World Energy Challenges

Transcription

1 World Energy Challenges by 2050: double energy demand half the emissions (-80% in OECD) electricity access for 1.4 billion energy poor globally governed risks management Christoph Frei, PhD Secretary General World Energy Council

2 World Energy Council the energy leaders forum truly global 93 countries, >3000 organisations inclusive & impartial all technologies committed to our sustainable energy future since % 38% 7% government other 25% experts business

3 World Energy Council about us TRUSTEES Pierre Gadonneix, Chairman Arup Roy Choudhury, Vice Chair, Asia Pacific/South Asia Liu, Tie nan, Vice Chair, Asia Kevin Meyers, Vice Chair, North America Michael Morris, Chair, Programmes Marie-José Nadeau, Chair, Communications & Outreach Abbas A. Naqi, Vice Chair, Gulf States & Middle East Abubakar Sambo, Vice Chair, Africa Heon Cheol Shin, Vice Chair, 2013 Congress Brian A. Statham, Chair, Studies Johannes Teyssen, Vice Chair, Europe José Antonio Vargas Lleras, Vice Chair, Latin America/Caribbean Graham Ward, Vice Chair, Finance Christoph Frei, Secretary General The World Energy Council (WEC) provides the principal impartial forum to facilitate dialogue among Energy Leaders on the critical issues affecting the global energy agenda. Formed in 1923, with headquarters in London, WEC is the UN accredited global energy body representing more than 3000 organizations in over 90 countries from governments, private and state corporations, academia, NGOs and energy related stakeholders. WEC covers the entire energy spectrum promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all. Assessing the impact of new technologies and innovation on the energy sector, WEC informs global, regional and national energy strategies and policies. WEC does this by hosting high level events, publishing authoritative studies and working through its extensive member network to facilitate the Energy Leaders dialogue. Further details can be found at and

4 Energy Transformation multitude of choices & potential actions Source: WEC Scenarios Energy resource diversification A further shift Nuclear power Renewables Hydro power Bio products to natural gas Energy saving, efficiency and environmental impact mitigation Mass transportation Road transport Buildings & urban design Low-energy & smart appliances Carbon capture and storage Council Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest For sustainable benefits energy. of all

5 World Energy Council what we do identify critical issues & risks issues develop strategic insight & agendas publications World Energy Congress World Energy Leaders Summits Regional Energy Forums National Energy Forums facilitate dialogue & convene leaders events

6 uncertainty issues tracking color: ccs World Energy Council 2012 GLOBAL ISSUES MONITOR Issues Time Tracking climate framework Middle East dynamics critical uncertainties global recession c ogen economy biofuels electric storage commodity prices unconventionals terrorism electric vehicles currency uncertainty nuclear innovative regulation large scale accidents energy subsidies trade barrierseu Cohesion US policy regional interconnection renewable energies smart grids capital markets energy business water cycle sustainable cities nexus large scale hydro energy prices Mi China India e in energy efficien weak signals Brazil Russia energy poverty corruption talent energy affordability tracked issues macro economic need for action geopol. & business vision & regional environment technology << low - IMPACT - high >> 2012Global-TT-0, Wed Aug 29 01:31: impact

7 uncertainty issues tracking color: ccs energy efficiency large scale hydro nuclear unconventionals ccs World Energy Council 2012 GLOBAL ISSUES MONITOR Issues Time Tracking climate framework Middle 2011 East dynamics critical uncertainties global recession c ogen economy biofuels electric storage 2010 commodity prices 2011 unconventionals terrorism electric vehicles currency uncertainty nuclear innovative regulation large scale accidents energy subsidies 2009 regional interconnection trade barrierseu Cohesion renewable energies smart grids capital markets 2011 US policy 2010 energy business water cycle sustainable cities nexus large scale hydro energy prices Mi China India 2011 e in 2009energy 2010 efficien weak signals Brazil Russia energy poverty corruption talent energy affordability tracked issues macro economic need for action geopol. & business vision & regional environment technology << low - IMPACT - high >> 2012Global-TT-2, Mon Aug 27 23:15: impact

8 uncertainty issues tracking color: ccs energy efficiency nuclear renewable energies unconventionals ccs World Energy Council 2012 GLOBAL ISSUES MONITOR Issues Time Tracking climate framework Middle 2011 East dynamics critical uncertainties global recession c ogen economy biofuels electric storage 2010 commodity prices 2011 unconventionals terrorism electric vehicles currency uncertainty nuclear large scale 2011 innovative regulation accidents energy subsidies 2009 regional interconnection trade barrierseu Cohesion renewable energies smart grids 2010 capital markets US policy energy business water cycle sustainable cities 2009 nexus large scale hydro energy prices Mi China India 2011 e in 2009energy 2010 efficien weak signals Brazil Russia energy poverty corruption talent energy affordability tracked issues macro economic need for action geopol. & business vision & regional environment technology << low - IMPACT - high >> 2012Global-TT-1, Mon Aug 27 22:30: impact

