National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin. 5 June 2012
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1 National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 5 June 2012
2 Outline Welcome Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center Streamflows and groundwater Chris Smith, USGS Apalachicola Salinity Jenna Wanat, ANERR Reservoir status and outlook Bailey Crane, USACE Seasonal outlooks David Zierden Streamflow forecasts Todd Hammil, SE River Forecast Center Summary and Discussion
3 New Climate and Weather Page
4 Current drought status from Drought Monitor
5 7-day Rainfall Totals
6 Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Past 180 days
7 Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Brief: Current:
8 Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current:
9 Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega ( ) Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( )
10 Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )
11 Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )
12 Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)
13 Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve East Bay Cat Point Dry Bar
14 Daily Average Salinity at East Bay Bottom 45 90th percentile-highest 76-90th percentile 25-75th percentile 10-24th percentile lowest-10th percentile Salinity (ppt) /1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 12/2 12/9 12/16 12/23 12/30 Day of the Year
15 Daily Salinity at Cat Point th percentile-highest 76-90th percentile 25-75th percentile 10-24th percentile lowest-10th percentile Salinity (ppt) /1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 12/2 12/9 12/16 12/23 12/30 Day of the Year
16 Daily Salinity at Dry Bar 45 90th percentile-highest 76-90th percentile 25-75th percentile 10-24th percentile lowest-10th percentile Salinity (ppt) /1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 12/2 12/9 12/16 12/23 12/30 Day of the Year
17 40 Mean Monthly River Flow vs. Mean Monthly Salinity at Dry Bar (Jan 1993 Mar 2012) Salinity (ppt) y = e -2E-05x R² = Flow(ft 3 s -1 )
18 5-Day Precipitation Forecast
19 3-Month Outlook Precipitation Temperature
20 U.S. Drought Outlook
21
22 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Colorado State University (Klotzbach and Gray): 10 Named Storms (12 is normal) 4 Hurricanes (6.5 is normal) 2 Major Hurricanes (2 is normal) NOAA Alberto 70% chance of 9-15 named storms 4-8 Hurricanes 1-3 Major Hurricanes
23 Formation Regions and Landfalls
24 Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal West Point Columbus Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown
25 15% 14% 71% Lake Lanier Inflows 5% 4% Whitesburg Above Normal Near Normal 91% West Point 24% 5% 71% Lovejoy Carsonville Below Normal Columbus WF George 5% 8% 87% Albany Columbus Woodruff 2% 5% 93% Blountstown
26 Summary Although Tropical Storm Beryl brought heavy rains to NE Florida and SE Georgia, very little fell in the ACF River Basin so drought continues throughout most of the basin, with significant areas classified as extreme or exceptional Streamflows in the upper basin are in the range of 10 to 24% of historical observations, whereas streamflow levels in the lower basin are below any previous observations Groundwater in Miller County, GA remains in the range of the lowest 10% of historic observations Salinity levels in Apalachicola Bay are near 15 ppt at East Bay Bottom, 25 ppt at Cat Point, and 30 ppt at Dry Bar
27 Summary The 5-day outlook for rainfall is fair, with about 2 inches in the southern part of the basin but less than 1 inch in the northern part of the basin. Current ENSO conditions are neutral, but their remains about a 50% chance that El Niño will develop in the fall Both Colorado State U and NOAA forecast similar numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes for this summer, but the forecast does not predict where or whether these storms will make landfall The streamflow forecast for the next 1 and 3 months continues to show a high probability that streamflows will remain below normal
28 References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Chris Smith, USGS Jenna Wanat, ANERR Bailey Crane, US ACE Todd Hammil, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, UF/SECC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring Groundwater monitoring
29 Thank you! Next briefing 14 June 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at New Climate and Weather Page Please send comments and suggestions to:
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