Canadian Natural Resources Limited - i - Acknowledgements Kirby In-Situ Oil Sands Project September 2007 Environmental Impact Assessment

Transcription

1 Canadian Natural Resources Limited - i - Acknowledgements Environmental Impact Assessment This Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was prepared for Canadian Natural Resources Limited (Canadian Natural) by Golder Associates Ltd. (Golder), Waterline Resources Inc. and Intrinsik Environmental Science Inc. as part of the Kirby In-Situ Oil Sands Project. Golder would like to thank Jon Gareau, among others at Canadian Natural for their assistance in providing the required source data and reviewing the material contained in this EIA. As this assessment builds on earlier assessments, Golder acknowledges the contributions of other oil sands developers in the region. The following individuals were responsible for completing this document: Project Management Wildlife and Wildlife Habitat Historical Resources Ian Mackenzie Martin Jalkotzy David Blower Susan Glover Lasha Young Michael Turney Robin Cockell Jhernelyn Parinas Vegetation, Wetlands and Forestry Resource Use Gaëlle Eizlini Darrin Nielsen Sean Maher Austin Adams Gregory Jones Administrative Support Jennifer Redondo Soil and Terrain Socio-Economics Trishia Plemel Dale Doram Sean Maher Glenda Petrie Bona Lin Susan Ross Health and Safety Biodiversity Visual Resources Jhernelyn Parinas Carol Stefan Peter Thiede Margaret Marra Water Quality CAD Bob McAlpine Air Quality Greg Frederick Jason Parviainen Koray Onder Trevor Erik Greg Unrau Fish and Fish Habitat GIS Kasey Clipperton Noise Jeff Anderson Tom Hoffman Teresa Drew Suzie Lemay Jonathan Chui Hydrology EIA Completion Team Murray Fitch Health Omid Madjidi Ann Conroy Bart Koppe Pam Poon (Intrinsik Environmental Science Inc.) Maya Akbari Air Emission Effects on Christine McFarland Evelyne Nyairo Ecological Receptors (Intrinsik Environmental Science Inc.) Jackie Kankam Tammy Rosner Nicole Stacey Social and Cultural Nadia Fatica Hydrogeology David Blower Jeff Miguel Jamie Wills Becky Balcolm Jennifer Remington (Waterline Resources Ltd.) Traditional Land Use Document Services Mitchell Goodjohn Little Rock Document Services Ltd. Helen Evans

2 Canadian Natural Resources Limited - i - Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGE 1 INTRODUCTION TO ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT PROJECT DESCRIPTION Project Components TERMS OF REFERENCE APPROVAL APPROACH AND OVERVIEW Assessment Overview Organization of the Application ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODS Overview Basic Information Requirements Environmental Impact Assessment Approach Issues Key Questions Temporal Considerations Spatial Considerations Linkage Diagrams Key Indicator Resources Effects Analyses Effects Description Criteria Certainty and Prediction Confidence Management and Monitoring DEVELOPMENTS CONSIDERED IN THE ASSESSMENT CASES REFERENCES...31 LIST OF TABLES Table Screening System for Environmental Consequences...25 Table Assessment Cases...29 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Project Location...2 Figure Project Footprint...3 Figure Linkages Among EIA Components...9 Figure Key to Using Linkage Diagrams...20 Figure Regional Developments...28

3 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment 1 INTRODUCTION TO ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 1.1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION Canadian Natural Resources Limited (Canadian Natural) has initiated the regulatory review of its proposed Kirby In-Situ Oil Sands Project (the Project). Canadian Natural provided a public disclosure for the Project in a disclosure document (Canadian Natural 2006), which was submitted to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) and Alberta Environment (AENV), distributed to stakeholders and publicly posted in newspaper notices in December The Integrated Application (the Application) for the Project is provided and includes a detailed project description; an assessment of environmental and socioeconomic effects; and the associated applications for construction, operation and closure of the Project. This Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) provides an assessment of the construction, operation and reclamation phases of the Project and examines the relationship between the Project and its potential effects on human and natural environments. These effects are assessed, ranked and, where appropriate, a determination of their environmental consequence made Project Components The Project will be located on 18 sections of land within Oil Sands Leases (OSLs) Numbers and (formerly OSL) in the Townships 73, Ranges 7 and 8, and Township 74, Range 8, West of the 4 th Meridian. (Volume 1, Figure A5.1-1, and Figures and below. The majority of the Project facilities within the oil sands leases are shown in Figure 1.1-2, which includes the Project area, footprint and key features. The Project will consist of activities pertaining to the construction, operation and reclamation of an in-situ thermal bitumen recovery project. The bitumen will be recovered with a Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) process.

