How do we meet current and future water needs? Niklas Christensen, PE Watershed Professionals Network

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1 How do we meet current and future water needs? Niklas Christensen, PE Watershed Professionals Network

2 Objectives of Basin Study Analyze water supply and demand, include climate change Analyze how existing operations will perform, how demands will be met Develop options to address water imbalances Analyze effectiveness, cost, environmental impact, risk, stakeholder response, and other attributes of identified options

3 Precipitation in the Deschutes Basin Deschutes Basin Distribution of Precipitation Over 80 inches 10 inches

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5 Distribution of Water Rights * Agriculture Municipal & Industrial 5% 1% 4% Resorts Instream 90% all figures in acres of beneficial use equivalents

6 Eight Irrigation Districts

7 Central Oregon Reservoirs 7 Bureau of Reclamation Teacup Diagram

8 Impacts of Storage and Diversions 8 Current Summer Flow Current Winter Flow Deschutes River

9 Upper Deschutes Low Winter Flows Upper Deschutes High Summer Flows

10 10 Who needs more water?

11 Who needs more water? 11 Estimated Supply Shortfall (2006 DWA Studies to 2025) 75% 25% instream out of stream

12 Basin Study - Overview Storage Assessment Existing Future Historic Climate Climate Change Models Reservoir Optimization Water Use Water Rights Groundwater/Surface Water Model Water Cons Assessment Inflow Forecasting Other Water Resource Alternatives Water Resource Model Impacts BSWG Workshop Multi-Criteria Evaluation Policy, Legal, Socio- Economic BSWG Workshop Middle D Crooked BSWG Workshop Develop Scenarios Upper D Whychus Recommendations and Implementation Plan

13 Deschutes Assessment IFIM Study of: 1. Oregon Spotted Frog 2. Redband Trout 3. Riparian Conditions

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15 Deschutes Assessment: HSC

16 Deschutes Assessment: AWS

17 Deschutes Assessment

18 Basin Study - Overview Storage Assessment Existing Future Historic Climate Climate Change Models Reservoir Optimization Water Use Water Rights Groundwater/Surface Water Model Water Cons Assessment Inflow Forecasting Other Water Resource Alternatives Water Resource Model Impacts BSWG Workshop Multi-Criteria Evaluation Policy, Legal, Socio- Economic BSWG Workshop Middle D Crooked BSWG Workshop Develop Scenarios Upper D Whychus Recommendations and Implementation Plan

19 Water Conservation Assessment 350, ,000 Preliminary Information Acre-Feet 250, , ,000 Annual Water Diverted Annual On-Farm Delivery Annual On-Farm Use 100,000 50,000 0 Arnold Central Lone Pine North Unit Ochoco Swalley Three Sisters Tumalo Irrigation Districts

20 Water Conservation Assessment Conveyance loss: - Seepage measurements and design - CFS and $$ On-farm loss: - Sprinkler/crop/soil/climate - CFS and $$

21 Water Conservation Assessment Application Type (%) - NUID 2% 8% Graded Furrow 25% Impact Sprinklers Pivots Big Gun Type Crop Type (acres) - NUID 65% 5,954 1,717 2,353 4,833 8,227 11,291 Wheat Alfalfa Hay Grass Seed Other Hay Irrigated Pasture 8,539 Carrot Seed 9,004 Irrigated, but Not Harvested Other

22 Basin Study - Overview Storage Assessment Existing Future Historic Climate Climate Change Models Reservoir Optimization Water Use Water Rights Groundwater/Surface Water Model Water Cons Assessment Inflow Forecasting Other Water Resource Alternatives Water Resource Model Impacts BSWG Workshop Multi-Criteria Evaluation Policy, Legal, Socio- Economic BSWG Workshop Middle D Crooked BSWG Workshop Develop Scenarios Upper D Whychus Recommendations and Implementation Plan

23 Basin Study - Overview Storage Assessment Existing Future Historic Climate Climate Change Models Reservoir Optimization Water Use Water Rights Groundwater/Surface Water Model Water Cons Assessment Inflow Forecasting Other Water Resource Alternatives Water Resource Model Impacts BSWG Workshop Multi-Criteria Evaluation Policy, Legal, Socio- Economic BSWG Workshop Middle D Crooked BSWG Workshop Develop Scenarios Upper D Whychus Recommendations and Implementation Plan

24 Stream Temperature Assessments Stream Temperature is a function of: - Solar radiation - Air temperature - Streamflow - Basin size - Latitude - Elevation - Aspect - Canopy cover - Stream slope - Glacial cover - Baseflow index

25 Stream Temperature Assessments 60 April 1 - November 1 55 Release Temp (F) Prineville Reservoir Release Temperature Surface Elevation (ft)

26 Stream Temperature Assessments Energy balance heat model of Prineville reservoir and Crooked River Source: USGS

27 Timeline June 2018 Future Contracts Signed Scenarios, Modeling and Evaluation Plan and Implementation Information and Options Generated Upper Deschutes Basin Study Complete

28 Questions?

29 Basin Study - Overview Storage Assessment Existing Future Historical Climate Climate Change Models Reservoir Optimization Water Use Water Rights Groundwater/Surface Water Model Water Cons Assessment Inflow Forecasting Other Water Resource Alternatives Water Resource Model Impacts BSWG Workshop Multi-Criteria Evaluation Policy, Legal, Socio- Economic BSWG Workshop Middle D Crooked BSWG Workshop Develop Scenarios Upper D Whychus Recommendations and Implementation Plan

30 Basin Study Work Group Central Oregon Irrigation District North Unit Irrigation District Arnold Irrigation District Swalley Irrigation District Lone Pine Irrigation District Tumalo Irrigation District Ochoco Irrigation District Three Sisters Irrigation District City of Bend Avion City of Madras City of Redmond City of LaPine City of Prineville USDA Forest Service Department of Environmental Quality US Fish and Wildlife Service Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs Deschutes County Crooked River Watershed Council Upper Deschutes Watershed Council Upper Deschutes River Coalition Central Oregon Flyfishers Deschutes River Conservancy Trout Unlimited Native Reintroduction Network Bureau of Reclamation Oregon Water Resources Department Oregon Land and Water Alliance Oregon Department of Agriculture Deschutes Soil and Water Conservation District Portland General Electric WaterWatch Deschutes Water Alliance Bend Paddle Trail Alliance