US EPA s domestic and international climate and air quality co-benefits activities

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1 US EPA s domestic and international climate and air quality co-benefits activities Dale Evarts Climate, International and Multimedia Group International Workshop on Co-benefit Approaches 13 February, 2012 Kanagawa, Japan

2 Key Messages Greater focus on addressing climate under the US Clean Air Act than in the past Creates more opportunities for integrating climate & air quality US EPA is partnering internationally to leverage links between air quality and climate policy & programs EPA is developing new analytical approaches to understand science of climate/air quality impacts and find common policy solutions 2

3 Climate in the U.S. Clean Air Act (1970) [Air pollution] effects on welfare includes, but is not limited to, effects on soils, water, crops, vegetation, manmade materials, animals, wildlife, weather, visibility, and climate In practice, climate effects were not sufficiently understood or quantified to affect policy decisions such as the level of the secondary national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) 3

4 Recent Climate Policy under the CAA Supreme court decision -- Massachusetts vs. EPA: Ruling held that the EPA has the authority to regulate GHGs as pollutants under the Clean Air Act (April 2007) EPA GHG Endangerment Findings: Two distinct findings under section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act (December 2009) Endangerment Finding: Current and projected concentrations of the mix of six key GHGs in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare Cause or Contribute Finding: Combined emissions of CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, and HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the threat of climate change Clean Air Act Rulemakings Light Duty Vehicle Rules (final for vehicles ; proposed for vehicles ) CAA permitting for GHG (Tailoring Rule final, 2010) Renewable Fuel Standard (final, 2011) GHG s from fossil fuel-fired power plants and petroleum refineries (scheduled for final rule in 2012) For details on CAA GHG rules, see 4

Other EPA Actions to Address Climate Change Regulatory GHG Reporting

gov/climatechange/emissions/ghgrulemaking.

Finalized: December 2010 (Office of Water) http://water.epa.

cfm GHG Reporting from CO 2 injection & geologic sequestration Finalized:

5 Other EPA Actions to Address Climate Change Regulatory GHG Reporting Program Final: October Geologic Sequestration of CO 2 Underground Injection Control rule Finalized: December 2010 (Office of Water) GHG Reporting from CO 2 injection & geologic sequestration Finalized: December Voluntary Several programs focused on promoting clean, efficient energy State and Local Climate and Energy Program 5

6 State & Urban Programs Communities within the US have established voluntary programs designed to reduce energy use as a part of their air quality management strategies. Areas include Texas, Louisiana, Connecticut, the metropolitan Washington, DC region, Bay Area, CA, and some tribal areas. Programs emphasize energy efficiency and alternative energy production to reduce levels of ozone precursors Areas receive resource and technical help in implementing and documenting air quality improvements from these programs Upcoming report, Roadmap for Incorporating Energy Efficiency/Renewable Energy Policies and Programs into State and Tribal Implementation Plans, will provide guidance for States to include energy efficiency and renewable energy in future air quality management plans. 6

State & Urban Programs The Bay Area Air Quality Management district (San Francisco Bay Area) in 2010 put forward a multipollutant clean air plan with 55 proposed control measures to reduce ozone,

7 State & Urban Programs The Bay Area Air Quality Management district (San Francisco Bay Area) in 2010 put forward a multipollutant clean air plan with 55 proposed control measures to reduce ozone, particulate matter, air toxics, and GHGs as a part of an integrated control strategy. Plan responds to tightened national ozone and PM standards Found that an integrated approach which maximized climate co-benefits would help meet current and future air quality standards. Benefits from control strategies for each pollutant were compared to find most cost effective solutions and maximize co-benefits. Benefits expected to be approximately US$770 Million/year 7

International Partnerships Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves 248 partners including developed and developing countries, NGOs, and corporations Addressing

Organization, Climate and Clean Air Initiative EPA s Integrated Environmental Strategies Program partnering with 8 countries to develop integrated

8 International Partnerships Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves 248 partners including developed and developing countries, NGOs, and corporations Addressing Black Carbon Internationally UN Environment Programme, UN Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, Arctic Council, International Maritime Organization, Climate and Clean Air Initiative EPA s Integrated Environmental Strategies Program partnering with 8 countries to develop integrated assessments and polices to reduce GHG and air pollution Global Methane Initiative Partnership with 41 countries; founding partners account for ~60% of methane emissions 8

9 Climate and Air Quality Analysis Tools US EPA is developing tools to analyze the co-benefits from air quality and climate linked policy responses, including: Understanding the linked climate and air quality atmospheric response to current and future emissions Estimating air quality and climate impacts of emission mitigation strategies Predicting how the industrial and energy sectors will respond to proposed combined air quality and climate management approaches 9

