Changing energy markets Key challenges and opportunities

Transcription

1 Changing energy markets Key challenges and opportunities IEA EBC meeting, March 16th 2017 Adeline Duterque, Strategy Department, ENGIE Confidentiel Restreint Libre Interne

2 The beginnings of energy transition : What can we observe today? 1. Markets over supplied - Gas : sluggish demand : the gas market has entered a period of oversupply - Power : decreasing RES costs ; the share of renewable sources in global power generation continued to progress in No overall optimization of RES capacity under FIT, higher investment premiums $ 2. Economics - Gas : HH below $3/Mmbtu in 2016, European gas prices reached their lowest level since 2012 in May Power : low wholesale market price in Europe (but increasing retail price) - Oil prices have been decreasing and could experience strong volatility : a new boom and bust cycle or the beginning of a new paradigm? 3. Environmental targets - CO 2 emissions stable in In Europe, gas fired units reclaimed market shares but recent gas-fired power plants decommissionned while old coal power plants keep running 17/03/2017 2

3 Adaptation of the market design requested in the short term Solutions Description Ensure system operability and safeguard system adequacy Strengthen the CO 2 signal Ensure proper remuneration for new RES investments Faster markets: shorter trading products, reduced gate closure times. Increase the spatial price resolution: Locational pricing, or nodal pricing encourage dynamic retail pricing Introduce floor and roof cap prices Long-term contracts through competitive auctions $ Ensure proper remuneration for existing assets Remove distorsions due to forced RES subsidized growth not in adequacy with demand growth, level-playing field amongst participants (possibility to rebill imbalances), But will it be sufficient in the long run? 3 17/03/2017 3

4 Competitive solar and wind bringing energy costs (and prices) closer to zero Wind and solar now far cheaper than conventional energy sources New technologies bring the promise of nearly infinite, quasi-free energy Price of MWh of recent wind and solar tenders 31 USD/MWh 30 USD/MWh 26 USD/MWh 31 USD/MWh wind solar 4

5 Battery storage technologies in a solar-like cost and volume race Battery costs and energy density Perspectives of the Lithium-Ion battery market (Unit: $billion) Energy storage Electric vehicles Mobile IT Source: International Information Technology octobre

6 Electric and digital mobility in an exponential drive Cumulative sales of cars and light utility vehicles achieved the 2 unit milestone in M. December 2016, China Will Replace All 67,000 Fossil-Fueled Taxis In Beijing With Electric Cars 6

7 The internet of things and big data turning homes and buildings into active participants in the energy system Number of connected objects in the world In thousand The Internet Of Everything E 2016E 2018E Computers Smartphones Tablets Internet of Things Connected TVs Portable technologies Connected automobiles Source: BI Intelligence Estimates 7

8 New hydrogen technologies and the incoming substitution of fossil fuels 5 technology disruptions 1 Energy sources (energy sources) 2 Generation (electrolysis technologies) 3 Storage (pressurized and in saline cavities) 4 Conversion into power (fuel cells) 5 Applications 8

9 There is a Path Towards 100% RES in 2050 Gas will keep a significant share in the energy mix, whatever the environmental constraints In the long term, the penetration of green gases will be highly dependent on environmental constraints In a 100% RES scenario in the electricity sector, green gases become competitive and can reach a significant share of the energy mix Significant investment is made in new CCGT s between 2025 and 2040 to ensure transition, chasing out coal. They remain available in 2050; this inherited capacity favors a higher biogas penetration, at the 2050 horizon, than in the vision ex nihilo. Yearly production by category of assets 100% RES scenario 2050 Summary Presentation, February 15th,

10 New challenges arising from high RES scenarios : some questions to be addressed In a 100% RES scenario, the development of CCGT capacity needed for seasonal backup will be conditioned to the definition of a new market design. The current market design, based on variable cost, will need to be adapted Decentralization: How to cope adequately with distributed generation and local energy communities (local markets?) Networks pricing structure : need to evolve from a demand-driven structure towards prosumer-driven, bi-directional flows Impact of EV batteries on short term storage devices and long term flexibility devices Oil : new paradigm or traditional boom and bust cycle? High CO 2 price requires ; CO 2 price probably no longer sustainable as a unique incentive for decarbonation? Steering Committee Meeting December 16th