The State of Renewable Energy in the Region Wind Ene rgy Te chnology &Tre nds

Transcription

1 The State of Renewable Energy in the Region Wind Ene rgy Te chnology &Tre nds

2 T e c h n o l o g y T r e n d s a n d F u t u r e C h a l l e n g e s M a r k e t T r e n d s a n d P o l i c y D r i v e r s W i n d E n e r g y i n P e n n s y l v a n i a

3 01 Technology trends and future challenges

4 Higher Towers, Bigger Rotors Ta k i n g a d va n t a g e o f l o w e r w i n d r e s o u r c e s Most high wind areas with good transmission access have been developed 4

5 Higher Towers, Bigger Rotors Ta k i n g a d va n t a g e o f l o w e r w i n d r e s o u r c e s New deployable land resulting from increasing hub height from 96m to 110m 1 Most high wind areas with good transmission access have been developed 5 1. Cotrell et al. Analysis of Transportation and Logistics Challenges Affecting Deployment of Larger Wind Turbines: Summary of Results, NREL, January 2014.

6 Infrastructure Limitations Tra n s p o r t a t i o n a n d Tra n s m i s s i o n Navigating curves, bridge underpasses, and tunnels becomes more challenging as components grow in size Infrastructure limits blade and tower size due to transportation needs 6

7 Infrastructure Limitations Tra n s p o r t a t i o n a n d Tra n s m i s s i o n Proposed Clean Line Energy transmission projects Source: cleanlineenergy.com Recent transmission investments for RE produced up to a 3.9 benefit to cost ratio Trabish, Herman K. 3 transmission projects that illustrate the importance in modernizing the grid, Utility Dive Online, 24 June 2016.

8 Storage Innovation Ke y t o h i g h e r R E p e n e t ra t i o n Compressed Air Pumped Water Battery Storage Source: dwell.com Source: dwell.com Source: dwell.com A Different Approach: Chemical Processes Electricity + Water (H 2 0) = 2 Hydrogen Gas (H 2 ) + Oxygen (O 2 ) Penetration rates in the 50% and higher range will require storage solutions 8

9 Offshore Wind in the US C h a l l e n g e s a n d I n c e n t i v e s Challenges: Siting Transmission Capital costs and land availability Incentives: East Coast Metropolis Energy intensity Growth internationally will reduce costs New policy initiatives (HI, MA, NY) The Block Island Wind Farm, the 1 st offshore project in the US, is under construction. 9

10 02 Market trends and policy drive rs

11 Installed Capacity G W a n d C o u n t i n g Total Installed Capacity, Year End 2015 Source: American Wind Energy Association Installed capacity has seen fourfold increase since U.S Wind Industry Annual Market Report: Year Ending 2015, American Wind Energy Association, 2016.

12 Current Activity G W U n d e r C o n s t r u c t i o n Capacity Under Construction, Q Source: American Wind Energy Association Total new installed capacity YTD 830 MW U.S Wind Industry Second Quarter 2016 Market Report, American Wind Energy Association, 21 July 2016.

13 Supply Chain Strategies F l e x i b i l i t y a n d T i m i n g Just in time Delivery Cash flow sensitivity and availability targets Predictive Maintenance Reducing risk of down time due to major component failure Data & Analytics Reducing cost of O&M to drive down cost of energy Repair and Reconditioning Maintaining an aging fleet in a cost effective manner There are are 48,500 operational operating wind turbines in the US U.S Wind Industry Annual Market Report: Year Ending 2015, American Wind Energy Association, 2016.

14 Policy Drivers P TC, C P P, a n d R P S Production Tax Credit (PTC) A federal tax credit for $23/MWh during the first 10 years of wind energy generation Phasing out over the next several years Clean Power Plan (CPP) EPA regulation to reduce CO 2 from electricity generation by 2030 States create their own compliance plan On hold pending legal challenges Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) State-based mandates to supply a % of electricity from RE California, There Oregon, are 48,500 and operating New York wind have turbines moved to in a the 50% US RPS 14

15 Corporate Power Purchasing N e w M a r k e t D r i v e r According to a recent Ceres analysis, Power Forward: Why the World s Largest Companies are Investing in Renewable Energy, more than 2/3 of Global Fortune 100 companies have made a commitment to reduce their GHG emissions. 52% of wind energy PPAs in 2015 were signed by non-utility buyers U.S Wind Industry Annual Market Report: Year Ending 2015, American Wind Energy Association, 2016.

16 03 Pennsylvania wind energy

17 PA Wind Industry 16 th i n N a t i o n f o r I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y 1,340 MW installed $2.7 billion capital investment Up to $5 million annual lease payments Over 1,000 jobs Source: American Wind Energy Association Only 40 MW under construction Pennsylvania wind energy avoided 2.4 million metric tons of CO 2 in Pennsylvania Wind Energy, American Wind Energy Association, 2015.

18 PA Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard 1 8 % b y Tier I: 8% of AEPS can be met with wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, methane, etc. Tier II: 10% to be met with distributed sources under 5 MW, waste coal, demand-side management, large hydro, etc. 0.5% set-aside for solar PV According to the 2014 Pennsylvania PUC AEPS report, existing and proposed facilities have effectively fulfilled requirements through PA utilities may procure compliance credits from anywhere within PJM 18

19 Clean Power Plan in PA 2 4 % r e d u c t i o n i n C O 2 b y New bill, signed into law, makes CPP compliance plan subject to legislative and public review and approval prior to submission to EPA. Could result in an insufficient plan being submitted to EPA Rejection of state plan without time to cure results in the imposition of the Federal Implementation Plan The Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that without complimentary policies, renewable energy generation in PA will likely only require a small increase to meet compliance goals. If the UCS policy proposals are implemented, potential for 4,000 MW of new wind Meeting the Clean Power Plan in Pennsylvania, Union of Concerned Scientists, February 2016.

20 CONCLUSIONS T e c h n o l o g y t r e n d s a n d s t o r a g e i n n o v a t i o n w i l l h e l p w i n d r e a c h h i g h e r l e v e l s o f g r i d p e n e t r a t i o n. P r i v a t e s e c t o r t r e n d s h a v e t h e p o t e n t i a l t o o v e r c o m e p o l i c y s h o r t f a l l s t o s u s t a i n g r o w t h. N a t i o n a l g r o w t h w i l l h e l p t o n u r t u r e l o c a l s u p p l y c h a i n b u s i n e s s e s a n d m a n u f a c t u r i n g.

21 Gamesa Cutting-edge technology