to decrease sharply, the required Kyoto-gas reductions by 2050 increase with 10% if they do not
15 It can be done... Cumulative global reduction potentials by 2100 Energy efficiency Wind/solar Biomass Nuclear Non-CO2 Sinks CCS Fuel switch Other renewables Low High Total around GtC Compare: total required around 1200 GtC (for stabilisation at 450 ppm CO 2 eq.) Source: Van Vuuren/Kram, MNP
16 Strong emission reduction policy can be consistent with economic growth and development (450 CO 2 eq. path) World GDP relative to GDP base GDP 450e Source: European Commission
17 Conclusions Climate Change is real and accelarating impacts are already felt all over the world Dangerous large scale impacts beyond 2 C Urgent need for joint global efforts to reduce GHG emissions in all major economies Broad portfolio of reduction potentials exists and can be realised already today Ambitious actions are compatible with economic and social development inactionisnot
18 europa.eu.int/ comm/environment/ climat/home_en. /home_en.htmhtm
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