Preliminary Cost and Performance Data Peaking Unit and Combined Cycle Technologies

Transcription

1 Preliminary Cost and Performance Data Peaking Unit and Combined Cycle Technologies Debra Richert William Frazier Tom Vivenzio April 25, 2016 New York Independent System Operator Installed Capacity Working roup A World of Solutions TM 0

2 Overview Purpose of this presentation is to provide updated, preliminary cost estimates for the peaking unit technologies selected for consideration and the combined cycle configurations being provided for informational purposes only The preliminary cost estimates provided herein will be further refined in the future to reflect data and costs that remain under development, including financial and other information being developed by Analysis roup (A) The final cost data, together with estimates of projected net Energy and Ancillary Services revenues, determined by A, will be used in developing recommendations for the peaking unit technology to be used for each ICAP Demand Curve A World of Solutions TM 1

3 Agenda 1. Overview 2. Key Assumptions 3. Total Capital Investments 4. Fixed and Variable O&M Costs 5. Performance Data A World of Solutions TM 2

4 Overview A World of Solutions TM 3

5 Overview Potential peaking unit technologies 2x0 E LMS100PA+ 1x0 Siemens ST6-5000F(5) 12x0 Wartsila 18V50DF 1x0 E 7HA.02 is being developed for informational purposes As previously indicated in the February 19, 2016 ICAPW meeting presentation, the Frame H unit in simple cycle configuration is not being considered as a potential peaking unit technology option for this reset because there are no units in this configuration with commercial operating experience Informational combined cycle (CC) configurations 1x1x1 Siemens ST6-5000F(5) 1x1x1 Siemens ST6-8000H Details on breakdown of capital investment costs, fixed and variable operation & maintenance (O&M) costs, performance, and air emissions are provided in the Appendix to this presentation. A World of Solutions TM 4

6 Overview Total investment costs for peaking unit technologies and informational combined cycle plants are based on dual fuel designs in all applicable zones Reductions in total investment costs for gas only design were determined for Load Zones C, F, and (Dutchess and Rockland Counties) Current estimates of electrical interconnection costs based on escalation (2.5% per year) of 2013 demand curve reset (DCR) costs. Lummus Consultants cost estimates are in development The NYISO planning study assessing the need for System Deliverability Upgrades (SDUs) is currently underway A World of Solutions TM 5

7 Key Assumptions A World of Solutions TM 6

8 All technologies are dual fuel capable Primary fuel natural gas Back-up fuel ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) Plant designs include ULSD storage based on the capability to provide one week of on-peak operations (6 days X 16 hours/day) Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for selected peaking unit technologies have confirmed ability to meet 45 second fuel transfer required in Load Zone J Although not being considered as a potential peaking unit technology for this reset, it is important to note that H class combustion turbines cannot meet the 45 second fuel transfer requirement Initial commissioning of peaking units assumes 40 hours of full load oil use for guarantee and emissions performance testing, 50 hours for combined cycle facilities Fixed O&M costs also include fuel oil testing costs for demonstrating capability plus costs of emissions testing on oil every five years Delivered price of ULSD in 2017 is assumed to be ~ $14/MMBtu* Key Assumptions *Source: EIA March 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook, costs of distillate fuel oil delivered to electric generating plants. A World of Solutions TM 7

9 Key Assumptions Aero and frame combustion turbine options include evaporative inlet air coolers All technologies include a selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system and carbon monoxide (CO) oxidation catalyst control technology required to meet New Source Review (NSR) Best Available Control Technology (BACT)/Lowest Achievable Emission Rate (LAER) standards Combined cycle plant configurations are dry cooled in all zones except Load Zone C. E LMS100PA+ facilities use dry cooling in all applicable zones Black start costs have not been included as those costs are recovered through a separate cost of service product Con Edison may require black start capability for new units in Load Zone J A World of Solutions TM 8