10 Air quality under future climate Global Emissions Scenario Future Climate Conditions Future U.S. Meteorology Future ambient air quality Global climate model Downscaling methods Regional air quality models The EPA Office of Research and Development has conducted and funded several projects analyzing the expected effects of future climate change on air pollution concentrations in the US. These studies model the effects on domestic air pollution from changing global climate conditions. Future work includes linking regional air quality & meteorological models to understand the regional climate impacts of air pollution 10

Regional PM response varies Regional increase in ozone concentrations Source: Figure 33 from EPA Assessment, 2009 Assessment

11 Air quality under future climate Climate related changes in average wintertime PM2.5 concentrations in 2020 Climate related increases in average summertime ozone in 2050 Air quality under future climate Regional PM response varies Regional increase in ozone concentrations Source: Figure 33 from EPA Assessment, 2009 Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on Regional U.S. Air Quality: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Ground-Level Ozone (Global Change Research Program, April 2009) 11

12 Global Health and Climate Impacts of Emissions Reductions Objective: Calculate change in PM 2.5 concentration and premature mortality that could be achieved by reducing BC emissions in several world regions and economic sectors Step 1: Model BC emissions reductions Global Regional Sectoral Global chemical transport model Step 2: Estimate Δ in PM 2.5 concentrations Health impact function Radiative transfer model Step 3a: Estimate health benefits (Δ PM 2.5 -related mortality) Step 3b: Estimate climate benefits (Δ Direct Radiative Forcing) 12

13 Impacts of halving global anthropogenic emissions Reduction in PM 2.5 Avoided annual deaths Global total = 157,000 1,205,000 Anenberg et al. ACP,

14 Develop Emission Scenarios to Achieve Policy Goals We are developing tools to link benefit estimates directly to policy constraints on emissions and ambient concentrations to understand trade offs and maximize co-benefits. Emission control optimization Step 5: Suggested policy constraints Emissions Ambient concentrations Compare estimated benefits with policy goals Step 1: Model emissions reductions Global Regional Sectoral Step 2: Estimate Δ in concentrations Global chemical transport model Health impact function Radiative transfer model Step 3: Estimate and health and climate benefits 14

15 GLIMPSE GLIMPSE models the radiative forcing impacts from shortlived climate forcers under scenarios of future emissions. It identifies specific fuel and energy technology mixes in response to constraints set by air quality and climate policy. Initial results demonstrate common solutions for near and long-term climate and air quality goals. A screening tool to aid policymakers in identifying and evaluating options for air quality and climate policies. GEOS-Chem Lidort Integrated with MARKAL for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration 15

16 GLIMPSE: Sample results We show the effects of adding a 2050 CO 2 reduction target of 50% from 2005 levels to existing air quality regulations Demonstrate how the energy production system responds to a GHG emission constraint Find future emission rates from the changes in the energy production system We compare the radiative forcing and health outcomes against two baselines: 1. No air quality or climate regulations 2. Current air quality regulations 16

17 For information about the emission scenarios and global radiative forcing sensitivity information from the GLIMPSE project, please contact: GLIMPSE: Farhan Akhtar Rob Pinder MARKAL: Dan Loughlin GEOS-Chem/LIDORT Adjoint: Daven Henze

18 Remaining Questions and Analytical Challenges How will future climate conditions AND future emissions interact to affect air quality and attainment of air quality goals? Currently we have looked in isolation at either future climate conditions OR future emissions projections but we need to understand how BOTH of these factors will interact to influence future air quality What are the potential climate and public health co-benefits of specific intervention strategies? Specifically, which mitigation strategies, in which sectors and in which geographic areas, are best for public health and climate? How will current or future policies aimed at achieving one goal (such as climate) impact other goals (such as public health)? Do current policy make sense when we consider a fully integrated picture? How can we solve BOTH problems without compromising either? How will climate change affect the sensitivity of human health and ecosystems to air pollution exposures, and the resulting impacts? Just beginning to understand how climate may change our RESPONSES to air pollution. 18

19 EPA Resources available to the research community GLIMPSE 50-year scenarios of US emissions; radiative forcing sensitivity to high-resolution changes in global emissions BENMAP redesign Open source implementation specifically redesigned to model the response of international populations to air pollution improvements STAR Grant program offering support to researchers studying the interactions between air pollution and climate 19

20 THANK YOU! Dale Evarts, Group Leader Climate, International & Multimedia Group Office of Air and Radiation US EPA

-IBC. An integrated assessment tool for emission scenario and benefit estimation. Harry Vallack Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

-IBC. An integrated assessment tool for emission scenario and benefit estimation. Harry Vallack Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) -IBC An integrated assessment tool for emission scenario and benefit estimation Climate and Clean Air Coalition Scientific Advisory Panel Expert Workshop Metrics for Evaluating and Reporting on Black Carbon