Connectivities and Linkages within the Danube Basin

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1 Connectivities and Linkages within the Danube Basin Prof. Dr. Wolfram Mauser Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

2 Connectivities: Why important? Natural connectivities: Shape the biosphere and hydrosphere Define natural limitations on water use Determine the natural resiliance of the basin Will change through Global Change (both climate and socio-economic) Socio-Economic connectivities: Shape the water use requirements (among others): Hydropower Agriculture Irrigation Contribute to the potential pollution patterns Their Realisation defines the socio-economic resiliance of basins -> understanding of connectivities and linkages defines IWRM on the basin level What do we know about connectivities and linkages in the Danube basin?

3 Example: The Danube Basin Population in the Upper Danube Basin: 86 Mio 6% 3% 2%0% 0% 10% 4% 11% 4% 4% 3% second largest basin in Europe: 14 countries EU and non-eu member states ICPDR: International Commission on the Protection of the Danube River has long history of successful governance 27% 12% 12% 0% 0% 0% 1% Albania Austria Bosnia i Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Germany Hungary Italy Macedonia Moldova Poland Romania Serbia and Montenegro Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Ukraine

4 The Danube Sub-Basins Countries do not conincide with sub-basins!

5 Large rainfall contribution from the Mediterranean The e.g. Genua cyclone source: Stohl 2004 Europe, August 2002

6 The Danube Basin > 40% of the Danube water originates from the Alps (mainly Germany and Austria) which cover < 8% of the Danube basin Future changes in water availability there will strongly affect downstream countries!

7 Hydropower Import of Electricity [GWh] (2008) AT-D: D-AT: HUN-AT: 840 AT-HUN: 722 HUN-ROU: 72 HUN-ROU: 720 (data source: Eurostat)

8 The Danube Basin Different development paths Extraxted from DMSP multi temproal night light analysis Poland, Ukraine, Moldavia, Romania: 1992 = blue 1998 = green 2003 = red night light: White = no change Blue = decrease Green = slight peak 1998 Red = increase

9 The Danube Basin Total cattle population [1000 animals] (2003) (data source: Eurostat)

10 The Danube Basin Meat consumption [kg/head] (2007) (data source: Eurostat)

11 The Danube Basin Virtual water net import [10 6 m³/yr] ( )

12 Strong connectivities and linkages? but very few hard facts!

13 The future Changes and dynamic development: Environment: climate change, land use change, change in natural hazards Economy and Trade: dominated by the role of EU in globalization, EU paradigm is convergence, Demography: migration, both decrease and increase in population EU Danube Strategy as result of the 2008 EU Danube Conference: strengthen the function of the Danube region as the Blue Riband of European integration; focus on future inter-regional cooperation on areas with European added value; enhance the visibility at EU level through concrete signs of political action by the Danube countries.

14 Expected Climate Change Forget the 2 degrees goal! Royal Soc. Analysis of a +4 degree world Green, Blue: temp. increase by > 6 degree prec. increase by > 10 % Yellow: temp. increase by > 6 degree prec. decrease by > 10% Source: Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A , 85-98

15 Impacts and Adaptation: The GLOWA-Danube project Research Network: 8 University Institutes 2 Research Institutes 1 Commission 1 Administration Entity 2 Companies = ~ 45 Scientists Coordination: Social Sciences Meteorology Water Sciences Biology Informatics Coordination

16 GLOWA-Danube aims How will Global Change: Climate Change Demographic Change Economic Change affect the water resources of the Upper Danube? Perspecitive: next 50 years Investments Predictive Ability Scenarios Humans and Nature are affected! How best to adapt? Develop the necessary tools to answer the questions in collaboration with stakeholders

17 Regional Climate Change extrapolation from MM5-A1B regional REMO-A1B regional considered temperature Uncertainty in GLOWA- Danube IPCC-A1B regional In accordance with findings of the Royal Society

18 Regional Impacts of Climate Change Precipitation Discharge to Austria Regime Change: Summer maximum -> Spring Impact of anti-cyclic snow storage strongly reduced What would be the storage that compensates the lost snow storage?

19 Regional Impacts of Climate Change Reduction in hydropower production [%] Reference period:

20 The photosynthetic processes, which strongly determine the exchanges of CO2 and H2O with the atmosphere, take place on the leaf level, Leaves are part of a canopy, which grows, goes through diffe Regional Impacts of Climate Change Winter tourism capital inflow Days with more than 50 mm snow water equivalent between 20% and 50% of today s ski resorts will not be profitable anymore, especially the large, improvements in high mountain regions, but only small areas Winter tourism capital inflow

21 Regional Impacts of Climate Change Change in Cereal Acerage vs Baseline Liberalization Change in % < > 25 no data

22 Regional Impacts of Climate Change Change in Income vs Baseline Liberalization Change in % < > 25 no data

23 Regional Impacts of Climate Change Water delivery from Upper Danube to downstream Danube today: 1450 m³/s 2060: m³/s

24 Conclusions Global Change will strongly affect the Danube and will change the linkages: energy (hydropower cooling) navigation (low-flow) agriculture (yield - irrigation) tourism (loss of ski resorts) economy (convergence) How can linkages be used to manage change as transboundary challenge in a sustainable way? Questions like: Under conditions of less precipitation and more evapotranspiration: Is it better to use avaliable water upstream or downstream for irrigation? Transportation, ecological flows, virtual water Institutional arrangements to implement a fair and sustainable solution? Can we give answers to these questions? If not, why?

25 Context and Research Issues How can change in the Danube be managed in the EU-context (Danube Strategy?) Research issues: What data is needed to better understand hydrological connectivities and linkages e.g. in the Danube basin? How can it best be acquired in a uniform way? Which would be the right tools to simulate adaptation options in a complex basin like the Danube Integration of natural and socioeconomic sciences Scenarios Which would be the best set of science-policy interfaces within the EU-context? Transfer to Rhein/Main Transfer to Po? Transfer to Elbe? Transfer downstream