10 Assessment of site acreage requirements confirmed that assumptions used in 2013 DCR are still valid; site preparation costs were escalated from 2013 DCR (2.5% per year) Construction labor costs Construction crafts base pay and supplemental (fringe) benefits were obtained from the Prevailing Wage Rate Schedules New York State Department of Labor using the latest available data as of October 2015 Labor productivity factor 1.45 in Load Zone J; 1.4 in Load Zone K; and 1.2 in rest of state (ROS) 50 hour workweek Key Assumptions (continued) No allowance to attract labor (not applicable to union projects) A World of Solutions TM 9

11 Construction Financing Cost Assumptions Construction financing costs were based on construction drawdown schedules for each technology option and the 2013 DCR weighted average cost of capital (WACC)* Technology Project Duration (months) 2x0 LMS100PF+ 18 1x0 Siemens 5000F x0 Wartsila 18V50DF 25 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F5 29 1x1x1 Siemens 8000H 29 *Preliminary WACC values were taken from 2013 DCR and will be updated once the financial analysis is completed A World of Solutions TM 10

12 Emission Rate Assumptions 1 NO X (ppmvd) 2 CO (ppmvd) 2 VOC (ppmvd) 2 CO 2 (lb/mwhg) 3 Natural as Firing 2x0 LMS100PF ,020 1x0 Siemens 5000F ,130 12x0 Wartsila 18V50DF x1x1 Siemens 5000F x1x1 Siemens 8000H Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel Firing 2x0 LMS100PF ,360 1x0 Siemens 5000F ,560 12x0 Wartsila 18V50DF ,370 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F ,160 1x1x1 Siemens 8000H ,050 1) Emission rates assume an SCR/CO catalyst is installed on all technology options 2) Measured at 15% O 2 3) Based on full load, gross plant heat ISO conditions, HHV basis, clean and new condition. reenhouse (H) Best Available Control Technology (BACT) limits will be higher than the values in this table as heat rate degradation, site conditions and part load performance are considered in project-specific BACT determinations. A World of Solutions TM 11

13 Emission Reduction Credit Assumptions Emission reduction credit (ERC) requirements based on; 4,000 hours/year total permitted hours of operation for peaking unit technologies, and 8,760 hours/year for combined cycle plants 720 hours/year of permitted ULSD operation for both peaking unit technologies and combined cycle plants ERC price assumptions based on discussions with an emissions broker familiar with current ERC market in New York A World of Solutions TM 12

14 Total Capital Investments A World of Solutions TM 13

15 EPC Cost Components Equipment Equipment Spare Parts Construction Construction Labor & Materials Plant Switchyard Electrical Interconnection & Deliverability as Interconnect & Reinforcement Site Prep Engineering & Design Construction Mgmt. / Field Engr. Startup & Testing Startup & Training Testing Contingency A World of Solutions TM 14

16 Non-EPC Cost Components Percentage of EPC Owner's Costs Costs Permitting 1.0% Legal 1.0% Owner's Project Mgmt. & Misc. Engr. 1.5% Fuel Oil Testing Calculated Social Justice 0.2%* Owner's Development Costs 3.0% Financing Fees 2.0% Studies (Fin, Env, Market, Interconnect) 0.5% Emission Reduction Credits Calculated Financing (incl. AFUDC, IDC) EPC Portion Calculated Non-EPC Portion Calculated Working Capital and Non-Fuel Inventories** 1.0% Fuel Inventory*** Calculated * 0.9% in Load Zone J ** Includes initial inventory of consumables, working spare parts, and cash for the payment of operating expenses. *** Based on the capability to provide one week of on-peak operation (6 days x 16 hours/day) using ULSD A World of Solutions TM 15

17 as Interconnection Costs The natural gas lateral will need to provide on the order of 50 to 80 MMcf/day of natural gas for the peaking unit technologies, as well as for the combined cycle options being developed for informational purposes only The gas interconnection cost estimate assumes 4 miles of 16 diameter pipeline and a metering station Pipeline and metering station capital costs estimated to be $15.6 million (2015$) A World of Solutions TM 16

18 Electrical Interconnection Costs The current electrical interconnection costs are escalated from the 2013 DCR range from $10 to $14 million Lummus Consultants is preparing an independent estimate of the electrical interconnection costs Assumptions for cost estimate will include: 1 mile interconnect transmission line from plant to existing substation (Attachment Facility) 3 IS circuit breakers and associated electrical components/bulk materials installed in the existing substation (Normally considered System Upgrade Facilities) 20% cost contingency A World of Solutions TM 17

