Strategic Energy Analysis Center

Transcription

1 Strategic Energy Analysis Center NREL Planning & Analysis NCSL June 2009 Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Midwest Research Institute Battelle 1

2 Strategic Energy Analysis Center Strategic Energy Analysis Center Doug Arent, Director Technology Systems and Sustainability Analysis Technoeconomic Assessment Life Cycle Assessment Infrastructure & Systems Analytics Energy/Water Analysis Resource Use Optimization Market & Policy Impact Analysis Electric Regulation & Policy Transportation Market, Fuels, & Policies Green Power & REC Markets Economic Impact Analysis Advanced Financial Analytic Methods International R&D Program Benefits Assessment Portfolio and Risk Assessment Energy Forecasting & Modeling Group Energy Economics Energy System Planning Risk and Uncertainty Modeling Energy Infrastructure Planning Data Analysis & Visualization Geospatial Analytics RE & EE Data Warehouse Integrated Resource Assessment Advanced Visualization

3 NREL Strategic Energy Analysis Integrated analyses that advance the understanding of the value of technology in the context of dynamic global, national, and local markets, policies, energy resources and loads, and infrastructure.

4 Analysis Across the Framework Resource Analysis Where are the resources and how much do they cost? How much resource can contribute to a sustainable energy pathway? Technology Feasibility Analysis Which technologies have the greatest potential for economic success? Where should research efforts be focused? What are the necessary infrastructure systems and how much do they cost? What technology combinations enhance market adoption and sustainability? Energy Market Analysis What are the market adoption scenarios? What are the impacts, costs, and financial risks for market transformation? Which resource/technology combinations meet the needs of the various markets? Policy Analysis What are the impacts of various policy options on market adoption? What are the impacts of various policy options on technology evolution? How do policies at different scales interacts and form a comprehensive policy? Sustainability Analysis What are the sustainability impacts of different resource/technology options? What are the trade-offs between different energy pathways? What are the geographic differences in sustainability impacts? Analysis done across the framework permits a more comprehensive understanding of the various energy options.

5 Resource Use Optimization

6 Understanding Energy Resources and potential impact of technology advances on national goals Example: Solar resources in the Southwest. Resource (technical) potential to economic (e.g. commercially feasible) to accessible and links to transmission access, markets, pricing, technology adoption (learning) and thus technology advances. Gross irradiance is baseline: Analysis to refine to economic potential to accessible and linkage to technology adoption, learning and advances in technology.

7 Market Development Insights: ReEDS- Regional Energy Deployment Systems Model A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S. Designed to estimate market potential of energy technologies in the U.S. for the next years under different technology development and policy scenarios

8 ReEDS Model: Detailed Treatment of Wind Grid Integration Issues

9 National Renewable Energy Laboratory

10 Transmission Constraint Analysis

11 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Modeling Loads The Grid Reserve Margins Ancillary Services

12 PHEVs* Can Increase Wind Penetration * Assumes 50% PHEV-V2G penetration by 2050

13 Many (most?) major energy market drivers are highly uncertain and outside the scope of most energy market models 63 GW Science & Technology Advances, particularly For Basis Science Are also highly uncertain Coal declines CAAA deregulation Gas declines PIFUA prohibits Gas increases (50+ GW added in 2002) PIFUA changed PURPA CC efficiency Low price through deregulation Nuclear emerges Technology Available Too cheap to meter Nuclear decline Interest rates 3-Mile Island (1979) Chernobyl (1986) Regulation

14 What Might a Stochastic Model Show You? National Renewable Energy Laboratory Incorporating uncertainty into an energy market model conveys significantly more information than a single point estimate

15 Systems.

16 Environmental Analysis: Life Cycle Assessment nonrenewable energy Extraction process emissions energy raw materials waste materials energy emissions Waste disposal energy emissions energy emissions net emissions Process Intermediate feedstock Process Intermediate feedstock Process of Interest final product nonrenewable materials energy emissions energy emissions Intermediate feedstock Process raw materials energy Extraction process emissions Life cycle system boundary

17 Sustainable Energy Use Energy choices have global implications: Greenhouse gas emissions Water resource distribution Mineral consumption Equipment manufacturing and transportation Renewable energy technologies should be more sustainable Need to verify this is true before it s found out that we ve missed some important impacts Renewables are not a one-size-fits-all solution Resources geographically distributed Energy use patterns vary globally Growth rate and installed infrastructure may limit choices Economic optimization of the use of geographically-distributed resources

18 Sustainability Analysis Components of sustainability analysis Environmental Economics and financing Externalities costs Question being answered: What are the sustainability metrics for the blends of technologies available to meet different energy needs, given varying resource availabilities and development status? National Renewable Energy Laboratory

19 Policy Context: RPS Analysis, The Bingaman Bill National Renewable Energy Laboratory Example State Compliance Portfolio under RPS