Visions for Sustainable Resource Management

Transcription

1 Visions for Sustainable Resource Management Dr. Project workshop "Eco- Innovation Observatory" 25 January 2011 Wuppertal Director Material Flows and Resource Management Member of the International Resource Panel

2 The presentation!! The goal of sustainable resource management!! Long-term dynamics of the socio-industrial metabolism!! Policy challenges!! Four visions!! Conclusions 2

3 What is the goal of sustainable resource consumption? The 7 principles of sustainable resource management 1.! Secure adequate supply and efficient use of materials, energy and land resources as reliable biophysical basis for creation of wealth and well-being in societies and for future generations 2.! Maintain life-supporting functions and services of ecosystems 3.! Provide for the basic institutions of societies and their coexistence with nature 4.! Minimize risks for security and economic turmoil due to dependence on resources 5.! Contribute to a globally fair distribution of resource use and an adequate burden sharing 6.! Minimize problem shifting between environmental media, types of resources, economic sectors, regions, and generations 7.! Drive resource productivity (total material productivity) at a rate higher than GDP growth Source: Bringezu and Bleischwitz (2009) 3

4 Humans exert major pressures on the environment AIR CLIMATE GHG emissions SOIL Mineral Resource Flows Societies Economies Land Use Change BIODIVERSITY WATER 4

5 Current features of metabolic development Resource efficiency and carbon recycling 5

6 Future features of metabolic development Resource efficiency and carbon recycling 6

7 Targets for long-term sustainable development of the socio-industrial metabolism of the EU tonnes 2000: TMC abiot = 33.4 t/cap -> reduction by F5; import/export relations assumed constant for TMR target calculations Nov

8 Priority tasks for resource policies Cross-sectoral challenges I!! Monitoring and control of the "Big Three" essential!! Indicators should measure national (EU) consumption of global resources GHG emissions (GWP)!! Targets should aim at absolute levels which allow more sustainable supply, e.g t TMC abiot /cap - 0,2 ha GLUA crop /cap in 2050 Mineral extraction (TMC abiot ) Global land use (GLUA cropland ) (NAI forest ) 8

9 Priority tasks for resource policies Cross-sectoral challenges II!! Cross-sectoral challenge: Resource productivity increase (GDP/TMR) Possible target: doubling resource productivity from 2010 to triggering innovation - enhancing competitiveness - lowering import dependance GDP (trillion Euro); TMR (billion tonnes) TMR GDP GDP/TMR ,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 0,00 Resource Productivity (Euro per kg) - reliefing environmental pressure GDP average growth p.a. 1.5% 2.3% 3.0% TMR reduction ( ) 35% 27% 20% 9

10 Four visions for a sustainable resource management!! Resource efficient and recycling based industries!! Steady stocks societies!! Solarized technosphere!! Balanced bio-economy 10

11 Four visions for a sustainable resource management!! Resource efficient and recycling based industries!! Steady stocks societies!! Solarized technosphere!! Balanced bio-economy 11

12 Resource efficient and recycling based industry Characteristics!! Balance between de-materialization and re-materialization!! Resource light product design 12

13 Where are the greatest potentials for minimizing resource use for products? The case of automobiles 4b.Changes in product structure! e.g. shift towards smaller cars Product A Consumer 1. Extraction 2. Material Efficiency! 10-15% reduction 3. Substitution! e.g. aluminium vs steel! high risk of burden shifting Product B 4a. Changes in product design! e.g. new forms of car design!greater potentials? 9 Dec

14 Where are the biggest potentials to increase resource efficiency in automotive industries?!!"#$!%&'()*+!,-.+/01!+*23)( 2&.-1!1.!4*+3/4!1*-4!!!!5.()!1*-4!6!*7,5.-3()!*71-*4*2! 8.-*4.9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:;%!%'-!<<!!"#$!%&!!!!!!!!!!'(!%&!!)*#!+,)$$%-!!!!!!!!!!"*.!&!/0123&45,)$$%- TMR(kg)/100km * 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 Seat Ibiza Golf A4 S-Klasse Lupo Loremo Pac Car Pac Car TMR Total (kg)/100 km TMR Production (kg)/100 km TMR Use (kg)/ 100 km 9 Dec 2010 * Life time distance: km Daimler Chrysler AG; others km GWP 100 kg CO2 äquivalent pro 100km 35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 Seat Ibiza Golf A4 S-Klasse Lupo Loremo GWP 100 kg CO2 äquiv./100 km Total GWP 100 kg CO2 äquiv./100 km Production (incl.production of fuel) GWP 100 kg CO2 äquiv./100 km Use 14 * v.d. Sand et al. / WI 2007

15 Resource efficient and recycling based industry Characteristics!! Balance between de-materialization and re-materialization!! Resource light product design!! Shift to more services, product-service-systems!! Recycling systems - mining the technosphere ("urban mining") - diversity of chemical elements -> challenge for separation technologies after collection!! Functional diversity of complex materials and micro/nano structures based on a common element matrix - organic materials - molecular design, nanotech, bionic 15

16 Resource efficient and recycling based industry Major challenges!! foster material and energy efficiency (dematerialisation)!! resource efficient recycling at various levels (re-materialisation)!! limit absolute consumption of resources!! investments into R&D on SRM innovations!! improve info systems at various levels (EW-MFA to resource protocoll of buildings/components)!! education and training 16

17 Four visions for a sustainable resource management!! Resource efficient and recycling based industries!! Steady stocks societies!! Solarized technosphere!! Balanced bio-economy 17

