Growth and Resource Use 4/13/2014

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Mitchell Ball
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Some resources get protected sooner, some later 1 2 there exists a finite number of atoms of any element on earth [apart from meteorites, fusion and fission] weather, geologic and oceanic processes,

1 Sue Holt Growth and Resource Use Animal waste management 1. Conservation of matter 2. Trends in global growth & resource use 3. Sources of growth 4. Interaction between growth and environmental quality 5. Some resources get protected sooner, some later 1 2 there exists a finite number of atoms of any element on earth [apart from meteorites, fusion and fission] weather, geologic and oceanic processes, and life forms rearrange these atoms into different molecules and compounds different states (solid, liquid, gas) different locations Tom Lehrer the law of conservation of matter the law of conservation of matter the law: during physical or chemical changes, matter cannot be created or destroyed (apart from fusion and fission) the mass of materials flowing into the economy from the environment has to either accumulate in the economy (for a while) or return to the environment as waste in the long run, it all returns to the environment as waste matter can change form and location, but it cannot disappear whatever quantity of matter was there before is still there atoms never get lost environment extraction recycling production & consumption emissions, wastes 5 6 1

grocery store food waste 2 readings on Kroger s program 1. http://climateresolve.org/kroger-co-s-wasterecycling-solution-electrifies-compton-hub/ 2. http://articles.latimes.

150 T/day food waste ground up inorganics removed + wastewater from nearby dairy processor put into silo, all air removed anaerobic bacteria eat waste, give off CH 4 methane powers gas turbines,

2 grocery store food waste 2 readings on Kroger s program s/la-fi-ralphs-energy Kroger s anaerobic digester Compton, CA what matter comes in? what rearranged matter comes out? 150 T/day food waste ground up inorganics removed + wastewater from nearby dairy processor put into silo, all air removed anaerobic bacteria eat waste, give off CH 4 methane powers gas turbines, creates 13 megawatts/yr converted sludge is rich organic fertilizer wastewater to sewage treatment plant implications of the conservation of matter 1. there is no such thing as zero emissions 2. wastes don t necessarily look the same as the natural resource they came from change of phase solid, liquid, or gas change of compounds change of location change of environmental effects 3. some emissions are neutral, some have adverse effects, some beneficial, some truly toxic - not all wastes are pollution 4. facing these facts, we can: a. choose the mix and form and time and place for waste discharge to better fit the environment ecological industrial design b. increase resource efficiency, reuse, product durability c. spend less time worrying about less significant emissions 10 Industrial ecology, eco-design the story of growth focuses on the potential role of industry in reducing environmental burdens from the extraction of raw materials, to the production of goods, to the use of those goods and to the management of the resulting wastes. Yale University, Journal of Industrial Ecology Hans Rosling 200 Countries, 200 Years 11 2

income = value of production = GDP Gross Domestic Product Recipes how we use natural resources to produce things GDP = value * recipe(quantity of atoms, how arranged) value = capacity to generate

of atoms used instead, value is VERY dependent on how those atoms are arranged smart phone vs. oldest phones how much material is used?

years ago 13 14 how does growth happen? 4 different forces work to transform matter into goods & services o Ideas created by human capital 1. people make things o add to human capital 2.

3 income = value of production = GDP Gross Domestic Product Recipes how we use natural resources to produce things GDP = value * recipe(quantity of atoms, how arranged) value = capacity to generate wellbeing in future better recipes use safer elements, fewer atoms, in more valuable arrangements create more income and increase the value of production value does not depend much at all on amount of atoms used instead, value is VERY dependent on how those atoms are arranged smart phone vs. oldest phones how much material is used? - very little (tho some of it hazardous) but the phone provides access to amazing amounts of info in a much smaller size than before one iphone has more computing power than the entire Earth did 50 years ago how does growth happen? 4 different forces work to transform matter into goods & services o Ideas created by human capital 1. people make things o add to human capital 2. qualities of population skills, talents, interests human capital 3. ideas 4. institutions o promote growth and wellbeing, especially when freely and widely shared o ex graphene h/innovation/graphene-quest-forfirst-ever-2d-material/# 15 Institutions not just this kind institutions anything that makes cooperation and sharing easier you are here social norms shared rules of acceptable social behavior education, training, science, contracts and law trade systems and markets especially free press, transparency, rule of law especially important for resource protection, because protection isn t done by individuals, it s done by communities 3