4 EDWARDS LAKE ALBERTA Edmonton KIRBY PROJECT Calgary INSET MAP - Not to Scale Lethbridge IPIATIK LAKE LEGEND CUTLINE OR TRAIL ROAD WATERCOURSE KIRBY PROJECT AREA KIRBY LEASE AREA KIRBY IN-SITU OIL SANDS PROJECT PROJECT LOCATION REFERENCE Alberta Digital Data Obtained From AltaLIS Ltd. (July 2005) used under license. Projection: Transverse Mercator Datum: Nad 83 Coordinate System: Utm Zone 12 FIGURE: 1.1-1

5 B HWY 881 DISPOSAL WELL DISPOSAL WELLS P-10 P-11 B CR-1 PROPOSED ROAD & PL ROW SOURCE WELL B B B B P-9 B P-12 SOURCE WELLS PROPOSED PIPELINE ROW CAMP MSL B CR-2 B P-3 PROPOSED PIPELINE ROW B PROPOSED PIPELINE ROW P-8 B P-2 PLANT SITE MLL B B P-6 P-4 SOURCE WELL B P-1 P-5 B B P-7 LEGEND KIRBY PROJECT AREA KIRBY LEASE AREA PROPOSED ABOVE GROUND PIPELINES, ROADS AND POWER LINES ROW KIRBY IN-SITU OIL SANDS PROJECT PROPOSED WELLPAD LOCATION PROPOSED UNDERGROUND PIPELINE ROW B BORROW PIT PROJECT FOOTPRINT WATERCOURSE CROSSING REFERENCE BLACK AND WHITE IMAGERY OBTAINED FROM ALPAC, MARCH 2004, USED UNDER LICENSE. COLOUR ORTHOPHOTOS (FROM 1:20,000 PHOTOS) OBTAINED FROM THE ORTHOSHOP, OCT. 18, WO# PROJECTION : TRANSVERSE MERCATOR DATUM : NAD83 COORDINATE SYSTEM : UTM ZONE 12 FIGURE: 1.1-2

6 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment The Project has the following components: central plant site containing capacity to process 45,000 bpcd, (7,155m 3 /cd) natural gas-fired forced circulation steam generators, bitumen/water separation, water treatment facilities, supporting utility systems, produced gas handling equipment, diluent and product storage tanks including a vapour recovery unit, stormwater collection facilities and a blowdown pond, office and warehouse complex; wellpads with associated equipment; interconnecting above-ground pipelines and electrical power lines between the central plant and the wellpads; water supply and disposal wells with associated below-ground pipelines between the wells and central plant; a salt cavern for disposal of oilfield wastes; fuel gas supply pipeline; diluted bitumen product pipeline; diluent supply pipeline; electrical power supply transmission lines; access roads; borrow sites; and camp facilities. The fuel gas pipeline, diluted bitumen product pipelines diluent supply pipeline, and electrical power supply transmission lines will be applied for by third parties using appropriate approval processes and will not be discussed further in the EIA. The proposed footprint and key features of the Project are shown in Figure Details of these features are provided in Volume 1, Section B5.0. The development footprint for the Project consists of 327 ha, 69 ha of which is previously disturbed. 1.2 TERMS OF REFERENCE Alberta Environment issued the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the EIA for the Project in August A copy of the TOR is provided in, Appendix I.

7 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment The EIA has been completed to meet the TOR. Volume 1 provides information requirements for an application under the Alberta Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act (EPEA), the Alberta Oil Sands Conservation Act (OSCA) and the Alberta Water Act. A cross-reference between each of the TOR clauses and the various sections of the Application (including the EIA) is provided in, Appendix II. 1.3 APPROVAL APPROACH AND OVERVIEW Under Division 1, Section 45 of EPEA, an EIA report is required for the Project. The EIA will form a part of an integrated application made to AENV and the EUB pursuant to OSCA. The Application provides details on the Project and supporting information for additional Project approvals. The Application has also been completed to conform to the requirements of applicable federal legislation. The Application considers the requirements of the following Acts: Oil Sands Conservation Act; Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act; Water Act; Navigable Waters Protection Act; Public Lands Act; Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA); Species at Risk Act; Fisheries Act; Historical Resources Act; Transportation of Dangerous Goods Act; Migratory Birds Convention Act; and Climate Change and Emission Management Act Assessment Overview The EIA presents environmental, traditional land use, resource use, historical, environmental health and socio-economic considerations, and integrates them with the key features of the Project. As required in the TOR, the EIA will identify development activities as well as describe the assessment approach, mitigation options and effects that are relevant to the assessment of the Project.

