Using Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Studies on Vulnerability and Adaptation in Brazil and South America (GOF-UK-CPTEC)

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1 Using Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Studies on Vulnerability and Adaptation in Brazil and South America (GOF-UK-CPTEC) Jose A. Marengo CPTEC/INPE Foreign & Commonwealth Office

2 Project strategy summary To provide high resolution climate change scenarios in the three hot spots (most populated and economically important basins in South America: Amazon, Sao Francisco and Parana-La Plata) in South America for development of studies that should lead to raising awareness among government and policy makers in assessing climate change impact, vulnerability and in designing adaptation measures.

3 Project Issues Addressed by GOF-UK-CPTEC Characterization of the impacts of interannualinterdecadal climate variability and human-induced change on hydrologic processes; Determination of the impacts of these climate and hydrologic variations on water resources for hydroelectric operations, agricultural systems, and human health and activities; Enhancement of the capabilities of regional operational and research prediction systems in the basin, both in terms of science and infrastructure- Capacity building; Water Energy Climate Health Agriculture Combination of efforts of science and policy for developing successful strategies to cope with climate and hydrological changes, at national and regional level in South America Human Activity

4 Increase in total rainfall in southern Brazil ( ) Causes: Natural climate variability? land-use changes? increase in the concentration of GHG?. PROBIO-GOF UK project (2007)

5 Southeastern South America: Increase in the frequency of intense rainfall eventst ( ) Data gap? R10 Number of days with rainfall above 10 mm/day

6 Increase in the frequency of warm nights in Southeastern Brazil ( ) Data gap? Tn90-Minimum temperature on the 90th percentile of the distribuiton

7 PROBIO-IPCC Global models ised: IPCC TAR (HadCM3)-Version 1 Downscaling Modelos do IPCC: HadCM3 Climatology IPCC Scenarios A2, B2 Regional models Climate anomalies (futurepresent), from regional mulimodel ensemble Time slices , A2, B2 Climatology regional model RegCM3 HadRM3 Eta CCS Maps of climate anomalies, and indices of extremes (Regional multimodel ensemble) , A2, B2

8 Annual rainfall anomalies (%) [( )- ( )] Seco B2 B2 A2 A2 Annual air temperature anomalies (C) [( )- ( )] Quente Quente B2 B2 A2 A2

9 Warm nights index (TN90) [( )- ( )] HadRM , B , A2 Increase in the frequency of warm nights until 2100

10 Intense rainfall index ( R10) [( )- ( )] HadRM , B , A2 Increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events until 2100

11 Consecutive dry days index (CDD) [( )- ( )] HadRM , B , A2 Increase in the frequency of consecutive dry days until 2100

12 Vulnerability: case study in Brazil: Hydroelectric sector and its vulnerability to Climate change (INPE/CPTEC-WWF-UFRJ-ELETROBRAS) Climatehydrological modeling Documentation on current exposure to climate risks/hazards Assessments of actual adaptative capacity Actual vulnerability Future Vulnerability Assessments of changes in future exposition to climatic risks Assessments of future adaptative capacity Socio-economical studies Implementation of measurements of adaptation to climate change and reduction of vulnerability

13 change of annual runoff Illustrative map of future climate change impacts on freshwater which are a threat to the sustainable development of the affected regions. Background map: Ensemble mean change of annual runoff, in percent, between present ( ) and for the SRES A1B emissions scenario

14 Distribution of fresh water use in the world: Brazil is highly dependent on hydroelectricity Sooroshian et al (2003)

15 Brazil: Eletricity matrix - Hydroelectric potential North (Amazonia) Potential: 111,396 MW Explored: 8.9% Brazil Potential: 258,410 MW Explored: 28.2% Northeast Potential: 26,298 MW Explored: 40.4% Southeast-West Central Potential: 78,716 MW Explored: 41.0% South Potential: 42,030 MW Explored: 47.8%

16 Brazilian Electric Matrix Distribution of Water Resources and Population in Brazil (%) Thermoelectric Hydroelectric N NE WC SE S Water Resources Population

17 Brazil Electric Matrix Brazil holds a clean electric matrix: Mostly Hydroelectricity (70%) Low emissions: 20 Millions TM of CO2 2,3% of total emissions However: Offer and demand Vulnerability to climate variability (e.g. Drought of 2001 and blackouts) 50% of new energy comes from thermoelectric plants Hydreletric Plants: Expansion into Amazonia: Big projects (e.g Madeiras) Huge social and environmental impacts Risks of nuclear energy in Brazil 75% 9% 1%0%3% 2% 3% 2% 5% Imports Small Hydro Wind Biomass Nuclear Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro

18 Ongoing Activity INPE/CPTEC-GOF UK-WWF: Hydrologic and Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the generation of Hydroeletricity in Brazil: Application to the Madeira, Paraná, São Francisco, Tocantins and Xingu River Basins Hydrology component Climate component Future climate change scenarios: High resolution in space and time (50 km-50 km lat long, daily) Time slices: , from 3 regional models (PRECIS, Eta CCS, RegCM3) Temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind Hydrological Analyses Reservoir Operations modeling Streamflow Energy Economic and Energy Market Analyses Products New operation criteria, Energy and environemtal policies

19 Activities are divided in years (Starting in July 2005) Year 1) Development of regional climate change scenarios using the set of global and regional climate models for climatology scenarios, complementing the work that has been done as part of PROBIO- GEF project in Although preparation of models will happen mainly during the first year, feedback on the impacts will be provided during following years in order to account for uncertainties. Year 2) Continuation of development of regional climate change scenarios using the set of global and regional climate models. Dissemination of information about the designed scenarios within the scientific community. Interactions with user communities and application of models and strategies using climate change scenarios Year 3) Targeted campaign to disseminate scientific research to a wider non- scientific audience, raising awareness of policy and decision makers about climate change impact, vulnerability analyses and design of adaptation measures in the region. Hot spots: Semiarid NE Brazil, Amazonia, Upper Parana basin

20 Special Brazilian Congress Committee on Climate Change; National Climate Change Commission; National Environemntal Comission Detection and Atribution (IPCC WG1, INPE s Report) Impacts assessment and vulnerability (IPCC WG2) Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Brazilian Forum on Climate Change National Plan on Climate Change Brazil-Climate Impacts Program Adaptation (IPCC WG2) Mitigation (IPCC WG3) Public environmental policies, combat to desertification and deforestation, reduction of GHG emissions, vulnerability and climate risk assessments and zoning (sectorial),adaptation measurements, mitigation strategies