19 Capital Cost Estimates, Dual Fuel Capital Cost Estimates Dual Fuel 1, 2 (2015$ million) K - Long Island J - NYC (Dutchess) (Rockland) F Capital C Central Peaking Unit Technologies 2x0 E LMS100PF+ $333 $356 $301 $304 $287 $284 1x0 Siemens 5000F5 $272 $290 $243 $245 $229 $226 12x0 Wartsila 18V50DF $419 $439 $372 $375 $352 $344 Combined Cycle Plants 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F5 $714 $757 $605 $613 $557 $517 1x1x1 Siemens 8000H $754 $798 $643 $649 $590 $546 1) Capital Investment includes Engineering, Procurement, Construction Contract, Owner s Cost, Financing Costs, Working Capital and Fuel and Non-Fuel Inventories 2) Pursuant to stakeholder requests, Lummus will be developing costs for the E 7HA.02 combustion turbine configured as Simple Cycle T, however, this option will not be considered eligible for peaking plant technology at this time because none are currently operational (or in-service ) A World of Solutions TM 18

20 Capital Cost Estimates, Dual Fuel Capital Cost Estimates, Dual Fuel 1, 2 (2015$/kW) K - Long Island J - NYC (Dutchess) (Rockland) F Capital C Central Peaking Unit Technologies 2x0 E LMS100PF+ $1,760 $1,900 $1,600 $1,620 $1,540 $1,530 1x0 Siemens 5000F5 $1,240 $1,330 $1,110 $1,130 $1,050 $1,040 12x0 Wartsila 18V50DF $2,090 $2,190 $1,860 $1,880 $1,760 $1,720 Combined Cycle Plants 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F5 $2,170 $2,310 $1,850 $1,870 $1,710 $1,570 1x1x1 Siemens 8000H $1,960 $2,080 $1,680 $1,700 $1,550 $1,420 1) Capital Investment includes Engineering, Procurement, Construction Contract, Owner s Cost, Financing Costs, Working Capital and Fuel and Non-Fuel Inventories 2) Pursuant to stakeholder requests, Lummus will be developing costs for the E 7HA.02 combustion turbine configured as Simple Cycle T, however, this option will not be considered eligible for peaking plant technology at this time because none are currently operational (or in-service ) A World of Solutions TM 19

21 Reductions in Total Capital Investment for as Only Designs Reductions in Total Capital Investment for as Only Designs (2015$ million) (Dutchess) (Rockland) F Capital C Central Peaking Unit Technologies 2x0 E LMS100PF+ $12 $12 $12 $12 1x0 Siemens 5000F5 $19 $19 $18 $18 12x0 Wartsila 18V50DF $31 $31 $30 $26 Combined Cycle Plants 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F5 $24 $24 $23 $23 1x1x1 Siemens 8000H $29 $25 $24 $24 1) All dual fuel options include costs of the required SCR/CO catalyst emission controls required to meet NSR BACT/LAER regulatory requirements 2) Removal of SCR/CO catalyst in Load Zones C, F and (Dutchess) would further reduce total capital investments in each such zone by approximately $25 to $27 million A World of Solutions TM 20

22 Fixed and Variable O&M Costs A World of Solutions TM 21

23 Operating & Maintenance (O&M) Assumptions Assessment of staffing for the peaking unit technologies confirmed that assumed staffing levels used in the 2013 DCR remain appropriate Staffing for combined cycle plants was reduced from 23 full time equivalents (FTE) used in the 2013 DCR to 20 FTE in this DCR Plant staff average labor rate and benefits escalated from values used in the 2013 DCR Site leasing costs escalated from values used in the 2013 DCR (2.5% per year) Used same methodology for calculating property tax and insurance as used in the 2013 DCR Variable O&M (VOM) cost components in $/MWh obtained from Lummus Consultants power plant cost & performance models updated in late VOM includes major maintenance (including catalyst replacement), water, ammonia, and other chemicals and consumables. A World of Solutions TM 22