8 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Information on Canadian Natural operations as well as the Project description are provided in Volume 1. Details of the EIA completed for the Project are provided in Volumes 2 to 6. This section details the purpose and approach for the EIA, including a description of the methods used to complete the EIA. The methods used to assess the cumulative effects of the Project are described in Section 1.4, while the developments included in the assessment cases are described in Section 1.5. This EIA builds environmental information from a variety of sources including the following: data collected during baseline studies for the Project as well as other developments in the Oil Sands Region of northeastern Alberta; data collected during baseline studies for the Rio Alto Exploration Project EIA (Rio Alto 2002); published literature on environmental assessment methods; current provincial and federal regulatory requirements; literature (published and unpublished) on environmental parameters relevant to the Project; and oil sands development EIAs and associated, public supporting data. The Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) program for the EIA is detailed in, Appendix VI Organization of the Application The Application is presented six volumes. The EIA in Volumes 2 to 6 is organized by components and development cases. Component Baseline Reports and additional reports relevant to the EIA are provided in the appendices included with the relevant volumes of the Application. The relationship of the component discussions to requirements listed in the TOR for the EIA are reviewed under each component and summarized in a TOR cross-reference table presented in, Appendix II. The Application is divided into the following volumes and sections. Volume 1 Application for Approval Application for the Project including EPEA and Water Act applications Corporate overview for Canadian Natural

9 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Project description (facilities, geology, water, air, waste management and economic evaluation) Regulatory requirements specified in legislation, land and mineral rights, development schedule Conservation and Reclamation Plan Public consultation activities undertaken by Canadian Natural Introduction and Summary of EIA: Section 1 Introduction to the EIA Section 2 EIA Summary Volume 3 Air Quality, Noise, Health and Air Emission Effects on Ecological Receptors Section 1 Air Quality Section 2 Noise Assessment Section 3 Human Health Section 4 Wildlife Health Section 5 Air Emission Effects on Ecological Receptors Volume 4 Aquatic Resources Section 1 Scope of Assessment Section 2 Hydrogeology Assessment Section 3 Hydrology Assessment Section 4 Water Quality Assessment Section 5 Fish and Fish Habitat Assessment Volume 5 Terrestrial Resources Assessments Section 1 Scope of Assessment Section 2 Soil and Terrain Assessment Section 3 Terrestrial Vegetation, Wetlands and Forest Resources Assessment

10 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Section 4 Wildlife Assessment Section 5 Biodiversity Assessment Volume 6 Social Aspects Section 1 Traditional Land Use Assessment Section 2 Resource Use Assessment Section 3 Visual Resources Assessment Section 4 Historical Resources Assessment Section 5 Socio-Economic Impact Assessment Although the baseline conditions for each of the EIA components are described separately in the appendices, there are significant interdependencies among the EIA components. These interdependencies are shown schematically in Figure 1.3-1, which shows the confluence of the outputs from the in-situ project development and operations in terms of effects on physical parameters (e.g., groundwater, surface water, air quality). These physical parameters can have an impact on components that constitute the viability or productivity of the natural ecosystem (as measured in terms of socio-economics, human health, fish and aquatic habitat, wildlife habitat and health, and plant communities).

11 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Figure Linkages Among EIA Components Project Development Project Operations Hydrogeology (groundwater) and Surface Water Hydrology Surface Water Quality Air Quality Terrain and Soils Historical Resources Terrestrial Vegetation, Wetlands and Forest Resources Wi ldlife Aquatic Resources Human Health Traditional Land Use Resource Use Socio- Economics Note: To simplify the diagram, not all linkages among components have been shown. Details on the Conservation and Reclamation (C&R) Plan are provided in Volume 1, Attachment 1. The C&R Plan constitutes one of the primary forms of mitigation for potential impacts that will be discussed in the EIA. Additional information on proposed monitoring programs associated with the Project will be noted in the applicable EIA sections. A summary of the proposed monitoring programs is found in Volume 1, Section B11.0.

