Renewable energy and mini-grids in Shan State: technologies, possibilities, and framework

Transcription

1 Renewable energy and mini-grids in Shan State: technologies, possibilities, and framework Taunggyi, Shan State, Myanmar 9 July, 2016 Chris Greacen, Ph.D.

2 A Myanmar electricity vision Energy access for all Minimal social and environmental impacts from electricity generation Reliable Affordable Contributes to an economy based on Shan State & Myanmar s deep natural beauty and cultural richness Slide 2

3 Overview Energy Efficiency Technology Costs Policy & Regulation On-grid renewables Off-grid renewables Slide 3

4 Definitions Distributed generation employs small-scale technologies to produce electricity close to end users. Renewable energy: energy that is collected from resources which are naturally replenished on a human timescale, such as sunlight, wind, rain, biomass, geothermal heat. Slide 4

5 Slide 5

6 Temperature trends 1950 to

7 Definitions Off-grid: not connected to the national electric network On-grid: connected to the national electric network Mini-grid: small-scale generation, supplying electricity to multiple customers via a limited distribution grid. Minigrid Slide 7

8 Resources can be marshalled Technical assistance Technology Finance Slide 8

9 TECHNOLOGY: EFFICIENCY FIRST Slide 9

10 Energy Efficiency Insulate roofs to keep cool in 1.4 to 4 US cents per kwh T-5 Source: The World Bank, Impact of Energy Conservation, DSM and Renewable Energy Generation on EGAT s PDP, 2005

11 California Advancing Energy Efficiency

12 Pacific Northwest in USA: Energy efficiency to meet over 60% of new demand, renewables most of rest Sixth Plan Resource Portfolio 12

13 TECHNOLOGY: ON GRID RENEWABLES Slide 13

14 Renewables share of global electricity Renewables accounted 28.9% of global power generation capacity and 23.7% of global electricity demand Renewables made up for 60% of net additions to global power capacity Total RE power capacity: 1,849 GW, an increase of almost 9% over 2014

15 15

16 Binding commitments to renewables 20% 33% 50%

17 The World s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant Ivanpah Solar Thermal Project 370 MW - San Bernardino County, CA

18 World s Largest Thin Film Solar PV Project Desert Sunlight Solar Project MW - Riverside County, CA

19 World s Largest Wind Project Alta Wind Energy Center 1.55 GW - Kern County, California

20 Solar in Thailand Over 2.5 GW as of 2015 Slide 20

21 Solar PV Capacity added: +50 GW Total capacity: 227 GW Annual PV market in 2015 was nearly 10 times the world s cumulative solar PV capacity of a decade earlier Myanmar installed capacity all power plants 3.5 GW

22 Low solar bid prices ( ) Expected natural gas based generation cost in Myanmar (105 kyat/kwh = 8.8 US cents) (Deloitte, 2016) Solar PV, unsolicited bid ACO US 13 cents/kwh 800 MW solar plant in Dubai US 2.99 cents per kwh Zambia solar PV bidding winner 25 year fixed price US 6.02 cents/kwh 50 MW project. World Bank Scaling Solar program Slide 22

23 Solar farm lead time Pre-construction Site selection Resource evaluation Interconnection Permitting 6 to 36 months PPA negotiation Construction Module supply agreement Constructing solar farm 3 to 12 months

24 Thai electric load profile Solar output Slide 24

25 Wind power in Thailand 235 MW as of May 2015 Cost of production as low as 6 US cents/kwh

26 Wind Power Wind power was the leading source of new power generating capacity in Europe and the United States in 2015, and the second largest in China Wind power is playing a major role in meeting electricity demand in an increasing number of countries, e.g.: Denmark: 42% of demand Uruguay: 15.5%

27 Source: Wind potential, Myanmar MOA for 30MW wind project (Three Gorges Corporation) in Ayeyarwady Region 19 projects, 4032 MW in planning stages

28 Biomass Sugar cane Rice husk Rubber wood Thailand: 3266 MW Slide 28

29 29

30 Large renewables and transmission Slide 30

31 Smaller renewables and transmission Slide 31

32 POLICIES AND REGULATION ON GRID

33 On-grid policies Policies to think about Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Selecting the option that meets needs at lowest cost including environmental and social costs Feed-in tariffs Energy efficiency or renewable energy targets Slide 33

34 National Electrification Program (NEP) Goal: 100% electricity access by 2030 First 5 years: $400 Million IDA loan from World Bank $300 Million grid expansion MOEE + $10 Million technical assistance $80 Million off-grid DRD + $10 Million technical assistance 34