24 Fixed O&M Estimates Fixed O&M Estimates (2015$/kW-yr) 1 K - Long Island J - NYC (Dutchess) (Rockland) F Capital C Central Peaking Unit Technologies 2x0 E LMS100PF+ $39 $120 $35 $35 $32 $31 1x0 Siemens 5000F5 $31 $92 $28 $28 $24 $25 12x0 Wartsila 18V50DF $51 $145 $45 $45 $39 $38 Combined Cycle Plants 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F5 $53 $153 $47 $47 $42 $39 1x1x1 Siemens 8000H $47 $137 $42 $42 $38 $35 1) Based on degraded ICAP capacity rating as stated in the Appendix to this presentation and shown on slide 28 A World of Solutions TM 23

25 Variable O&M Estimates Variable O&M Estimates (2015$/MWh) 1 K - Long Island J - NYC (Dutchess) (Rockland) F Capital C Central Peaking Unit Technologies 2x0 E LMS100PF+ $5.4 $5.4 $5.3 $5.3 $5.2 $5.2 1x0 Siemens 5000F5 $0.32 $0.32 $0.32 $0.32 $0.32 $ x0 Wartsila 18V50DF $8.4 $8.5 $8.2 $8.2 $7.9 $7.9 Combined Cycle Plants 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F5 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $0.9 $1.2 1x1x1 Siemens 8000H $1.0 $1.0 $0.9 $0.9 $0.9 $1.2 1) Based on natural gas firing and degraded average summer/winter capacity rating. Oil-fired VOM costs are presented in the Appendix to this presentation. A World of Solutions TM 24

26 Variable Costs per Start Variable Costs per Start (2015$/Start) 1 K - Long Island J - NYC (Dutchess) (Rockland) F Capital C Central Peaking Unit Technologies 2x0 E LMS100PF+ n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1x0 Siemens 5000F5 $11,200 $11,300 $10,900 $10,900 $10,600 $10,500 12x0 Wartsila 18V50DF n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Combined Cycle Plants 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F5 $11,200 $11,300 $10,900 $10,900 $10,600 $10,500 1x1x1 Siemens 8000H $17,000 $17,100 $16,400 $16,500 $16,000 $15,900 1) Based on natural gas firing A World of Solutions TM 25

27 Performance Data A World of Solutions TM 26

28 Average Degraded Net Plant Capacity ICAP Average Degraded Net Plant Capacity ICAP (MW) 1 K - Long Island J - NYC (Dutchess) (Rockland) F Capital C Central Peaking Unit Technologies 2x0 E LMS100PF x0 Siemens 5000F x0 Wartsila 18V50DF Combined Cycle Plants 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F x1x1 Siemens 8000H ) Based on natural gas firing, with evaporative coolers in service. Average degraded net plant capacity at other ambient conditions are presented in the Appendix A World of Solutions TM 27

29 Average Degraded Net Plant Heat Rate ICAP Average Degraded Net Plant Heat Rate ICAP (Btu/kWh) 1 K - Long Island J - NYC (Dutchess) (Rockland) F Capital C Central Peaking Unit Technologies 2x0 E LMS100PF+ 9,260 9,320 9,260 9,260 9,260 9,260 1x0 Siemens 5000F5 10,310 10,380 10,300 10,300 10,310 10,310 12x0 Wartsila 18V50DF 8,380 8,380 8,380 8,380 8,380 8,380 Combined Cycle Plants 1x1x1 Siemens 5000F5 6,930 6,960 6,930 6,930 6,940 6,850 1x1x1 Siemens 8000H 6,750 6,790 6,760 6,760 6,760 6,650 1) Based on natural gas firing, with evaporative coolers in service, higher heating value (HHV) basis. Average degraded net plant heat rates at other ambient conditions are presented in the Appendix A World of Solutions TM 28

30 Contact Information William Frazier Principal Consultant Lummus Consultants International, Inc. Debra Richert Director Lummus Consultants International, Inc. Phone: Fax: Thomas Vivenzio Senior Principal Consultant Lummus Consultants International, Inc. Phone: Fax: Phone: Fax: A World of Solutions TM 29