12 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment 1.4 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODS Overview The EIA was completed by employing accepted techniques and in compliance with the regulatory requirements. The EIA addresses the requirements of the TOR as well as additional information to address provincial and federal regulations and issues identified by stakeholders to the Project. Stakeholders and provincial and federal regulators were provided the opportunity to review and provide input for the TOR. A cumulative effects assessment was completed to comply with the requirements detailed in the document Cumulative Effects Assessment in Environmental Impact Assessment Reports under the Alberta Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act (AENV, AEUB and NRCB 2000) and the requirements of Section 16 of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The process for completing the cumulative effects assessment included consideration of guidelines provided in the Cumulative Effects Practitioners Guide (Hegmann et al. 1999). The information included or considered in the EIA is presented below Basic Information Requirements Information Used The EIA was completed using: quantitative and qualitative information on the environmental and ecological processes in the study areas, including Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), where available, and relevant information presented in previous environmental assessments; current, publicly available information about the past, existing and planned human activities in the study areas, and the nature, size, location and duration of their potential interactions with the environment; information about ecological processes and natural forces that are expected to produce changes in environmental conditions; existing and proposed industrial developments, as well as activities associated with land use and infrastructure, to the extent information is known and available to the public at the time of this assessment; and

13 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment information on regional monitoring, research and other strategies or plans to minimize, mitigate and manage potential adverse effects. Content of Reports and Assessments Conducted The EIA and Baseline Reports include the following information for the key environmental components: Assessment Cases description of the existing conditions; identification of environmental disturbance from previous activities that have become part of existing and approved conditions; description of the nature and consequence of environmental effects associated with development activities; comments on whether available data are sufficient to assess effects and mitigative measures; presentation of plans to minimize, mitigate or eliminate adverse effects, together with a discussion of the key elements of such plans, to demonstrate that the Project will be operated in an environmentally sound manner; identification of effects and the significance of those effects; and where appropriate, presentation of plans to monitor environmental effects and manage environmental change. The EIA analysis does not assess the effects of the Project in isolation. The three assessment cases include studying the effects of existing and approved developments (Existing and Approved Case or EAC), the effects of the Project in addition to the EAC (i.e., the Project Case) and finally the effects associated with the Project Case plus planned developments (Planned Development Case or PDC). In the TOR, the EAC is referred to as the Baseline Case, and the Project Case as the Application Case. The EAC considers the existing environmental conditions plus the existing and approved developments or activities within study areas. For example, depending on the study area, this might include other oil sands developments that are currently operating or have recently been approved, forestry activities, gravel pits or other industrial developments. The reason both existing and approved activities are included is that it is critical that the potential effects of the development under assessment be measured against all currently approved developments and their associated effects.

14 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment The Project Case adds the Project to the EAC. The Project Case includes both oil sands and other regional resource development activities and is, in effect, a cumulative effects assessment for the Project. The PDC includes the Project Case developments plus other planned developments. The methods used to assess this case are the same as the Project Case. The PDC for the Project includes consideration of the following, as required by the EIA TOR. Assess and discuss the cumulative environmental effects that are likely to result from the Project in combination with other existing, approved and planned projects in the region that could reasonably be considered to have a combined effect. Explain the approach and methods used to identify and assess cumulative effects, including cooperative opportunities and initiatives undertaken to further the collective understanding of cumulative effects. Provide a record of all assumptions, confidence in data and analysis to support conclusions. A Planned Project is considered any project or activity within the Project study area that has been publicly disclosed during the time period up to six months prior to the submission of the Project application and EIA report. Provide a comprehensive summary of all proposed monitoring, research and other strategies or plans to minimize, mitigate and manage any potential adverse effects. The PDC assessment is completed when the linkage for the assessment completed under the Project Case is shown to be valid. The PDC provides a conservative assessment of social and environmental conditions because the developments included in the assessment may or may not proceed. In addition, the scope and size of the planned developments may change once designs are completed and approved. For the EIA, the information used for planned developments is based on what was available publicly as of March, Information was gathered from publicly available documents and information provided by other developers.

15 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Environmental Impact Assessment Approach The EIA is explicit in identifying issues by addressing key questions. These key questions frame the relationships between the Project and the potential environmental effects. This transparency allows reviewers to understand the rationale and assumptions used to make conclusions. The key questions are addressed in terms of spatial and temporal boundaries for the assessment. Spatial boundaries are classified into study areas that may include Local Study Areas (LSA) and Regional Study Areas (RSAs), where relevant. The LSAs are used to evaluate areas directly affected by the Project. The RSA is used to evaluate the effects of the Project in terms of the larger geographic and ecologic contexts. The purpose of the EIA is to examine the relationships between the Project and its potential effects on the human and natural environments. These relationships are revealed in the impact analyses and are defined in terms of linkage diagrams. Linkage diagrams provide a means of defining the interaction between project activities, potential environmental change and the analysis of the key questions (Section ). The analysis of this interaction allows for assessment of effects in a broader ecological context. The linkage diagram analyses may also include consideration of Key Indicator Resources (KIRs) that provide definable assessment and measurement end points for some environmental components. These KIRs are representative species and ecological communities that allow for a focused examination of the ways the Project may result in changes to the environment in terms of issues of importance to the species or communities. The environmental and social effects are assessed in terms of quantitative and qualitative effects description criteria that are defined in this section of the EIA. These criteria are based on attributes such as effect direction, magnitude, geographic extent, duration, reversibility and frequency. An important component is the degree of confidence in the data and analysis. The outcome is a rating system of the environmental consequences of the Project on specific environmental resources and social aspects. However, physical modelling components such as hydrogeology, surface water hydrology, water quality and air quality do not apply description criteria. The criteria only apply to those components that evaluate biological receptors. The Socio-Economic Impact Assessment uses a qualitative approach in determining the effects of the Project.