4 Are there limits to GDP growth? Can 7+ billion people live within the Earth s natural resource limits? If so, how? some people think so, people who perceive growth as more things but growth is really about more value, from less matter by better ideas plus better means of sharing those ideas there is an infinite number of ways to rearrange a finite number of atoms conclusion there are no physical limits to growth there is no such thing as a waste-free world - law of the conservation of matter can there be a pollution-free, resource-protective world? advances in science and technology, better recipes institutions (cooperation and rules) to protect resources - policies to promote sustainability & reduced resource extraction Resource Efficiency dematerialization = use smaller resource quantities for each unit of production 1) saw mills historically, lumber-mill saw blades were ¼ inch thick - yielded 10 boards per standard tree + lots of sawdust 2) advanced high-strength steel - made by repeated heating and cooling of steel - rolls out 40% thinner -twice as strong now, blades are < 1/8 inch thick - yield boards per standard tree + much less sawdust % increase in resource efficiency + less waste fewer trees need to be harvested for the same number of boards - weight of car drops 500 lb more energy-efficient ) Las Vegas is the most water-smart city in the US is it possible to produce more GDP while using less/ fewer natural resources? outlawed lawns for new home construction put golf courses on water budgets city pays $40,000 to remove an acre of lawn 94% of water down the drain gets treated, recycled, returned to Lake Mead reduced their total water usage to what it was ten years ago, before the population grew by 50% better recipes reduce product size -- miniaturization improve the features of a product increase product durability and ease of recycling or reuse change the composition of the product substitute more plentiful, harmless elements for scarcer, damaging elements increase the resource efficiency of a product (next slide) adapt the waste characteristics of the product to be more easily assimilated in the natural environment expand activities and industries involved in pollution reduction, habitat protection

4 times as big humans are 3 times as efficient in resource use now as a century

curves 2/3 of old resource use pattern has been avoided Growth in Global

2009. 25 26 Air Quality How does this differ from previous slide?

27 28 routine questions to ask about any difference in evidence: in Cairo

not then? why here and not there? why this group and not that group? http://www.

5 20 th Century global growth 2000 vs global production 24 times as big global use of natural materials 8.4 times as big humans are 3 times as efficient in resource use now as a century ago interaction between growth and environmental quality - environmental Kuznets curves 2/3 of old resource use pattern has been avoided Growth in Global Materials Use, GDP and Population during the 20 th Century, Ecological Economics, Air Quality How does this differ from previous slide? How to explain it? What do you see? How do you explain it? routine questions to ask about any difference in evidence: in Cairo Zabbaleen (trash people) collect and recycle 80% of municipal waste why now and not then? why here and not there? why this group and not that group? dynamic/00466/recyclegetty_466715t.jpg mokattam8.jpg 29 60% is composted waste fed to their pigs and goats 30 5

6 Which resources are easier to protect? Water Quality those that fit four circumstances: 1. resource characteristics are well-known and matched to the number of people using it - people know how fast the resource reproduces, they recognize when its quality/quantity is deteriorating A third pattern. Why different? 2. the resource is not highly mobile local game vs. migrating game 3. damages from overuse are immediate, observable, reversible 4. rules for resource use evolve easily from existing institutions, conflict resolution is easy and widely perceived as fair Outcome strong motivation and opportunity to protect the resource Which resources are more difficult to protect? three significant resource problems those that fit four circumstances: 1. key resource characteristics are unobservable, unknown or poorly matched to the population of users 2. the resource is highly mobile e.g., high-seas fishery 3. damages from overuse are cumulative or delayed or irreversible 4. users have weak institutions (maybe a short history together), conflicts over resource use not easily or fairly resolved Outcome weak motivation or opportunity to protect the resource 1. potable water for all 2. changing climate 3. biodiversity Why these? a. misuse of these resources tends to be less visible b. adverse effects take long time to develop/be revealed c. effects tend to be cumulative rather than temporary d. effects are slow to reverse e. these resources are global & mobile rather than just local f. so cooperation is slow to develop to protect these resources Can 7+ billion people live within the Earth s natural resource limits? If so, how? there is no such thing as a waste-free world - law of the conservation of matter can there be a pollution-free, resource-protective world? advances in science and technology, better recipes institutions (cooperation and rules) to protect resources - policies to promote sustainability & reduced resource extraction 35 6

Malthus essay on population (200 years ago)

Malthus essay on population (200 years ago) Human population growth would outstrip the earth s food-producing capabilities (disease, war and famine) Population (exponential) Food linear Exponential growth