SUNRISE FROM THE WEST: THE GROWTH OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN CALIFORNIA

Transcription

1 SUNRISE FROM THE WEST: THE GROWTH OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN CALIFORNIA David Hochschild California Energy Commission 1

2 Hope & the Era of Climate Change 2

3 3

4 4

5 The 2020 Goal: 33% Renewables & 12 GW of Clean Distributed Generation & 1 million Electric Vehicles The Challenge is Big... 5

6 But Big Challenges Are What We Do 1972: Rand Corporation report: CA energy demand growing 8% per year, predicts 40 new nuclear power plants may be needed 1974: Jerry Brown elected Governor. California Energy Commission created to help CA lead on energy efficiency and renewables 1975: CA initiates first efficiency standards for buildings and appliances 6

7 California Advancing Energy Efficiency

8

9 2009: The Energy Commission s TV efficiency standards take effect, saving Californians $1 billion/year 2012: The plug-in charger efficiency standard begins, saves Californians $300 M/year 9

10 Building Standards (Title 24) = 14,000Gwh/year Total Savings 10

11 Default risks are 32% lower in energy efficient homes - Home Energy Efficiency and Mortgage Risks Research Report (March 2013, Institute for Market Transformation) 11

12 Governor Brown Increases CA RPS. 33% is a floor not a ceiling

13 The World s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant (Tower) Ivanpah Solar Thermal Project 393 MW San Bernardino County, CA 13

14 The World s Largest Thin Film Solar PV Project Desert Sunlight Solar Project 550 MW Riverside County, CA 14

15 The World s Largest Wind Project Alta Wind Energy Center 1550 MW Kern County, CA 15

16 The World s Largest Silicon PV Project Solar Star Project 579 MW Kern County, CA 16

17 The World s Largest Geothermal Power Plant Geysers Geothermal Power Plant 955 MW Lake County, CA 17

18 The World s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant (Trough) Solar Energy Generating System (SEGS) 310 MW San Bernadino County, CA 18

19 The World s Largest Iron-Chromium Flow Battery EnerVault Iron-Chromium Technology 1 MW-hr capacity at 250 kw (4 hour duration) Turlock, CA 19

20 Largest Manufacturing Plant in CA is Now Electric Vehicles Over 6000 workers now at Tesla Tesla Factory Fremont, CA MORE THAN 100,000 EV s AND PLUG-IN VEHICLES IN CALIFORNIA TODAY 20

21 CA Leads in New Solar Home Construction Over 13,000 New Solar Homes Installed in CA. 12,000 more under way. Zero Energy Community Rocklin, CA ZERO ENERGY HOMES TO BE STANDARD IN

22 70,000 60,000 65,000 Electric Vehicle Sales (2014 January July) 50,000 40,000 30,000 26,000 24,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 9,600 6,400 4,200 0 U.S. California China Japan Norway France Germany 22 Source: EV Obsession ( Alan Baum, Baum & Associates, 2014

23 Innovation in Electric Vehicles: 30 mile range, recharges in 10 minutes Proterra Battery Electric Bus 23

24 Lithium Ion Battery Cell Cost Forecast: 70% Reduction by 2020 Source: Roland Berger, Samsung 24

25 Solar Expected to be half of all Renewable Energy in California by 2020 Source: CPUC RPS Report

26 May 6, 1954:Roger Bannister Breaks the 4 Minute Mile The record was broken again 46 days later 26

27 Price (2010 $/W) Solar Panel Prices Have Dropped 98% Since $33.69 / W Silicon Shortage 2013 $0.65/W Cumulative Production (MW) Every Time Demand for Solar Doubles, Prices Go Down about 20% 27

28 Billions of Cell Phones Contracts In 1980, AT&T s global market study predicted there would 900,000 cell phone subscribers in the year In fact in 2000 there were 109 million Now, there are 6.8 billion Predicted Source: Rolliing Stone, July

29 Global PV Market GW Global Solar Market to Grow to 52 GW in GW Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 29

30 2013: Lancaster, CA becomes the first city in the US to mandate solar on Rex Parris Mayor of Lancaster all new construction 30

31 US State Solar Market Share Source: SPV Research 31

32 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 More Jobs in US Solar Industry than US Auto Manufacturing 0 Coal Mining US Iron and Steel Mill Industry US Auto Manufacturing US Solar Industry 32 Source: Solar Foundation and US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Auto Manufacturing # s do not include suppliers.

33 More Jobs in US Solar Industry than US Auto Manufacturing 160, , , ,000 89,838 86, , ,698 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Coal Mining US Iron and Steel Mill Industry US Auto Manufacturing US Solar Industry 33 Source: Solar Foundation and US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Auto Manufacturing # s do not include suppliers.

34 3 YEAR JOB GROWTH RATES % % 21% 0-10 Coal Mining 4% US Iron and Steel Mill Industry US Auto Manufacturing US Solar Industry 34 Source: Solar Foundation and US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Auto Manufacturing # s do not include suppliers.

35 The Latest Solar Customer: Solar Panels on the White House Roof 35

36 California Residential Electric Bills Are 20% Below the National Average 36

37 Learning from the German Experience Moving from 200 power plants to 2 million 37

38 Case Study in Reducing Impacts: Vasco Wind Energy Center Repowering 432 small turbines taken down and replaced with 34 new turbines Vasco Wind Energy Center, 78MW Contra Costa County RESULTS: Energy production tripled & avian mortality cut by 70% 38

39 Communication Towers 0.20% Vehicles 6.18% Power Lines 0.95% Annual U.S. Avian Mortality Caused by Humans: 3 Billion Birds Buildings 18.51% Wind Turbines 0.01% Cats 74.16% Source: The State of Birds Report,

40 Over 30 US military bases in CA Representing approximately $130B annually to the California Economy Navy: 50% renewables by 2020 Marines: zero fossil fuels on bases by Source: California Energy Commission, 2014 Geographic Information Systems Data

41 High speed rail is coming to California and it will be 100% powered by renewables 41

42 Federal Subsidies Have Favored Fossil Fuels Source: What Would Jefferson Do?, DBL Investors 42

43 Getting Smarter About Energy Savings 43

44 POLICY OPPORTUNITIES Net Metering 2.0 PACE Program Aggregate Procurement 2030 Target 44

45 THE BALANCING ACT Cost Environment Reliability 45

46 WHAT IS THE ROLE OF THE UTILITIES? They must be agents of change rather than victims of change 46

47 Drawing Lessons From Successful Campaigns The Story of Acid Rain 47

48 Reduction in Acid Rain Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program,

49 The Ozone Hole (expected) 49 Source: NASA Ozone Hole Watch,

50 Smoking in the US 50

51 70 % of Americans Who Smoke 1965: 60 Health warnings required on packaging : Cigarette tax doubles 1992: U.S. Bans Sale to Minors 2013: Smoking Rate Falls to 18% : Advertisements banned from TV 1998: CA Bans 1988: U.S. Bans Smoking in Bars Smoking on Airplanes 2014: CVS Stops cigarette sales at 7,600 retail pharmacies Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),

52 The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil. - Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister 52