16 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Issues A key component of the assessment process is to identify and focus on the issues that are of greatest concern to the stakeholders and regulators. This process was initiated through evaluation of the issues and responses in recent oil sands EIAs, recent oil sands application regulatory hearings, other relevant documents and through information received during consultation with key stakeholders on the Project. Some of the key assessment issues identified include: traditional land use and environmental/ecological knowledge; social and economic benefits; wildlife and wildlife habitat; surface disturbance; vegetation diversity; air emissions and their effects on human health, wildlife and vegetation; fish and fish habitat; and water quality and quantity. Other key issues considered in association with the Project are listed below. With the exception of climate change which is addressed in a separate appendix, these and other issues relevant to the Project are addressed within the EIA component sections. Aquatic Resources groundwater withdrawals and potential effects on groundwater quality and quantity, and surface water flows and water levels; watercourse crossings; maintenance of natural drainage and flow patterns; wastewater management; runoff management; spill management; acid deposition from air emissions; effects on fish and fish habitat, including benthic invertebrate communities; and

17 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment effects of fishing pressure. Air Quality and Noise Socio-Economic emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), oxides of nitrogen (NO X ) and greenhouse gases (GHGs), as well as other industrial emissions; effects of emissions on ecological receptors; and effects of sound levels on people, wildlife and local traditional land uses. traditional use; traffic; transportation; job creation; and Terrestrial Resources Resource Use community benefits. surface disturbance; acid deposition from air emissions; wetlands; rare plants; changes in biodiversity; and reclamation. aggregate resources; forest resources; recreational resources; and visual aesthetics.

18 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Traditional Land Use Climate Change traditional activities; medicinal plants; traplines; and trail access. The Application was completed with consideration of the Federal-Provincial-Territorial-Committee on Climate Change and Environmental Assessment (FPTC 2003). This guidance document includes the following actions for environmental assessments: The initial estimation/prediction of GHG emissions for the Project. Explicit, project-specific considerations of GHG management in projects with medium to high emissions. Review of all projects at the planning stage to promote consideration of best practices for the class or sector. Review of project plans in relation to jurisdictional climate change policies or objectives. Identification of project sensitivities to climate parameters. Review of existing studies and information on climate change and the local, regional or inter/provincial/territorial changes to environmental conditions resulting from climate conditions, including trends and projections where available. The Application provides the following information with respect to consideration of climate change in the assessment: Quantification of Greenhouse Gas Emissions The predicted GHG emissions associated with the construction and operations of the Project are presented in Volume 1, Section B9.6.1, and also in Volume 3 Section Identification of Project Sensitivities to Climate Change The design, operations and closure planning for oil sands operations in northeastern Alberta consider that relatively extreme climate variables are expected to occur during the life of the Project. This includes design for operations under possible operating temperatures ranging from -40 to +35 C.

19 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment An evaluation of the historic changes in temperature and precipitation as well as the possible changes in the future was completed for the Project. The results of the evaluations showed that potential predicted changes in key climate variables are not predicted to adversely impact the planned construction, operation and closure of the Project Key Questions A key question is an explicit question that guides data collection and analysis to determine the magnitude and consequence of the effects of the potential impact on resources. Key questions have been identified for each EIA component to address the specific issues identified by the communities, stakeholders, regulators or the EIA technical team (Section ). The key questions also address issues detailed in the TOR as that document is designed to focus on the key issues associated with the Project. Although key questions are used to focus the cumulative effects assessments, issues over and above those captured in the key questions are also addressed. Key questions are provided for both the Project and PDCs where applicable. The PDC key questions are intended to focus the effects assessment on the primary cumulative effects issues associated with the Project in relation to other planned developments. Therefore, if it was determined in the Project Case that there was no linkage between the Project contribution to the effect (i.e., the linkage was broken), the assessment under the PDC may not be completed. Key questions are provided within the Scope of Assessment for each component of the EIA Temporal Considerations The temporal considerations for the EIA reflect changing conditions through time that may affect environmental components differently. The schedule for development of the major components of the Project is summarized in Volume 1, Section A6.0. The final closure of the Project is planned for about The main Project phases include construction, operation and closure. For most components, effects analyses considered construction and operations together. Construction is considered alone where it adds a large short-term change to the component under consideration (e.g., socio-economics - the influence of the construction workforce). Construction is scheduled to begin in 2009 with initial production in The Project is expected to operate for 20 years (2011 to 2031), with final reclamation to occur for three years (2032 to 2034). Progressive reclamation of the wellpads may not be possible as the first wellpad