9 uncertainty issues tracking color: biofuels climate framework electric vehicles renewable energies smart grids ccs World Energy Council 2012 GLOBAL ISSUES MONITOR Issues Time Tracking climate framework 2011 Middle East dynamics critical uncertainties global recession c ogen economy biofuels 2009 electric storage terrorism electric vehicles 2010 currency uncertainty 2011 commodity 2010prices unconventionals nuclear innovative regulation large scale 2011 accidents 2011 energy subsidies regional interconnection trade barrierseu Cohesion renewable energies smart grids 2010 capital markets US policy energy business water cycle sustainable cities 2009 nexus large scale hydro energy prices Mi China India e in energy efficien weak signals Brazil Russia energy poverty corruption talent energy affordability tracked issues macro economic need for action geopol. & business vision & regional environment technology << low - IMPACT - high >> 2012Global-TT-ren, Mon Aug 27 23:20: impact

10 uncertainty ogen economy issues tracking color: climate framework nuclear World Energy Council 2012 GLOBAL/REGIONAL ISSUES MONITOR Geographical Issues Tracking ccs biofuels terrorism electric LatAm vehicles currency uncertainty MENA electric storage Asia NonOECD LatAm Africa G20 commodity prices unconventionals climate framework G20 critical uncertainties Middle East Europe dynamics OECD Asia global recession NAm OECD nuclear Europe innovative regulation large scale accidents energy subsidies MENA regional interconnection trade barrierseu Cohesion renewable energies smart grids capital markets US NonOECD policy Africa energy business water cycle sustainable cities nexus large scale hydro energy prices m ov h ov China IndiaMi NA la c e reg energy efficien weak signals Brazil Russia energy poverty corruption talent energy affordability tracked issues macro economic need for action geopol. & business vision & regional environment technology << low - IMPACT - high >> 2012Global.GT-clm-nuc, Mon Aug 27 23:21: impact

11 uncertainty issues tracking color: ccs unconventionals World Energy Council 2012 GLOBAL/REGIONAL ISSUES MONITOR Geographical Issues Tracking Europe G20 NAm climate framework critical uncertainties m ov h Middle East dynamics ccs LatAm OECD global recession ogen economy NonOECD MENA Asia Africa biofuels OECD NA electric storage MENA Europe energy prices commodity prices G20 ov unconventionals terrorism electric vehicles e Asia currency uncertainty nuclear large scale accidents China IndiaMi innovative regulation energy subsidies la regional interconnection LatAm trade barriers NonOECD EU Cohesion renewable energies smart grids c capital markets US policy reg energy business water cycle sustainable cities nexus large scale hydro energy efficien weak signals Brazil Africa Russia energy poverty corruption talent energy affordability tracked issues macro economic need for action geopol. & business vision & regional environment technology << low - IMPACT - high >> 2012Global.GT-ccs-unc, Tue Aug 28 16:27: impact

12 uncertainty ogen economy weak signals issues tracking color: climate framework large scale hydro Brazil World Energy Council 2012 GLOBAL/REGIONAL ISSUES MONITOR Geographical Issues Tracking ccs biofuels terrorism electric vehicles currency uncertainty trade barrierseu Cohesion US policy Russia G20 energy poverty corruption MENA electric storage NAm talent smart grids NonOECD LatAm Africa commodity prices unconventionals energy business water cycle sustainable cities Asia nexus large scale hydro Europe MENA OECD energy affordability Africa climate framework G20 critical uncertainties Middle East Europe dynamics OECD Asia global recession NAm nuclear innovative regulation large scale accidents energy subsidies regional interconnection renewable energies NonOECD capital markets tracked issues macro economic energy prices LatAm need for action m ov h ov China IndiaMi la reg energy efficien geopol. & business vision & regional environment technology c e << low - IMPACT - high >> 2012Global.GT-clm-hyd, Tue Aug 28 20:12: impact

13 uncertainty ogen economy issues tracking color: climate framework renewable energies World Energy Council 2012 GLOBAL/REGIONAL ISSUES MONITOR Geographical Issues Tracking ccs biofuels MENA electric storage NonOECD LatAm Africa climate framework G20 critical uncertainties Middle East Europe dynamics OECD Asia global recession NAm commodity prices unconventionals Asia terrorism electric vehicles currency uncertainty nuclear innovative regulation NonOECD large scale accidents NAm LatAm energy subsidies regional interconnection Africa trade barrierseu Cohesion renewable energies smart grids G20 capital markets US policy MENA energy business water cycle sustainable cities Europe OECD nexus large scale hydro energy prices m ov h ov China IndiaMi la c e reg energy efficien weak signals Brazil Russia energy poverty corruption talent energy affordability tracked issues macro economic need for action geopol. & business vision & regional environment technology << low - IMPACT - high >> 2012Global.GT-clm-ren, Mon Aug 27 23:22: impact

