Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks
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1 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks The Atmosphere External Forcing Internal Adjustment The Ice Result The Continents The Oceans Climate System
2 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks The Atmosphere External Forcing Internal Adjustment The Ice Result The Continents The Oceans Climate System
3 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks The Atmosphere External Forcing Internal Adjustment The Ice Result The Continents The Oceans Climate System Questions: How did the internal adjustment work in the past? How will it work in the future?
4 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks The Atmosphere External Forcing Internal Adjustment The Ice Result The Continents The Oceans Climate System Questions: How did the internal adjustment work in the past? How will it work in the future? What is the role of the water cycle?
5 The Water Cycle Atmosphere 1. Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water Ice Caps Continents 4. Groundwater Oceans
6 The Water Cycle Question: - What components are important, what are not? 1. Atmosphere Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water Ice Caps Continents 4. Groundwater Oceans
7 The Water Cycle Question: - What components are important, what are not? 1. Atmosphere Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water Ice Caps Continents 4. Groundwater Oceans
8 The Water Cycle Question: - What components are important, what are not? 1. Atmosphere Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water Ice Caps Continents 4. Groundwater Oceans
9 The Water Cycle Question: - What components are important, what are not? - Is the groundwater important? 1. Atmosphere Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water Ice Caps Continents 4. Groundwater? Oceans
10 Is the Groundwater Reservoir Important? What does groundwater do? - Temporarily holds wet-period surplus, and later supplies dry-period deficit - Sustains stream flow in humid and sub-humid climate, receives loosing streams in arid climate - It is the slow component of the system: regulating dynamics? Reservoirs Volume (1000 km 3 ) Residence Time Oceans 1,338 ~ 4,000 years Atmosphere 0.01 hours - days Ice ,000 years Atmosphere Soil Water 0.02 hours - months 1. Atmosphere Surface Water 0.14 days - years Groundwater 23.4 days - 10,000 years 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water Ice Caps Continents 4. Groundwater? Oceans
11 Is the Groundwater Reservoir Important? Current Models ~ 1-3 m Land Surface Base of soil model Without Groundwater: - Model climate drifts away (little memory) - Cannot close the water budget - Model impact on water resources unrealistic and inconsistent - Feedback cut off - Uncertainty in future predictions 1. Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water 4. Groundwater? Continents Atmosphere Ice Caps Oceans
12 NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF 40-yr Reanalysis Surface Water Budget for Mississippi River Basin (Roads and Betts, 2000) OBSERVATION NCEP-NCAR (2m soil) ECMWF (2.89m)
13 Is the Groundwater Reservoir Important? Current Models ~ 1-3 m Land Surface Base of soil model Without Groundwater: - Model climate drifts away (little memory) - Cannot close the water budget - Model impact on water resources unrealistic, and inconsistent - Feedback cut off - Uncertainty in future predictions 1. Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water 4. Groundwater? Continents Atmosphere Ice Caps Oceans
14 Is the Groundwater Reservoir Important? Hypothesis: - The groundwater reservoir directly influences the soil moisture (spatial structure, temporal memory) and boundary layer processes. - It regulates the duration of floods and droughts through land-atmosphere feedbacks. - It is essential to closing the continental water budget. Approach: - Mechanistic process model first principles observations - Model experiments: links? 1. Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water 4. Groundwater? Continents Atmosphere Ice Caps Oceans
15 Standard RAMS RAMS-Hydro Atmosphere (a) Cross-section View Cell i, j 1. Atmosphere R Qr 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water Ice Caps z i,j Q 8 S g Continents h i,j Q 4 4. Groundwater Oceans msl
16 Equations: Mass balance in groundwater storage: Darcy s Law for lateral groundwater flow: Darcy s Law for groundwater river exchange: Mass balance in surface water storage: River flow routing from cell to cell to the ocean: (linear reservoir model) Q r Q yr x dt ds n g 8 1 s h h b z h b z h w K K Q n n n n n 2 ) ( ) ( 2 r r rb rb rb r L w b K z h Q s n r h s Q I Q Q dt ds 7 1 Q s = S s / k s
17 Water Table Depth (m) Water Table D Day in 2003 Observations (c) Day in (d) Day in Water table depth (e) 549,616 sites (f) Day in River flow Up. Mississippi Missouri Ohio Arkansas Lo. Mississippi Soil Moisture
18 Result-1: Equilibrium water table
19 Daily Flow (1000m 3 /s) Daily Flow (1000m 3 /s) Daily Flow (1000m 3 /s) Daily Flow (1000m 3 /s) 20 Result-2: Arkansas Groundwater - River link Missouri 10 Up. Miss 5 0 Miso Upper Mississippi Oh 0 Ark Lo. Miss Ohio River Standard RAMS RAMS-Hydro Atmosphere Atmosphere Lower Mississippi 2. Soil-Plants 4. Groundwater 3. Surface Water Continents Ice Oceans Daily Flow (1000m 3 /s) Year
20 Result-3: Flux across the water table: Soil/Plant Groundwater link Standard RAMS RAMS-Hydro 1. Atmosphere Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water Ice Continents 4. Groundwater Oceans
21 Result-3: Groundwater Soil/Plant link Water table depth Root zone soil water
22 Is the Groundwater Reservoir Important? Hypothesis: - The groundwater reservoir directly influences root zone soil water (spatial structure, temporal memory) and boundary layer processes (Richard Anyah). - It regulates the duration of floods and droughts through its long term memory and land-atmosphere feedbacks (Richard Anyah, Deniz Kustu) NSF Water Cycle - It is essential to closing the continental water budget (Gonzalo Miguez-Macho). 1. Atmosphere Atmosphere 2. Soil-Plants 3. Surface Water Ice Caps Continents 4. Groundwater? Oceans
23 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks The Atmosphere External Forcing Internal Adjustment The Ice Result The Continents The Oceans Climate System Q1: How does climate change modify the terrestrial water cycle?
24 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks The Atmosphere External Forcing Internal Adjustment The Ice Result The Continents The Oceans Climate System Q1: How does climate change modify the terrestrial water cycle? Q2: How does the change in water cycle modify the climate?
25 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks The Atmosphere External Forcing Internal Adjustment The Ice Result The Continents The Oceans Climate System Q1: How does climate change modify the terrestrial water cycle? Q2: How does the change in water cycle modify the climate? Q3: What will the humans add to this 2-way traffic?
26 Water Table Depth (m) Large-Scale, Decades-long Groundwater Pumping USGS Site Chase County, Nebraska Well Depth 70.10m USGS Site Lamb County, Texas Well Depth 61.57m USGS Site Scott County, Kansas Well Depth 39.01m Year
27 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks The Atmosphere External Forcing Internal Adjustment The Ice Result The Continents The Oceans Climate System Q1: How does climate change modify the terrestrial water cycle? Q2: How does the change in water cycle modify the climate? Q3: What will the humans add to this 2-way traffic? Q3: What role did the water cycle play in the past (G-IG)?
28 Ice Core Records: CH 4 Source ~ Wetlands Questions: what was the extent of the wetlands? Modern Day Wetlands
29 Ice Core Records: Modern Day Equilibrium Groundwater CH 4 Source ~ Wetlands Can we reconstruct the paleo-hydrology? Modern Day Wetlands
30 Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change: Linkages and Feedbacks The Atmosphere External Forcing Internal Adjustment The Ice Result The Continents The Oceans Climate System Q1: How does climate change modify the terrestrial water cycle? Q2: How does the change in water cycle modify the climate? Q3: What will the humans add to this 2-way traffic? Q3: What role did the water cycle play in the past (G-IG)?
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