20 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment is currently anticipated to be operational when the last wellpad is constructed. The duration of the Project from initiation of construction in 2009 through to final reclamation and closure in 2034 is 26 years. Some EIA components, particularly the terrestrial components, examine the Project under three temporal conditions: existing, full development, and closure (or full reclamation). Although there will be sequencing of both the removal and reclamation of terrestrial systems, this sequential development and reclamation process is not directly included in the assessments, which consider either that everything is undeveloped, developed or reclaimed. This is a conservative approach so effects are not under-estimated Spatial Considerations The Project is an in-situ development that will recover bitumen using a steam-based thermal process that involves a continuous steaming and recovery operation. This requires that the Project will have a plant site area that includes steam generation, water recycle and diluted bitumen handling facilities. Wellpads are linked to the plant site by above-ground pipelines. Additional details on the Project facilities are provided in Volume 1, Sections B1.0 to B12.0 of the Application. The Project area consists of the sections of the oil sands leases described in Volume 1 (Section A5.0) that encompass the proposed Project facilities as well as existing surface disturbances that will be incorporated into the Project (the Project footprint). The Project area and footprint are shown in Figure Two major study area levels have been defined for the assessment of the potential effects from the Project. The LSA includes the project footprint in the Project area, as well as additional area within which direct effects may be reasonably expected to occur. The RSA is larger than the LSA and incorporates the LSA into a larger geographical area where potential effects may occur. As described below, the actual spatial distribution of the study areas varies for different EIA components. The RSAs for the EIA are based on consideration of: delineation of an air RSA based on results from the use of the CALPUFF air model in the dynamic (3-D) mode; designation of the terrestrial RSA to ensure there is a minimum distance equal to the diameter of two moose home ranges from oil sands

21 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment developments, and to include important caribou habitat and/or natural area boundaries for major ecological areas; designation of the socio-economics RSA based on portions of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and Lakeland County; and designation of the aquatic resources RSA based on watersheds and hydrogeologic conditions applicable to the Project. The RSAs, as shown in the introduction sections for the various components, are used during assessments of effects resulting from the Project in combination with other developments. Variations to the Project RSAs depend on the specific EIA component being addressed. The changes are reviewed and additional details on the variations are made, as required, within the component discussions Linkage Diagrams Linkage diagrams are used to describe how project activities could potentially lead to environmental changes, which in turn could affect other components of the environment. Figure illustrates the general format of the linkage diagrams. Symbols on the linkage diagrams include: Project activities (oval); potential changes in the environment (rectangles); key questions (diamonds); and connections to or from a different environmental or social components (triangles).

22 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Figure Key to Using Linkage Diagrams Key Questions Project Activity Potential Change in Environment (Physical or Biological) Connection to Linkage Diagram for, or from a Different Environmental or Social Component These diagrams are used as tools to guide the impact analysis, which addresses each link on the linkage diagram. They also show how the different environmental and social components are inter-related. The potential linkages between activities and effects are evaluated to determine whether they apply to the Project. The EIA considers each link on the component Linkage Diagram, with the analyses consisting of four main steps: identification of Project activities that could contribute to environmental change; analysis of potential linkages; analysis and classification of effects; and identification and description of mitigation measures and monitoring for potential effects. When this evaluation indicates a potential change, the linkage is ruled valid for assessment. When the evaluation does not indicate a potential change, the linkage is ruled invalid for the Project and is not assessed for the EIA Key Indicator Resources KIRs are the environmental attributes or components identified as having legal, scientific, cultural, economic or aesthetic value. KIRs are used because

