Nuclear Dynamics in Africa: A Russian View

Transcription

1 Nuclear Dynamics in Africa: A Russian View Anton Khlopkov, Director, Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) Pretoria, South Africa, May 5, 2016

2 Presenta(on overview Part I: Africa s nuclear plans Part II: Russia s nuclear export Part III: Prospects for Russia-Africa nuclear cooperation Part IV: Q&A, comments 2

3 Part I: Africa s Nuclear Energy Plans 3

4 Key Issues in Africa s Energy Sector Low access and insufbicient capacity Only about 24% of the population of sub- Saharan Africa has access to electricity. Excluding South Africa, the entire installed generation capacity of sub-saharan Africa is only 28 Gigawatts, equivalent to that of Argentina. Poor reliability - African manufacturing enterprises experience power outages on average 56 days per year. As a result, Birms lose 6% of sales revenues. Where backup generation is limited, losses can be as high as 20%. High costs - Power tariffs in most parts of the developing world fall in the range of US$0.04 to US$0.08 per kilowatt-hour. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the average tariff is US$0.13 per kilowatt-hour. In countries dependent on diesel-based systems, tariffs are higher still. Given poor reliability, many Birms operate their own diesel generators at two to three times the cost with attendant environmental costs. Nuclear energy is among available options - Over 45 countries are actively considering embarking upon nuclear power programmes. Among them are: Algeria, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda (more than 25% from the total number). Nuclear energy contributes about 5% to South Africa s energy mix. Sources: The World Bank, IAEA 4

5 Africa s Nuclear Energy Plans Algeria: to establish 2,400 MW of nuclear power (2 units) by 2030 Egypt: 4,800 MW (4 units) by 2030 Ghana: to operate the Birst nuclear power reactor (1,000 MW) by 2025 Kenya: 4,000 MW (4 units) by 2033 Morocco: to operate the Birst nuclear power reactor by 2030 Nigeria: 4,000 MW (4 units) by 2027 South Africa: to add 9,600 MW (6-8 units) of nuclear power by

6 Africa and Nuclear Technologies: Overview 55 countries (54 AU members + Morocco) Research Reactors 5 in operation (Algeria 2, Egypt 1, Morocco 1, South Africa 1) (2016) Other types of nuclear research installations in operation Ghana, Nigeria (miniature neutron source), and Libya (critical assembly) (2016) 1 NPP, 2 Nuclear Power Reactors (Koeberg NPP, South Africa) 4 Uranium Producers (Malawi, Namibia, Niger, South Africa) ~ 15% of global production (2014) 2 out of 10 largest-producing uranium mines are in Africa (SOMAIR, Niger ~5%; Langer Heinrich, Namibia ~4%) (2014) Mo-99 ~10% of global production (South Africa, Safari-1) (2013) 6

7 Africa and Nuclear Nonproliferation South Africa is the only country in the history that has gave up its nuclear weapons program and has dismantled its (small) nuclear arsenal Pelindaba Treaty - African Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty (Signed in Cairo on April 11, 1996; entered into force on July 15, 2009) Role of African diplomats in the Bield is growing Thomas Markram (UNODA), Jean Du Preez (CTBT), Abdul Samad Minty, (IAEA DG candidate, 2009) 7

8 Part II: Russia s nuclear export 8

9 Russia in the World Market Uranium production ~ 7% Uranium conversion ~ 20% Enrichment ~ 45% Nuclear fuel ~ 17% NPPs construction ~ 25% SNF reprocessing ~ 10% SC Rosatom Export Sales (2015) ~ USD 6,4 bn. Foreign orders to SC Rosatom up to 2030 (2015) > 110 bln. 9

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14 Nonproliferation/ nuclear security standards of intergovernmental agreements (1) Russia will supply nuclear fuel in a form of manufactured complete fuel assemblies for the whole period of nuclear power plant operation Spent nuclear fuel will be returned to Russia for temporary storage and reprocessing AAA country should ensure that the nuclear fuel will be used exclusively at the agreed nuclear power plant Russia will ensure the training of the AAA country specialists in the Bield of NPPs operation, maintenance, as well as in the Bield of regulation 14

15 Nonproliferation/ nuclear security standards of intergovernmental agreements (2) Nuclear and non-nuclear materials, and equipment received within the framework of the agreement shall not be used for the manufacture of nuclear weapons or for other military purposes; shall be under IAEA Safeguards; shall not be re-exported or transferred to the third parties without the written consent of the Russian Federation; shall not be modibied, including further enrichment of LEU supplied in the form of nuclear fuel and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel; shall be provided with physical protection at a level not lower than the levels recommended by INFCICR/225/Rev.5. 15

16 Part III: Prospects for Russia-Africa nuclear coopera(on 16

17 Areas for Russia-Africa nuclear cooperation Uranium production: Rosatom Operates Mkuju River Uranium Mine development project in Tanzania Uranium enrichment: Rosatom supplies LEU for Koeberg NPP fuel fabrication Nuclear power plant construction: Rosatom conducts negotiations with a few countries of the region, including Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa Nuclear fuel supply and SNF removal: Future option for power reactors of Russian and western design, located in the region Personnel training: Agreement signed between NWU (RSA) and ROSATOM-CICE&T (Russia) (2016) Research Reactors construction: Egypt, Libya (built), Ethiopia, South Africa (consultations) Assistance in legislative and regulatory basis development: upon request 17

18 Part IV: Q&A, comments Contact informa(on: Anton Khlopkov Director, Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) +7 (495)