The AdaptAlp Project: Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Water Regimes -Results and Strategies from AdaptAlp WP4

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Bertina Charles
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1 Bayerisches Landesamt für The AdaptAlp Project: Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Water Regimes -Results and Strategies from AdaptAlp WP4 Jane Korck, Bavarian Environment Agency

2 Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Water Regimes Results & Strategies from AdaptAlp WP4 1. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Alpine Space EU-Interreg Project AdaptAlp Results and strategies an overview 2. Water Regime Results and strategies a closer look 3. Summary and Conclusions

3 Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Water Regimes Results & Strategies from AdaptAlp WP4 Each time history repeats itself, the price goes up. Ronald Wright Collapse of the Ludwigsbrücke in Munich 1813

4 EU-Interreg Project AdaptAlp Strategic project within the framework of the INTERREG-IVB Alpine Space Programme Focused on climate related changes data availability and provision management and transboundary cooperation adaptation measures

5 Who? 16 partners 6 countries more than 130 scientists, experts and government representatives from 24 institutions. What? 3 years of research and collaboration on Climate change and water regime Natural hazard mapping Risk management New methods and recommendations tested in pilot projects and networking initiatives.

Access to results (reports and data) www.adaptalp.

6 Access to results (reports and data) Final Report Technical Report Common Strategic Paper Practitioners' Corner

7 Common Strategic Paper "... strategies and good practice examples for natural hazard management in a changing climate "

8 On the way to an "integrated" approach Flexibility: We must learn to be judicious when interpreting the evolving climate change data, and support the findings with expertise and proven tools that can keep our strategies and adaptation measures adjustable over the long term. Cooperation: We must realise that interacting with each other across the Alpine region, harmonising our data, and sharing our experiences greatly helps to reduce the costs and implementation time of adaptation measures. Education: We must see that educating key experts and risk-managers, the general public (and especially young people) is key to creating cooperation and communication. Dialogue: We must begin to discuss the expected risks and decide upon possible countermeasures in a risk dialogue between experts, affected people and decision-makers. AdaptAlp Common Strategic Paper Photo K. Taconis

Steps towards an adaptation strategy - Environment administration can deliver the facts and interpret the data - Actual decision-making depends on how politicians understand their mandate A) Basis

9 Steps towards an adaptation strategy - Environment administration can deliver the facts and interpret the data - Actual decision-making depends on how politicians understand their mandate A) Basis Climate Projections Discharge Projections Sound Scenarios B) Analysis Vulnerability Sectoral aspects Action options C) Decision Action options Adaptation strategy Science, projects e.g Interreg Politics Based on Schema der Drei Säulen der Entscheidungsfindung zu einer Anpassungsstrategie, BfG (2009)

10 Example from AdaptAlp WP6 "Risk Prevention & Management"

10 AdapAlp "Strategies" Selected by AdaptAlp partners from an initial list

+ Good practice example for each strategy.

example: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Working Group II on Impacts,

Europe (2008) EEA Technical report Regional climate change and adaptation

Directive (2009) and policy paper (2006) Alpine Convention Action Plan on

11 10 AdapAlp "Strategies" Selected by AdaptAlp partners from an initial list of 100 "action options" from European, national, regional and Alpine-specific publications. + Suggestions for the best approach from AdaptAlp perspective. + Good practice example for each strategy. The" initial list of 100 strategies" was based on numerous sources for example: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Working Group II on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (2007) EEA report on climate change impacts in Europe (2008) EEA Technical report Regional climate change and adaptation in the Alps (2009) EU Common Implementation Strategy for Water Framework Directive (2009) and policy paper (2006) Alpine Convention Action Plan on Climate Change in the Alps (2009) National and regional adaptation Strategies e.g. Bavarian Adaptation Strategy (2009) Expert groups on water and climate change in Germany (e.g. LAWA (2010))

12 "AdaptAlp" Adaptation Strategies (action options) 1. Improve public preparedness by encouraging participation in emergency planning. 2. Incorporate climate change adaptation into spatial planning. 3. Involve local stakeholders in a risk dialogue to define possible risk reduction measures. 4. Encourage cross-border networking in integrated risk management. 5. Encourage a 'common language' and harmonised procedures for hazard maps. 6. Increase the size of natural flood plains, floodwater conduits and basins. 7. Think of flood risk management in terms of watersheds, not organisational structures. 8. When planning for natural hazard risks consider all the risks within a defined area. 9. Use risk-management tools to explore social & economic impacts of adaptation measures. 10. Support the collection and interpretation of local climate change data.

"AdaptAlp" Adaptation Strategies (action options) 1. Improve public preparedness by encouraging participation in emergency planning. 2. Incorporate climate change adaptation into spatial planning. 3.

13 "AdaptAlp" Adaptation Strategies (action options) 1. Improve public preparedness by encouraging participation in emergency planning. 2. Incorporate climate change adaptation into spatial planning. 3. Involve local stakeholders in a risk dialogue to define possible risk reduction measures. 4. Encourage cross-border networking in integrated risk management. 5. Encourage a 'common language' and harmonised procedures for hazard maps. 6. Increase the size of natural flood plains, floodwater conduits and basins. water 7. Think of flood risk management in terms of watersheds, not organisational structures. 8. When planning for natural hazard risks consider all the risks within a defined area. 9. Use risk-management tools to explore social & economic impacts of adaptation measures. 10. Support the collection and interpretation of local climate change data.