23 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment environmental systems include a large number of complex interconnected elements with each element contributing to the functioning as a whole. They are used as surrogates for the entire system and are chosen to represent the range of ecological activity being studied. The selection of KIRs is based on a process defined in detail by Golder (1999) and by a process that also enables stakeholder input, used by the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA 2001). The Key Indicator Priority list of 2001 was revised in 2006 to focus more on ecosystem processes (CEMA 2006). In general, KIRs were selected based on: species presence/absence and abundance as determined during baseline surveys and/or historical studies; importance as a traditional resource; representation of sport, non-sport and forage species; and species status provincially and or federally (e.g., ASRD 2001; COSEWIC 2007). The identification of KIRs is not universal throughout the EIA. Some components assess all relevant attributes (e.g., air quality looks at the effects of all relevant emissions related to the Project; the Socio-Economic Impact Assessment looks at key indicators for those social aspects that are directly affected by the Project and oil sands projects in general). For EIA components where KIRs are defined, additional information is provided on the specific KIRs selected for the Project Effects Analyses Effects analyses focus on assessment of potential changes to receptors within the environment due to the construction, operation and reclamation of the Project. Not all key questions used in the Project result in the completion of an assessment, because the answer to the question may be information on environmental change that passes to another component where the effect on a receptor is evaluated and an analysis is completed. The effects analysis includes validation of causal linkages between particular Project activities and potential environmental changes, as described earlier in Section These potential linkages between project activities and environmental change were considered for each EIA component. Where the changes in an environmental component are affected by changes in another environmental component, the linkages are represented as triangles

24 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment (Figure 1.4-1). Sub-headings are provided for each link on the linkage diagram. Within each of the sub-headings, the potential for the Project to result in an environmental change is determined and the link is classified as valid or invalid. The process of evaluating potential effects of the Project on receptors may result in the identification of opportunities for project re-design to eliminate or minimize a potential effect. This iterative process is an integral component of the project design engineering team working with those completing environmental and social assessments. Through this process, many potential effects of the Project were eliminated during the process of finalizing the design of the Project. The potential effects remaining after mitigation are referred to in the TOR as residual impacts; however the term effects is used in the EIA. Validation of each link includes consideration of mitigation measures. For certain activities, ongoing mitigation (e.g., changes in operating practices) can minimize or eliminate physical or chemical stresses, thereby rendering invalid the link between a Project activity and an environmental change. If a link between a Project activity and an environmental change is considered valid, the key question under consideration is examined. Where the environmental component has defined KIRs, the effects on each KIR are evaluated separately. Quantitative methods of assessment are used where possible. Predictive modelling is used as a tool in the air quality, hydrogeology (water supply), hydrology, water quality, fish and fish habitat, and wildlife and wildlife habitat assessments. Risk assessment techniques are used to assess effects to fish health, and to human and wildlife health. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to assess impacts on terrestrial resources and resource use. Assessment techniques, quantitative and qualitative, are described in each EIA component section Effects Description Criteria Effects are classified using quantification criteria to determine environmental consequence. Components where the potential change in a parameter results in an effect on another component do not provide an environmental consequence. For example, a change in water quality can result in an effect on fish and fish habitat. Therefore, water quality does not present an environmental consequence. Each effect is first described in terms of the following criteria: direction, magnitude, geographic extent, duration, reversibility and frequency (including seasonal effects). These criteria are defined and considered in the

25 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Canadian Environmental Assessment Act Responsible Authorities Guide (FEARO 1994). Direction of an effect may be positive, neutral or negative with respect to the key question (e.g., a habitat gain for a KIR would be classed as positive, whereas a loss in habitat would be considered negative). Magnitude describes the intensity, or severity of an effect. It is often described as the amount of change in a measurable parameter or variable relative to the Existing and Approved Case, guideline value, or other defined standard. The specific definition used to determine the magnitude rating (negligible, low, moderate or high) is defined for each component. The ratings are relative to the characteristics being investigated, the methods available to measure the effect, and the accepted practice in each component. Definitions of magnitude are unique to the characteristics of the measured parameter or variable. The criteria are defined in detail for each component in a specific section describing the assessment methods. Geographic extent is the spatial area that is affected by the Project in combination with other developments. It will generally be based on the LSAs and RSAs developed for each component, although some components have a high degree of commonality, such as aquatic resources. The choice of study area strongly influences the final classification of the effect; therefore, the size of the study area (i.e., is it too small or large) is an important consideration. The general principle followed in determining study areas follows the guidelines outlined in the Cumulative Effects Assessment Practitioners Guide (Hegmann et al. 1999). That document suggests that consideration of a zone-of-influence beyond which the effects of the action have diminished to an acceptable or trivial state (i.e., a very low probability of occurrence or acceptably small magnitude) is an acceptable approach. Duration refers to the length of time over which an environmental effect occurs. It considers the various phases of the Project, (including construction, operation and reclamation) during which the effects may occur as well as the length of time for the environmental component to recover from the disturbance. Reversibility indicates the potential for recovery of the ecological endpoint. An effect is defined as irreversible if the resource element cannot be restored to pre-impact condition within the long-term as defined under duration. Because ecosystems are dynamic, a site is considered to be restored if natural succession processes are re-established. Reversibility does not necessarily require the