14 uncertainty ogen economy weak signals issues tracking color: ccs climate framework smart grids NonOECD MENA Brazil Asia World Energy Council 2012 GLOBAL/REGIONAL ISSUES MONITOR Geographical Issues Tracking ccs Africa biofuels Europe G20 MENA LatAm MENA electric storage NonOECD NAm OECD LatAm Africa commodity prices climate framework G20 critical uncertainties Middle East Europe dynamics OECD Asia global recession NAm unconventionals terrorism electric vehicles currency uncertainty nuclear innovative regulation large scale accidents Europe energy subsidies OECD regional G20 interconnection trade barrierseu Cohesion renewable energies LatAm smart grids capital markets US policy NonOECD energy business water cycle sustainable cities NAm nexus large scale hydro Asia Russia energy poverty Africa corruption talent energy affordability tracked issues macro economic energy prices need for action m ov h ov China IndiaMi la reg energy efficien geopol. & business vision & regional environment technology c e << low - IMPACT - high >> 2012Global.GT-CO2, Tue Aug 28 19:51: impact

15 Freeway/Tollway fuel demand (EJ) Source: WEC Global Transport Scenarios % +30% increase in fuel demand for all transport Non-OECD countries demand for transport fuels is expected to exceed that of the OECD countries by OECD OECD FW Non-OECD FW OECD TW Non-OECD TW

16 Freeway/Tollway CO2 emissions Source: WEC Global Transport Scenarios % - 46% increase in CO2 emissions from cars +79% +16% increase in CO2 emissions from all transports

17 Download the full report on WEC Global Transport Scenarios 2050 from 96% Total number of cars more than doubles: times)

18 Maslow & energy policy Maslow pyramid of human needs self realisation self esteem social needs safety needs physiological needs A person who is lacking food, safety, love and esteem would most probably hunger for food more strongly than for anything else, stated the American psychologist Abraham Maslow in 1943 while formulating a theory to explain the motivational structure of a healthy person. Pyramid of energy policy needs Full paper published in Energy Policy. global & longterm risks local pollution & immediate nuisances affordability & competitiveness energy security access to electricity / commercial energy Abraham Maslow

19 Overcoming the Energy Trilemma Source: 2011 Assessment of country energy and climate policies a balancing act

20 Got all eggs in one basket?

21 Brazil: 2011 Energy Sustainability Index Source: 2011 Assesment of country energy and climate policies trilemma ranking Rank Supply demand balance Social equity Environmental impact mitigation 1 Canada United States (1) Sweden 2 Russia Canada Iceland 3 Côte d Ivoire Australia France 16 Brazil 62 Brazil 65 Brazil 90 Cyprus Nepal Indonesia 91 Qatar Tanzania Botswana 92 Kuwait Ethiopia Libya

22 2012 global developments UN SecGen s SE4All: By universal access - doubling global rate of improvement in energy efficiency - doubling share of renewable energy in renewable mix

23 Download the full report on WEC Policy Assessment index structure and weighting axes dimensions indicators

24 Download the full report on Trilemma of Energy Sustainability: 3 very different groups e.g. Argentina, Canada, Egypt, Germany, United Kingdom e.g. Cameroon, Finland, Ireland, Morocco, Uruguay e.g. Algeria, Mongolia, Netherlands, India, Turkey, UAE

25 Securing tomorrow s energy today World Energy Congress 2013, October, Daegu

26 World Energy Council seizing opportunity through working in partnerships

27 The energy system today sets the context for the future 33% 21% 27% 10% 6% 3% 27% 46% 27% Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division; IEA 2011 World population 7 billion; 50% in urban environment

28 Global oil shale resources Source: WEC Survey of Energy resources trillion barrels estimated resources in oil shale worldwide 300deposits registered in some 40 countries 4times more oil shale resources than crude oil resources 77%of world resources estimated to be in USA 17%increase in proven oil reserves between billion barrels estimated mostly in East & Middle China

29 Global oil shale production Source: WEC Survey of Energy resources countries produce most of todays oil shale: Brazil, China, Estonia, Germ any, Israel, Russia, UK 15Mt world annual production of oil shale; peak in 1981 with 47Mt US$ is the production cost of oil from oil shale rocks main challenges cost CO2 water key factors technology used: Enefit, PetroSix, ATP, Kiviter, Fushun properties of oil shale location of the resource regulatory & fiscal regimes final products Shares in world oil shale production, 2006

