DR.FRANSISCA MULYANTARI

Transcription

1 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RELATED TO DISASTER DR.FRANSISCA MULYANTARI RESEARCH CENTER FOR WATER RESOURCES AGENCY FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT M I N I S T R Y O F P U B L I C W O R K S Jl. Ir. H. Juanda No. 193, Bandung 40135, Phone: (022) , Fax: , pusat@pusair-pu.go.id, http:

2 Outline Source: River Gauging Station and Water Availability Drought Early Warning System Flood Early Warning System IWRM & DUWRMT Summary Source Reuter

3 DISTRIBUTION OF RIVER GAUGING STATIONS IN INDONESIA

4 WATER AVAIBILITY IN INDONESIA SUPER CRITICAL VERY CRITICAL CRITICAL MODERATELY CRITICAL SUFFICIENT WATER AVAIBILITY IN JAVA IS IN SUPER CRITICAL CONDITION 1. WATER AVAIBILITY IN JAVA: 1600 m3/capita/year (MINIMUM), PAPUA/MALUKU m3/capita/year (MAXIMUM). 2. JAVA ISLAND COMPARE TO INDONESIA: THE AREA OF JAVA IS ABOUT 7%, THE WATER AVAIBILITY IS ABOUT 4.5%, BUT THE POPULATION IS ABOUT 65% SOURCE: RESEARCH CENTER FOR WATER RESOURCES( )

5 FRAMEWORK OF DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (DEWS) SATELLITE DATA An Example of Dought Map for Bengawan Solo River Basin

6 The predicted rainfalls are transformed into predicted runoff through Rainfall-Runoff Model NAPEL Using Rainfall-Runoff Model to predict next week/month discharges EXAMPLE IN NAPEL RIVER GAUGING STATION

7 VALIDATION RAINFALL DATA BETWEEN TRMM AND 16 RAINFALL STATIONS (BMKG) AND 8 RAINFALL STATIONS (INDONESIAN POWER) IN THE BANDUNG AREA 4 TRMM cells 16 rainfall gauges Dry months (P < 150 mm) over the period TRMM = * BMKG, R2=0.673 Rainfall events > 2 mm, the period Jan 2002 June TRMM = * Indonesia Power, R2=0.3032

8 PILOT ACTIVITY USING SATELITE DATA FOR DROUGHT MONITORING (DEWS MODEL) SAGULING RESERVOIR Inflows to Saguling reservoir for 2009 Outflow from Reservoir Water levels in the Saguling reservoir for 2009 Inflow to Reservoir Saguling Outflow from Saguling reservoir for 2009 Measured (blue line) simulated (red line))

9 FRAMEWORK OF FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM SATELLITE DATA FFWS POSITIF TREND IN CITARUM NANJUNG WITH TAU KENDAL, CONFIDENCE INTERVAL 95%

10 FLOOD FORECASTING USING WATER LEVEL CORELATION AMONG BASE POINT NAPEL VS CEPU CEPU VS BOJONEGORO CEPU BOJONEGORO BABAT NAPEL KURO BOJINEGORO VS BABAT BABAT VS KURO Comparison Plot of Peak Levels among WL Stations in the Lower Solo Based on the water level at Napel, the water level at the downstream base points can be estimated

11 FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM BASED ON SATELLITE DATA SOURCE: Fukami,2009 IFAS model will be applied in Solo River Basin& Other River Basins for next plan FEWS model will be applied in Ciliwung- Cisadane River for Jakarta Flood

12 Themes Water Mondiaal Governance Water supply sanitation Security Food and ecosystems Climate CO 2 red. PusAir (RCWR) BKMG Urban Flood Lowland D. Operational management FEWS Jakarta DEWS lowland support sea level Jakarta Bay C. Development consistent meteorology, rivers, meteorology, rivers datasets climate scenario Jak. climate scenario lowl. j B. Transfer customized tools flood assessment, river basin assessm. flood forecasting drought forecasting A. Development - management structural cooperation partners Capacity building Long Term Cooperation Long Term Cooperation

13 IWRM AND DUWRMT Based on the Water Law number 7 / 2004, The Ministry of Public Works started to Implement the IWRM by setting up 31 RBOs (River Basin Organizations) in major river basins in 2006 The RBOs have the responsibility in various manner such as hydrology observation, water allocation, mitigation of water related disaster, construction, O&M, water conservation and supporting the increasing role of the community and improved information management system.

14 IWRM AND DUWRMT (CONT.) The Dissemination Unit for Water Resources Management and Technology (DUWRMT) which is supported by JICA was established since July, The DUWRMT is a joint project among Directorate General for Water Resources (DGWR) and Research Center for Water Resources (RCWR) DUWRMT goals are training to RBO staffs, develop guidelines and manuals, and counseling to RBO s in the subjects of hydrology, river basin water allocation management, integrated flood management, river area management, dam operation and management, river operation and management, water quality management, swamp management, and public participation.

15 SUMMARY The worst condition of water availability occurs in Java. Drought and Flood Early Warning System is required to reduce impact of disaster. Not all river basin is ungaugaed basin, therefore model based on satellite data is needed to be developed. IWRM approach started to be applied in Indonesia