35 Uganda GETFiT Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs Uganda utility REFiT Donors: Norway, Germany, UK and EU pay GETFiT premium Provide risk guarantees Provide technical assistance Slide 35

36 Uganda GETFiT Results: Leverage $400 million private financing Up to 20 projects 170 MW Slide 36

37 Electricity regulator Does not (yet) exist in Myanmar Referee who looks after interests of citizens Reviews power development plans Ensures investments by utilities are prudent Independent (not part of government) Authority to: Grant/withhold licenses Approve/reject tariffs Slide 37

38 TECHNOLOGY OFF-GRID Slide 38

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40 Biomass -- offgrid Royal Htoo Linn Manufacturing Co., Ltd Sittwe,Rakhine State 40

41 3MW Nam Khun, Kyaing Tong Kyi Thien Family Co. & Kyaing Tong Energy Co., Ltd.

42 Myaing village hydro 42

43 Hydro near Pinluang, Shan State

44 Myanmar Small Hydro potential 100 projects < 1 MW identified Many more exist, as yet unidentified Slide 44

45 Hydro flooding impact: big versus small Source: Natel Energy

46 Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand Built by government & community 40 kw Used to be off-grid; Making arrangements to sell electricity to grid

47 Mwenga 4 MW hydro Tanzania 800 households in 15 villages (expanding to 4000) & sells to the grid Slide 47

48 POLICIES AND REGULATION OFF GRID

49 Off-grid National Electrification Program (NEP) $80 Million off-grid DRD (+$10M TA) Mostly solar home systems ~ $7 million to support mini-grids 60% subsidy + 20% village payment + 20% developer (?) First call for proposals 49

50 Needed: mini-grids regulatory framework Mini-grid developers reluctant to build because Concerned that grid may arrive faster than expected, and all customers shift over to main grid. Concerned that competitors might steal good sites (especially an issue when subsidies start to be available) Lack of clarity about whether cost-reflective tariffs can be charged. Customers need confidence that: Mini-grid is safe Power is reliable Not too expensive Slide 50

51 Suggested elements of a mini-grid regulatory framework Up to date maps of the existing grid and mini-grids shall be made available on-line to the public Licensing: Streamlined for projects < 10 MW Voluntary for projects < 1 MW Provisional license: legal right to reserve a site subject to demonstrating progress Tariffs: permission to charge cost-reflective tariffs Options when main grid arrives Slide 51

52 Mini-grids and the Arrival of the National Grid

53 Before the grid arrives Customers Customers M M M M M M Mini-Grid National Grid Large Plants Small Power Producer Key: = power from utility = power from SPP M = meter 53

54 Small Power Distributor (SPD) Customers Customers M National Grid M M M M M M Mini-Grid Large Plants Small Power Producer Key: = power from utility = power from SPP M = meter 54

55 Small Power Producer (SPP) Customers Customers M M M M M M Mini-Grid National Grid M Large Plants Small Power Producer Key: = power from utility = power from SPP M = meter 55

56 Small Power Producer (SPP) regulations $ Thai Very Small Power Producer documents : Tanzania Small Power Producer documents:

57 Slide 57

58 Both SPP and SPD 58

59 Tariffs for Bulk Sales and Purchases Tariffs for Bulk Sales by the SPP 1. Buyer s (utility s) avoided cost, 2. seller s cost 3. bid price Who pays for premiums above buyer s avoided cost? Tariffs for Bulk Purchases by the SPP For backup or supplemental power Energy charge and demand charge 59

60 Buyout option but with backup electricity provided by old generator Customers Customers M M M M M M Mini-Grid National Grid Large Plants Small Power Producer (may operate as emergency backup plant) Key: = power from utility = power from SPP M = meter 60

61 Co-existence Slide 61

62 Assets abandoned Customers Customers National Grid Extension of National Grid Large Plants Small Power Producer 62

63 FINANCING

64 Financing grants equity debt guarantees insurance results-based financing carbon financing Slide 64

65 Renewable energy funds Slide 65

66 Infra Capital Myanmar Funded by UK Department for International Development (UKAid) Purpose: de-risk sustainable infrastructure Slide 66

67 Micro-finance Slide 67

68 Summary Most new electricity investments worldwide are renewable. Clean renewable energy makes sense for Myanmar On grid renewable energy a strong transmission and distribution system can accommodate affordable renewable energy into the country s mix Off-grid renewables energy good solution in rural areas where the grid doesn t reach. Off-grid mini-grid can become on-grid when grid arrives Technical assistance, technology & finance available Policy and regulatory framework IRP, Mini-grid/SPP policy Slide 68

69 Thank you