Sustainable Transport: How to Meet Local and Global Challenges? Sergio Sanchez The Clean Air Institute

Transcription

1 Sustainable Transport: How to Meet Local and Global Challenges? Sergio Sanchez The Clean Air Institute Guadalajara, Mexico November 10, 2008

2 Contents Introduction Challenges Opportunities Summary

3 The Clean Air Institute The Clean Air Initiative for Latin American Cities (CAI-LAC) was launched by the World Bank in In 1996, CAI-LAC was transferred to the Clean Air Institute a non profit organization. Mission: To improve air quality and reduce GHG emissions to protect and improve public health and welfare.

4 The Latin American and Caribbean Region 556 million inhabitants 175 million in % growth rate in Most urbanized region of developing world Outlook 2030: 175 million people in addition living in urban areas. 9 /10 of population living in cities Triple vehicle fleet Double energy use (most growth linked to transport sector

5 Sustainable Transport Challenges Economic Growth Transport Services Transport Impacts Environmental, Social and Economic Impacts

6 Global Anthropogenic and Transport GHG Emissions GHG Emission Share CO2 def. and decay of CO2 biomass, other, 3% 17% CO2 other comb., 44% CH4, 14% CO2 fossil fuel use; 57% CO2 transport 13% N2O, 8% F-gases, 1% 1992: UNFCCC 2005: Kyoto Protocol Transport Emissions in 2004: 6.6 Gton CO2-eq Source: IPCC 2007.

7 The transport sector is the fastest growing GHG source Between 1970 and 2004, global GHG emissions from the transport sector increased by 120% globally , CO 2 emissions doubled in China, Indonesia and South Korea. By 2020, soaring increases expected in China (143%), Indonesia (122%), India (91%) and Mexico (71%) compared with current levels (IEA 2006).

8 Transport Sector: Largest air pollution source in LAC Otras zonas metropolitanas de ALC tienen perfiles similares. Fuente: SMA, Gobierno del Distrito Federal, 2004b

9 Air Pollution is a common problem for cities all around the LAC region Air pollution is a serious problem in an increasing number of Latin American Cities. Ozone and Respirable Particles are major air pollution issues

10 Costs of air pollution Air pollution costs in LAC: 1-2% of GDP (WB 2007). In China, up to 3.8 of GDP (OCDE). Exposure to PM10: 960k premature deaths worldwide in 2000, mainly from cardiopulmonary diseases. Premature deaths per million inhabitants linked to PM10 could double to 2030 per million inhabitants. Loss of more than 25 million years of life (DALYs) in Premature deaths caused by ozone would quadruple worldwide by Developing countries most affected. In Latin America, more than 100 million inhabitants are exposed to air pollution levels exceeding WHO standards. Fuente: Cifuentes

11 Motorization In 2007, a total of 71.9 million new automobiles were sold worldwide: Markets in North America and Japan were stagnant, while those in South America and Asia grew strongly. Source: "2008 Global Market Data Book", Automotive News, p. 5

12 Traffic congestion: Among the worst in the world Sao Paulo 37 percent increase on registered vehicles since Record gridlock of 266 km on May Daily average trip: 1 hour, 40 minutes Congestion economic cost: 4.1 billion reais/year. Source: Sao Paulo Traffic Jams Mean Lost Business, Stress, Helicopters, Bloomberg, July 14, 2008 Mexico City Rougly 4 million vehicles. Vehicle fleet has doubled in the last 15 years regardless economic fluctuations. More than 300 thousand vehicles added to circulation each year, only 10% retires. Average speed at peak hour: less than 10 km/hr. Average time trip: hrs.

13 Car accidents are growing up 1999, million people were injured in road crashes worldwide (underestimated). Road crashes may be costing closer to 2 per cent of GNP per annum. Global cost in 1998: ~ US$520billion. Cost in the LMC regions: ~ US$65 billion. People killed in road crashes in the developing world continues to increase. The World Bank, DFID (UK) and TRL.

14 Source: Composed from various cities data compiled by the World Bank.

15 Public transport share is diminishing City Earlier year Public transport as a percentage of motorzied trips Last year Public transport as a percentage of motorzied trips Bangkok Buenos Aires Kuala Lumpur Mexico City Moscow Sao Paulo Seoul Tokyo Shanghai Warsaw

16 The vicious circle of urban transport RISE OF INFORMAL TRANSPORTATION INCREASED FARES, REDUCED FREQUENCIES POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION LESS DEMAND, DECREASING REVENUE, HIGHER COST PER PASS. CARS MORE ATTRACTIVE: GROWING MOTORIZATION TRANSPORT OPERATORS IN FINANCIAL CRISIS. POSSIBLE SUBSIDIES NEEDED PUBLIC TRANSPORTA-TION SLOWER AND LESS ATTRACTIVE MORE CONGESTION AND DELAYS LOW DENSITY URBAN EXPANSION INCREASED POLLUTION, ACCIDENTS and CONGESTION.