Report on the State of the Alps "Water and water management issues" Photos: The Alps (left) NASA/GSFC

14 The Water Tower of Continental Europe The Alps supply a disproportionate amount of water to Europe's rivers For example, over 25% of the Danube's discharge originates from 10% of its river basin Source: Alpine Convention's 2nd Report on the State of the Alps "Water and water management issues" Photos: The Alps (left) NASA/GSFC The Danube and tributaries Inn and Ilz (right) Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Public Health

15 WP4 Water Regime Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Water regimes Selected results and strategies.. ALPINE RHINE INN UPPER SOČA ADDA (PO) DURANCE WP4 model regions - Alpine Space and 5 watersheds

16 Mean annual temperature Greater Alpine Region Bayerisches Landesamt für

18 The future as simulated: Change in mean seasonal precipitation Winter Summer

19 WP4 Water Regime Results and strategies a closer look at the pilot region Inn River basin

3 C* 1400 mm** 517 km Passau-Ingling (D) 739 m³/s*** 2626 m³/s*** Runoff & Precipitation 1970-2000 *Climate station mean

20 The Inn River basin Countries: Drainage area: Altitude Temperature: Precipitation: River length: Exit gauge: Average discharge: Mean annual flood: Switzerland, Austria, Germany, (Italy) km² 290 m 4000 m 6.3 C* 1400 mm** 517 km Passau-Ingling (D) 739 m³/s*** 2626 m³/s*** Runoff & Precipitation *Climate station mean ( ) ** According to long term water balance simulation of the study region performed with hydrological model WaSiM-ETH for *** Based on observed values for the period

22 Climate impact modelling chain Comparison with observations Possible impacts of Climate Change on the water regime

Changes for the near future (2021 2050) and distant future (2071 2100) compared with the period

23 Changes in monthly mean runoff (MoMQ) Average discharge: shift from summer to winter, flatter regime curve Hydrological change: WaSiM-ETH runoff simulation for the Inn River basin (gauge Passau-Ingling); Changes for the near future ( ) and distant future ( ) compared with the period (Statistical RCMs WETTREG green, GLOWA blue; Bias-corrected dynamical RCMs in red, purple or brown)

Passau-Ingling); Changes for the near future (2021 2050) and distant future (2071 2100) compared with the

24 Changes in monthly low flow (MoMNQ) Low-flow: "Common" winter events less severe, extreme (rare) low flow events more severe Hydrological change: WaSiM-ETH runoff simulation for the Inn River basin (gauge Passau-Ingling); Changes for the near future ( ) and distant future ( ) compared with the period (Statistical RCMs WETTREG green, GLOWA blue; Bias-corrected dynamical RCMs in red, purple or brown)

River basin (gauge Passau-Ingling); Changes for the near future (2021 2050) and distant future (2071 2100) compared

25 Changes in monthly high flow (MoMHQ) High flow: less agreement among models - increases (mainly winter), decreases (mainly summer*) *when discharge is generally high Hydrological change: WaSiM-ETH runoff simulation for the Inn River basin (gauge Passau-Ingling); Changes for the near future ( ) and distant future ( ) compared with the period (Statistical RCMs WETTREG green, GLOWA blue; Bias-corrected dynamical RCMs in red, purple or brown)

26 WP4 Water Regime Climate Change and Climate Impacts in the Alps Bayerisches Landesamt für Reports and more Practitioners' Corner AdaptAlp Dataset.. Design Events.. Climate Projections for the Alpine Space.. Inn Alpine Rhine Upper Soča Adda (Po) Durance (Rhône)

Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Water Regimes Selected results (AdaptAlp WP4)

storage and changing precipitation patterns An increase in low-flow severity

hazards linked to extreme precipitation could not be proven - but this is far

27 Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Water Regimes Selected results (AdaptAlp WP4) Hydrological projections show a change in the water regime due to decreasing snow storage and changing precipitation patterns An increase in low-flow severity towards the end of the century is projected for some regions Changes in natural hazards linked to extreme precipitation could not be proven - but this is far from an "all-clear" WP4 Summary Report Uncertainty in climate impact modelling chain remains

Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Water Regimes Proposed "strategies" (AdaptAlp WP4) Cyclical approach to planning any water related activity or construction potentially affected by the local or

28 Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Water Regimes Proposed "strategies" (AdaptAlp WP4) Cyclical approach to planning any water related activity or construction potentially affected by the local or regional climate Inclusion of new data and methods from the climate modelling community Improvement and harmonisation of monitoring networks Continued development of impact models to integrate all relevant processes Assessment of local vulnerability considering the whole river system Local communities can increase their resilience to natural hazards if the planning process takes the continuously improving knowledge base into account!

29 Thank You! Photo K. Taconis

Climate adaptation and natural hazard management in the Alpine Space Final Report

Climate adaptation and natural hazard management in the Alpine Space Final Report August 2011 Climate adaptation and natural hazard management in the Alpine Space Final Report August 2011 L This is a