26 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment establishment of a mature stage, but can be the achievement of a development stage that is capable of sustaining the pre-development successional pattern. Frequency describes how often the effect occurs within a given time period and is classified as low, medium or high in occurrence. Discussions on seasonal considerations are made when they are important in the evaluation of the effect. Criteria for direction, reversibility and frequency are the same for all environmental components. Magnitude, geographic extent and duration vary depending on the components. An environmental consequence rating system has been developed that consolidates the results of five of the criteria (i.e., magnitude, duration, frequency, geographic extent and reversibility). The purpose of assigning an environmental consequence is to provide a transparent process that consolidates the results of the criteria into one rating. The consolidation allows the effects from different components to be compared using a common rating so that areas of greatest potential concern can be identified. Direction is applied to the result of a consolidation to further indicate the type of effect that may occur (i.e., an increase or decrease in soil quality). Although a numerical system has been developed, the numbers are not an end in themselves. The intention is to use these numbers to provide a rating system that facilitates discussion and decision-making for the Project. Table shows the screening system used to estimate an environmental consequence for effects. The screening system details a numerical score for each of the parameters considered in evaluating an effect. The total is then used as a guide to assign environmental consequence of effects as follows: negligible 0 to 5 low 6 to 10 moderate 11 to 15 high greater than 15

27 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Table Screening System for Environmental Consequences Magnitude (Severity) negligible (0) low (+5) moderate (+10) high (+15) Geographic Extent local (0) regional (+1) beyond regional (+2) Duration Reversibility Frequency short-term (0) medium-term (+1) long-term (+2) yes (-3) no (+3) low (0) moderate (+1) high (+2) In some cases the level of confidence in a prediction is low such that an estimate of environmental consequence cannot be made with a sufficient degree of certainty. Undetermined ratings are accompanied by recommendations for monitoring predictions and adaptive management success. Recommended follow-up activities are detailed within the applicable EIA sections Certainty and Prediction Confidence The purpose of an EIA is to predict the future conditions of dynamic environmental and social components that are, by their very nature, continuously changing. As a result, within every EIA there is a degree of confidence (certainty or uncertainty) associated with the predictions therein. The degree of confidence in predictions is assessed for each effect predicted in the EIA. Each component uses quantitative methods such as sensitivity analyses or semi-quantitative methods to assess prediction confidence to the extent reasonable. Other sources of information, such as the conservative nature of assumptions and experience gained from other projects, are also included when available. Assumptions for statistical tests as well as details on models employed as part of the EIA are discussed within the applicable components. This information will generally be provided in the Baseline reports or appendices to the EIA. The intent of the review is to show that the data meets statistical requirements and that models employed are justified for use in the EIA. Uncertainty is also managed through use of assessment scenarios that evaluate what is often referred to as being a worst-case scenario. This conservatism is based on the fact that all developments considered in the completed assessments are assumed to be at the maximum extent in terms of surface disturbance and operational emissions. However, the vast majority of developments in the region

28 Canadian Natural Resources Limited Introduction to the EIA Environmental Impact Assessment will be operated in phases with progressive reclamation throughout the project life. Therefore, the true extent of these developments during operation and reclamation at any one time is overestimated. The application of conservative assumptions means that predicted effects will likely be greater than the observed effects in the study area Management and Monitoring Canadian Natural uses the environmental consequence ratings to define the management approaches to be implemented for the predicted environmental effect. The management for the predicted effects could include: re-engineering of systems; redesign of operational plans; enhancement of mitigation plans or processes; development of monitoring systems to enhance information on effects; or collection of additional information to reduce levels of uncertainty in the assessment. Canadian Natural views the definition of environmental consequences of Project impacts as an important step to ensure sustainability of the environment. 1.5 DEVELOPMENTS CONSIDERED IN THE ASSESSMENT CASES The assessment cases for the EIA include the EAC, Project Case and PDC. Figure shows the locations of developments included in the assessment cases, while Table lists the developments included in each case. Details on the regional developments considered in the EIA are provided in, Appendix V. The EIA considers the effects of the developments included in each of the assessment cases, and predicts changes as a result of the addition of projects. Information on the EAC is provided in Baseline Reports and the EAC sections of each of the EIA components. The data available for these developments are taken from applications, EIAs, update reports and other project-specific information that is publicly available. In addition, the potential effects of existing and approved developments are monitored through the actions of project-specific and regional monitoring programs.