30 Key figures for Jordan oil shale Source: WEC Survey of Energy resources billion tonnes of oil shale in Jordan 60%of country covered by oil shale reserves 3deposits intensely exploited: El Lajjun, Sultani, Jurf Ed- Darawish Characteristics: Stable, low emission levels and low carbon burn-out High organic matter content Suitability of the deposits for surface mining Convenient location: away from population centres but good transport links to potential consumers

31 The energy system today sets the context for the future 33% 21% 27% 10% 6% 3% 27% 46% 27% Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division; IEA 2011 World population 7 billion; 50% in urban environment

32 The energy system today sets the context for the future 33% 21% 27% 10% 6% 3% 27% 46% 27% Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division; IEA 2011 World population 7 billion; 50% in urban environment

33 Energy-Water nexus: CCS Source: WEC Water for Energy 2010 Water consumption for thermoelectric power plants Source: DOE-NETL, 2008; World Energy Council: Water For Energy ,5 3 develop fact-basis for public policy debate on energy-water nexus 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Subcritical PC Supercritical PC IGCC (slurry fed) IGCC (dry fed) NGCC Nuclear Without CCS (m3/mwh) With CCS (m3/mwh)

34 The energy system today sets the context for the future 33% 21% 27% 10% 6% 3% 27% 46% 27% Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division; IEA 2011 World population 7 billion; 50% in urban environment

35 2012 post-fukushima nuclear Download the full report on Nuclear Energy one Year after Fukushima, WEC, 2012 Nuclear renaissance stopped?

36 2012 post-fukushima nuclear Download the full report on Nuclear Energy one Year after Fukushima, WEC, 2012 nuclear electricity in operation under construction COUNTRY share Planned* Proposed* No. MWe TWh % No. MWe No. MWe No. MWe ARGENTINA ARMENIA BELGIUM BRAZIL BULGARIA CANADA CHINA CZECH REP FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY HUNGARY INDIA IRAN ITALY JAPAN KOREA LITHUANIA MEXICO NETHERLANDS PAKISTAN ROMANIA RUSSIA SLOVAKIA SLOVENIA SOUTH AFRICA SPAIN SWEDEN SWITZERLAND TAIWAN UKRAINE UK USA TOTAL In operation: 439 reactors, 2/3 in US, France, Japan, Russia Under construction: 61 reactors Others 25% Japan 5% Russia 15% India 4% Korea 11% China 40% Sources: 2010 WEC Report Performance of Generating Plant: New Metrics for Industry in Transition; * WNA 2011

37 The energy system today sets the context for the future 33% 21% 27% 10% 6% 3% 27% 46% 27% Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division; IEA 2011 World population 7 billion; 50% in urban environment

38 Renewables Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP, 2012 NEW INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY GLOBAL & BY COUNTRY AND ASSET CLASS, 2011, AND GROWTH ON 2010, $BN Solar PV prices have fallen, from $3.50 per watt in 2008, to $1.43 in 2011 source: GTM Research

39 Renewables Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP, 2012 GLOBAL NEW INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY BY REGION, , $BN

40 Renewables Source: WEC Survey of Energy resources % growth rate sustained over 30 years: market share: 1%0 => 1% Or: 1% => 10%. >> We easily over-estimate what a new technology can do in the short-term.. and under-estimate what it may capable of in the long-term.<< Source: 2010 Assessment of country energy and climate policies, World Energy Council, Oliver Wyman; US EIA

41 The energy system today sets the context for the future 33% 21% 27% 10% 6% 3% 27% 46% 27% Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division; IEA 2011 World population 7 billion; 50% in urban environment

42 Energy Efficiency Source: 2010 Report on Urban Innovation, World Energy Council McKinsey, 2009: Energy efficiency could save $700 billion. WILL IT?

43 Energy Efficiency Source: 2010 Report on Urban Innovation, World Energy Council People living in urban areas: 50% in 2008, 60% by 2030, 75% by 2050 Cities > 1 million inhabitants: 179 in 1975, 430 in 2007 Energy consumption in cities: 2/3 in 2006, 3/4, in 2030 Physical capital is one part of the investment challenge Social & institutional capital of same order of maginitude Source: 2010 Report on Urban Innovation, World Energy Council

44 The energy system today sets the context for the future 33% 21% 27% 10% 6% 3% 27% 46% 27% Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division; IEA 2011 World population 7 billion; 50% in urban environment

45 Lead time and lifetime matter! Buildings Hydroelectricity plants Nuclear plants Coal power stations Gas turbines Vehicles The rate of technological change is related to lead times to develop new equipment, obtain permits to deploy, and lifetimes of capital stock and equipment Source: Shell International BV