18 The steady stocks society Characteristics!! Dynamic flow equilibrium - of total technosphere stock (consisting of many durable product/ material stocks) - concerning artefacts at different locations!! Approaching a saturation level of buildings and infrastructures - living space per capita - roads etc.!! Shift from adding new constructions to renovation!! No net expansion of built-up land (114 ha/d, )!! Improving quality of life in heterogenous regions!! Growing and shrinking infrastructures!! Resource light buildings "Featherweights" (also Vision One)!! Recycling and urban mining (- " -) 18

19 Downsizing of multi-storey buildings in Stollberg, Germany Before the partial deconstruction (above) and afterwards (below) 19

20 The steady stocks society Major challenges!! Stabilizing the physical stock of fixed capital -> Re-directing investments into a. renovation, quality improvement of existing buildings and infrastructures, b. non-fixed capital formation ("brain-ware" instead of "hardware") -> Innovative investments? New assessment criteria for fixed capital changes in national accounts?!! Stabilizing stocks of materials may not be sufficient to halt spread of built-up land ("flattening" and dispersion of buildings) -> certificates for "built-up" land? 20

21 The steady stocks society Policy tasks!! fostering more efficient use of existing buildings!! expansion of highway system -> optimising existing network!! qualify paradigm of equal regional development!! minimise state owned fixed capital while considering social aspects and quality of public utilities!! market based instruments (esp. phasing out subsidies for additional constructions, land use certificates)!! resource light construction and renovation of buildings 21

22 Four visions for a sustainable resource management!! Resource efficient and recycling based industries!! Steady stocks societies!! Solarized technosphere!! Balanced bio-economy 22

23 Solarized technosphere Solar energy systems potentials & trade-offs Biomass: captures 1-6% of solar radiation Solar systems: 10-20% (currently, >40% reached, 60% under development)!! PV could supply EJ/y electricity on 393,000 km2 (1 % of "unused" land, mainly deserts)!! This would require 9-16 bill t/year mineral resource requirements (= double to triple TMR of Germany in 2000) -> Renewable energy requires significant amount of non-renewables in the form of minerals 23

24 Integration of solar energy functions into buildings and infrastructures Photo credits see Bringezu and Bleischwitz 2009 and TU Darmstadt Nov

25 Solar Islands CSEM (Centre Cuisse d Èlectronique e de Microtechnique), Hinderling et al

26 Solarized technosphere Tasks for research, policy and technology development!! analyse non-renewable mineral flows associated with renewable energy use and the related environmental impacts,!! assess the trade-offs and potential synergies between climate, energy and resource policies!! foster the development of integrated energy technologies (e.g. multi-functional wall and roofs for the solarisation of buildings), and explore the potential of "solar islands" 26

27 Four visions for a sustainable resource management!! Resource efficient and recycling based industries!! Steady stocks societies!! Solarized technosphere!! Balanced bio-economy 27

28 Balanced Bio-Economy and Bioniconomy Characteristics!! Medium-term vision: Bio-economy largely based on biomass, interwoven with and nested in natural eco-systems!! Balanced with regard to - food vs. non-food (food first) - production consistent with local environmental conditions (e.g. risk of erosion, eutrophication): "Sustainable Production" - domestic and foreign supply and consumption level not exceeding local, regional and global capacities: "Sustainable Consumption"!! Long-term vision: Bioniconomy - making use of biological principles ("bionic") - carbon recycling and industrial photosynthesis (mineral based systems) 3 Nov

29 Balanced Bio-Economy and Bioniconomy Key challenges for technology development!! Extension of the bio-refinery principle to the whole economy: cascading use of materials and energy from biomass (first as material, second for energy)!! Recycling and re-use of carbon from end-of-life products (in particular organic waste)!! Carbon capture from exhaust gases and ambient air -> carbon capture and re-use (CCR) instead of CCS 29

30 Exemplary routes of carbon recycling 30

31 Revision of climate change? At least a future option to gain feed-stock for carbon recycling!! Capturing CO 2 from ambient air!! If driven by renewable energy could mitigate climate change!! Provide carbon without biomass harvest!! Challenge: 3 t water / t CO 2 TMR unkown K. Lackner, Scientific American June 2010 Nov

32 Balanced Bio-Economy and Bioniconomy Policy tasks!! halt global expansion of cropland (e.g. by economic instruments to value natural ecosystems, REDD etc.)!! direct expansion of cropland to degraded land: research on potentials and trade-offs ongoing!! develop integrated land use planning for agriculture, forestry, settlements/infrastructure/mining, and conservation areas (also in DCs)!! monitor global land use for domestic consumption!! develop incentive framework to adjust consumption of biomass to levels which can sustainably be supplied: - revisit targets and subsidies for biomass consumption (e.g. biofuel quota and tax exemptions) - foster material and energy efficiency (e.g. fuel efficiency of car fleets, minimisation of food waste, healthier diets) 32

33 Conclusions!! The physical economy (socio-industrial metabolism) undergoes longterm dynamics!! A transition towards a more sustainable condition corresponds to a maturation which increases the independence from natural resources (de-coupling from materials, energy, land requirements)!! Essential future traits might be carbon recycling and industrial photosynthesis (mineral based systems)!! Four visions outline essential characteristics of the whole metabolism: - resource efficient and recycling based industry - the steady stocks society - solarised technosphere - balanced bio-economy and bioniconomy 33

34 Many thanks for your attention! ISBN: