Thailand Power Development Plan ( ) TANONGSAK WONGLA

Transcription

1 Thailand Power Development Plan ( ) TANONGSAK WONGLA August 2013

2 GOV. POLICY Structure of Thailand Power Sector Regulators EGAT (44%) IPPs (38%) Imports (7%) SPPs (10%) VSPPs (<< 1%) Producers Transmission EGAT Transmission System (100%) Distribution MEA (28%) PEA (71%) MEA/PEA Customers Egat Direct (1%) BKK,NBI,SPK (28%) Other province (71%) SPPs Direct BKK/ Rural Note : numbers in () are market shares; As of April 2014 : Electricity Generator Authority of Thailand (EGAT), Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA). 2

3 (MW) Power Generation Installed Capacity as May * May % 10 % 11 % SPP, 3 525, 11% Import/ Exchange 2,405, 7% % 38 % 39 % 38 % 38 % 2014* EGAT, 14,708, 44% % 48 % 46 % 45 % 44 % IPP, , 38% * Total 33,379 MW 3

4 (GWh) Power Generation by Fuel Type % 18 % 20 % 6 % 20 % * Jan April 20 % Import, 3,962, 7% Hydro 2,286, 4% Oil 685, 1% RE 1,468, 2% Coal/Lignite 12,446, 22% 2014* Natural Gas 36,881, 64% % % % * Total 57,728 GWh 4

5 Net Peak Generation Requirement (on EGAT system) MW 28, Apr 2014 (26,942 MW) 16 May 2013 (26,598 MW) 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

6 (GWh) Electricity consumption in each sector * Jan Apr 2014* User Growth (%) Share (%) Residential Industrial Small Enterprise Business Industrial Govt & Non Profit Business Agriculture Small Gen. Public Service Other Residential Govt. Free Agriculture Other** 6

7 PDP Mar 2010: Cabinet approved PDP 2010 Long-term Plan: 20 Years Emphasize power supply security concurrently with environmental protection Give importance to public participation Supply Security Proper percentage of power generation reserve of the country Diversification of fuel sources & types for power generation - Purchase from neighboring countries - Reduce dependence on natural gas Environmental Protection Reduce GHG emission from new power generation facilities Promote RE generation in line with the 15- year RE Development Plan Improve energy efficiency (DSM) Promote efficient power generation, using Cogeneration System 7

8 PDP 2010 Revision Outcome: Accelerate EGAT s plant (Chana, Wangnoi) Increase EGAT s plant (North Bangkok) Increase SPP Cogeneration Outcome: Reduce Coal power plant, NPP Increase RE Increase NG power plant Increase energy efficiency Higher load demand than forecasting IPP construction delay Rev.1 (30 Nov 2010) Rev.2 (3 May 2011) Nuclear Power Plant Crisis in Japan New government policy AEDP and EEDP launched New target in CO2 emission Rev.3 (19 Jun 2012) Outcome: Reduce NPP Accelerate SPP Cogeneration Improve NG supply plan and infrastructure 8

9 Summary: PDP 2010 Rev.3 Generating Capacity PDP 2010 Unit : MW Installed Capacity at end ,395 Increased (new) Capacity 55,130* Decommissioned Plants - 16,839 Total Generating Capacity at end ,686 * No. of New Plants during Nuclear Power Plant 1,000 MW Combined Cycle Clean Coal-fired Gas Turbine Co Generation 6,475 Renewable Energy (SPP, VSPP, EGAT) 9,481 Purchase from abroad 6,572 2,000 (2 plants) 25,451 (29 plants) 4,400 (5 plants) 750 (3 plants) 9

10 Fuel Mix for Power Generation MWh Diesel Renewable Fuel Oil EGAT-TNB Natural Gas Import Coal Lignite Nuclear Nuclear 10 10

11 Link between Power Development Plan and Sustainability Assessment in the Area of Economics Information in power development plan can be used an initial inputs for the sustainability assessment. Number of new power plants to be constructed Type of nuclear power plant to be introduced Political climate, including the energy policy, of the country In turn, the results of the sustainability assessment can help identify the gaps needed to be fulfilled in order to follow the policy, or help improving the policy in order to achieve the sustainable power supply scheme. Examples: The cost of nuclear is higher than coal but slightly lower than gas. The policy maker needs to seek for the advantages of the nuclear to offset the high cost, e.g., energy supply security. Total investment needed for construction of a nuclear power plant is larger than the investment limit. The policy maker can advise the government to make the NPP project a national project in order to reduce the investment risk. 11

12 Thank you for your kind attention 12