NRC Research in Emergency Preparedness National Radiological Emergency Preparedness Conference April 11, 2017

Transcription

1 NRC Research in Emergency Preparedness National Radiological Emergency Preparedness Conference April 11, 2017 Todd Smith, PhD Nuclear Regulatory Commission Jonathan Barr Nuclear Regulatory Commission Doug Hoell The Cadmus Group, Inc.

2 Topics NRC Research in EP Study of Offsite Response Organization (ORO) Capabilities and Practices in the Intermediate Phase of a Radiological Emergency Response Modeling EP in the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) Study of Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) 2

3 ORO Study The NRC seeks to better understand offsite response organization (ORO) capabilities and practices for protective actions in the intermediate phase of emergency response to a nuclear power plant (NPP) incident. Study Areas Identification of radiological hot spots Relaxation of evacuation and relocation orders Food condemnation or embargo Drinking water safety Beyond the 10-mile emergency planning zone (EPZ) Notable observations 3

4 ORO Study Methodology involved interviews with states, and review of after action reports (AARs) and state radiological emergency plans Characteristic States with Interviewed Percentage of NPPs States NPP States Number of States % Number of Operating NPP Sites % Number of Operating Reactors % Population 264,750,000 88,890, % Area (square miles) 1,760, , % 4

5 ORO Study Identification of Radiological Hot Spots Intent and planning Resources Relaxation of Evacuation and Relocation Orders Criteria for relocation, reentry, and return Prioritization for reentry Public information Food Condemnation or Embargo Criteria and establishment of boundaries Disposition 5

6 ORO Study Water Criteria for potential drinking water contamination Planning, exercises, recent experience Beyond the 10-Mile EPZ Planning considerations Recent experience with evacuations Notable Observations in the Intermediate Phase Leveraging technology Developing partnerships Addressing needs of vulnerable populations and household pets 6

7 ORO Study NRC will publish NUREG/CR report in 2017 Study Results Identify clear trends on ORO capabilities and practices Share notable observations Provide confidence for modeling assumptions for use in radiological consequence studies 7

8 What is MACCS? MACCS MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System Probabilistic analysis tool for developing realistic estimates of consequences of nuclear power plant incidents Developed by NRC and Sandia National Laboratory Extensive use by NRC and domestic and international organizations How is MACCS used? Cost-benefit analysis Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Consequence studies Risk-informed decision-making 8

9 MACCS Radiation Exposure Pathways Modeled in MACCS 9

10 MACCS Food Chain Data Source Term Emergency Phase Intermediate Phase Long-Term Phase Typical Duration ~ 1 week Weeks to years Months to years Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Protective Actions Evacuation Sheltering Relocation KI Ingestion Relocation Interdiction Decontamination Condemnation Exposure Pathways Cloudshine Groundshine Inhalation Skin Deposition Groundshine Inhalation of resuspended materials Groundshine Inhalation of resuspended materials Food & water ingestion Weather Data Site Data Dose Conversion Factors Output Measures Health Effects Land Contamination Economic Costs Displaced Population 10

11 Emergency Phase Modeling MACCS Protective actions (evacuation, sheltering, relocation, KI) Cohort timeline (general population, schools, special facilities, evacuation tail, shadow evacuees, non-evacuees) How parameters are informed Evacuation time estimate (ETE) studies and traffic simulation codes MACCS modeling best practices Discussions with state and local authorities 11

12 MACCS Evacuation Modeling Network Evacuation Model Keyhole Evacuation Model 12

13 MACCS Potential use of ORO Study Results ORO Study Topics Identification of Radiological Hot Spots Beyond the 10-Mile EPZ Relaxation of Evacuation and Relocation Orders Food Condemnation or Embargo Water Related MACCS Model Early Phase Relocation Models Early Phase Intermediate Phase Relocation and Habitability Assessment Long-term Phase Agricultural Restrictions Long-term Phase Societal Dose Assessment 13

14 MACCS How to obtain MACCS 14

15 ETE Study Applied research study to examine topics associated with the modeling and simulation of evacuations and independent verification of the NRC s methodology for ETE development. Study Areas Shadow evacuation analysis Distance of evacuation travel Manual traffic control Determination of variable importance 15

16 Who is Performing the Study? ETE Study Transportation and evacuation experts at Louisiana State University Timeline 3 year study (August 2015 August 2018) Methodology Model 3 representative sites (small, medium, large population and representative roadway networks) Develop micro-simulation models using commercial software Produce generalized results that reveal effects of the study variables (impact to clearance times) 16

17 Model Comparison ETE Study TYPICAL EPZ POPULATION MODEL EPZ POPULATION MODEL INTERSECTIONS 0-10 MILE 0-10 MILE 20% SHADOW TRAFFIC SIGNAL STOP SIGN INTERSECTIONS INTERSECTIONS SMALL 0 50, MEDIUM 50, , ,000 30, LARGE 200, , ,000 60,

18 ETE Study Task 1: Impact of Shadow Evacuation Sensitivity of shadow participation rate on clearance times Task 2: Distance of Evacuation Travel Sensitivity of model extent on clearance times Assess travel times outside of EPZ Task 3: Manual Traffic Control (MTC) Simulated MTC vs. signalized intersection control Task 4: Parameters of Importance Sensitivity analysis to determine importance of input and process variables to clearance times 18

19 Benefits of the ETE study ETE Study Independent verification of NRC s methodology (NUREG/CR-7002) Technical basis for potential enhancements to guidance document Enhance understanding of evacuation dynamics (knowledge management) Enhance NRC s regulatory function 19

20 Points of Contact Todd Smith, PhD Emergency Preparedness Specialist U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (301) Jonathan Barr Senior Reactor Systems Engineer U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (301)