17 A complete analysis of external costs of transport is necessary for sound policy formulation Empirically external costs of climate change are not dominant form of external costs of transport, US 2000 Source, Kopp

18 How much does it cost to achieve global goals? To get global emissions in 2030 back to today s levels, the additional investment and financial flows (I&FF) required are estimated to be around US$ billion. The transport sector will require roughly 80 billion USD around 42-44% of this I&FF- (UNFCCC 2007).

19 Enhance Accessibility: Key Goal of Sustainable Transport Obtain goods and services Participate in social & economic activities Interact with people Accessibility Proximity put things near each other Canalization channel people s movements toward hubs and corridors, and put things near them Mobility - facilitate people to move around as much as possible Virtuallity use telecommunications to substitute for physical access

20 How can we break the vicious circle? Transporte de carga mas eficiente Centros de transferencia de carga Estandares de flota Regulacion clara sobre circulacion de camiones

21 Integrated transport, land use and air quality strategies Promote high-density land use along public transport corridors Prevent urban sprawl Revitalize urban centers

22 Improve public transportation Reorganize network layout High capacity modes on trunk corridors Intra- & inter-modal service integration

23 Travel demand management Congestion pricing Traffic calming Parking policies

24 Promotion of non-motorized transport Promote bike use Finance bikeways and pedestrian facilities Promote intermodality NMT & public transport

25 Emission Control Measures Vehicle technology Fuel quality Inspection Maintenance

26 Good Results Are Possible! TransMilenio 84 km trunk lines 1,021 articulated buses 504 km feeders 385 feeder buses 114 stations 1,498 bicycle parking spaces 1.4 million trips per day 70,109 tons CO2 eq. reduced in 2007 Positive land use impacts Transport Indicators Bogotá Private automobile 17% 8% Motorcycle 1% 3% Taxi 10% 12% Conventional bus 56% 42% Bus rapid transit 0% 19% Walk 7% 12% Bicycle 1% 3% Other 8% 1% Source: TransMilenio S.A., Rodriguez and Targa (2004); Mendieta and Perdomo (2007). Source: World Bank

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30 Major barriers There are important barriers that need to be overcome if we are to succeed in moving on to more sustainable transport patterns. Nations and cities need support to overcome substantial barriers, by Developing visions and policy frameworks, developing more integrated programs, strengthening and integrating transport agencies and landuse planning agencies, and Overcoming institutional fragmentation by improving mechanisms between transport, environment and urban planning.

31 Regional GEF Sustainable Transport and Air Quality Program Purpose Reduce GHG and improve air quality by supporting policy development and barriers removal. Four Projects A) Argentina, b) Brazil, c) Mexico and c) Regional. Financiamiento Up to $79.3 million USD Includes $20.8 million USD 4-year funding from the GEF.

32 Regional GEF Sustainable Transport and Air Quality Program Regional Project Cobenefits Assessment, Technical Assistance and Training, Mainstreaming, Technical Monitoring Freight Management Integrated Land Use Transport Planning Argentina Project Brazil Project Mexico Project Public Transport Improvement Non-Motorized Transport Cordoba Maipu Rosario Tucuman Belho Horizonte Campinhas Curitiba Sao Paulo Ciudad Juarez Leon Monterrey Puebla Demand Management

33 Establish right priorities in public expenditures

34 How to improve transport financing to meet global and global goals Recognizing transport, air quality, climate change and related issues as high priorities in local and national agendas and public budgets; Promoting the development of regulatory and institutional capacity as well as an appropriate policy framework to enhance compliance and enforcement; Developing projects and business models aiming to foster private involvement; Supporting the efforts of cities and countries to maximize funding opportunities and generation of local and national resources; and Fostering coordination among international donors to promote complementarities and efficiencies, avoid duplication, and ensure better use of resources. Scalating international transport finance.

35 Summary Enhance a comprehensive understanding of the transport sector global and local challenges. Develop and implement evaluation methods that appropriately rate benefits and costs of transport policies, considering Local air pollution External crowding costs, i.e. congestion Road safety Climate change effects

36 Summary Apply a co-benefits approach to achieve winwin solutions in the transport sector Foster a broad policy dialogue with key stakeholders to adopt and implement solutions. Target high political commitments. Improve policy instruments and scale up cooperation and overall finance to sustainable transport interventions.

37 Summary Use existing regional air pollution networks, climate networks, transport networks, intergovernmental agencies and agreements to link and share expertise among interest communities at different scales. Enhanced collaboration and communication between key climate change and air pollution stakeholders at international, national and local scales. Strengthen support to enhance and build visions, capacities and institutions at all levels.

38 Contact information Sergio Sanchez Executive Director Clean Air Institute 1 (202) x 30